UMNO bakal alami nasib seperti MCA 2008

Badan Pemikir Kajian Politik untuk Perubahan (KPRU) meramalkan Umno akan kehilangan banyak kerusi parlimen sebagai yang dialami pada Mac 2008.

KPRU membuat ramalan ini berdasarkan lima  faktor utama yang memperlihatkan Najib sudah semakin tidak releven di mata rakyat Malaysia.

Faktor pertama berkait rapat dengan kejatuhan populariti Presiden Barisan Nasional (BN) Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak berbanding peningkatan populariti pemimpin Pakatan Rakyat Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

Faktor kedua adalah dasar 1Malaysia gagal untuk menaik taraf hidup rakyat Malaysia. Najib mengumumkan bahawa kadar kemiskinan negara telah jatuh kepada 1.7 peratus sahaja.

Walhal dijangka angka sebenar kadar kemiskinan dalam Malaysia sebenarnya mencapai sebanyak 19 peratus mengambil kira kadar pendapatan isu rumah kerajaan dan Laporan Tinjauan Kemudahan Asas 2009 oleh Jabatan Perangkaan Malaysia.

Pada masa yang sama, kata KPRU kerajaan BN terpaksa membelanjakan hampir RM3 bilion bagi pemberian Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysa (BR1M).

Begitu juga  60 peratus penjawat awam tidak mampu dari segi kewangan untuk membeli rumah serta kegagalan Skim Rumah Pertamaku untuk membantu warga muda untuk membeli rumah.

Tiada kemampuan

Jenama 1Malaysia juga dapat dilihat sebagai kegagalan Najib apabila kira-kira 250 buah Kedai Rakyat 1Malaysia (KR1M) telah dibuka seluruh negara untuk membantu memberikan barangan murah kepada rakyat Malaysia.

Najib juga merancang membuka lagi 57 kedai KR1M seluruh negara. Ini bermakna rakyat Malaysia tidak mempunyai kemampuan dari segi kewangan untuk membeli barangan berkualiti pada harga yang berpatutan.

Faktor ketiga Anwar mempunyai reputasi yang lebih positif berbanding Najib khususnya dari segi keupayaan tadbir urus kewangan negara dan penggubalan dasar baru yang dapat membawa pembaharuan seiring dengan tuntutan sezaman.

“Pada tahun 2007, hutang negara adalah sebanyak RM267 bilion. Pada 2013, hutang negara telah melonjak kepada RM502 bilion.

“Ketika Anwar  menjadi menteri kewangan, kadar defisit negara telah diubah menjadi kadar surplus dengan tahun 1998, sebelum beliau dipecat, Malaysia mencapai surplus sebanyak 2.4 peratus.

“Keadaan surplus ini terus menjadi deifisit sejurus selepas Anwar dipecat. Ini berbanding dengan kadar defisit di bawah Najib yang melonjak kepada 5.4 peratus pada tahun 2010,” tambah kenyataan itu.

KPRU  mendakwa  Najib juga gagal untuk menaikkan jumlah tenaga kerja mahir dalam negara memandangkan 80 peratus tenaga kerja dalam negara hanya mempunyai lepasan Sijil Pelajaran Malaysia (SPM).

Anwar lebih positif

Selain itu, reputasi Anwar Iebih positif di mata orang awam berbanding Najib.

Faktor keempat yang akan mempengaruhi keputusan di PRU 13 ini adalah dasar Najib yang dilihat sebagai lemah dan tidak berpendirian tetap. Ini mengikut 10 kes dasar ‘flip-flop’ yang pernah dilaporkan oleh KPRU yang berlaku di bawah pentadbiran Najib.

“Antara 10 kes tersebut adalah terdiri daripada dasar ‘flip-flop’ Lynas, kegagalan pertukaran saham Malaysia Airlines dan Air Asia sehingga kepada pembatalan Sistem Saraan Baru Perkhidmatan Awam (SBPA) selepas penentangan oleh para penjawat awam.

“Kegagalan Najib untuk berpendirian tegas kepada dasar-dasar negara yang mempengaruhi kehidupan harian menunjukkan beliau tidak mempunyai keupayaan untuk membawa Malaysia kepada arah sebuah negara maju yang berpendapatan tinggi.

“Ianya juga memberi gambaran bahawa Najib tidak mempunyai kebijaksanaan untuk memutuskan dasar yang paling efektif demi rakyat tanpa mengayakan kroni-kroni beliau,” kata kenyataan itu.

Faktor kelima adalah skandal-skandal yang kembali menghantui Najib dan pentadbiran beliau.

Antaranya termasuk Scorpene, pembunuhan Altantuya, kritikan terhadap tindakan melampau ke atas para peserta perhimpinan Bersih 2.0 dan 3.0, skandal National Feedlot Center (NFC), kegagalan pentadbiran Najib mengendalikan pencerobohan Lahad Datu dengan pantas dan efektif, skandal perbicaraan liwat terhadap Anwar, skandal kroni AES, skandal kroni emel 1Malaysia dan skandal kotor melibatkan Ketua Menteri Sarawak dan keluarganya.

Tinjauan oleh Pusat Demokrasi dan Pilihan Raya Universiti (Umcedel) telah menemui kadar kelayakan Najib untuk memangku jawatan sebagai Perdana Menteri semakin berkurangan di mana hanya 39 peratus  berbanding Anwar  yang  43 peratus kepercayaan para respondan.

Ini adalah pengurangan sebanyak empat peratus daripada tinjauan yang dilakukan pada awal tahun 2013.-Muda Md.Noor,fmt

The New Malay Dilemma — stay with UMNO or not...

There appears to be a reversal of roles among Malay and Chinese voters when comparing the 1999 general election to the current May 5 polls, according to analysts.

According to a report in the Singapore Straits Times today, in 1999 many Malays were upset with Umno-led Barisan Nasional (BN) over the sacking of former Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

But Chinese voters backed BN, arguing against changing a stable government that had grown the economy, never mind the perceived corruption in parts of the government.

Thirteen years down the road, the roles are reversed, said the daily.

It said the issue of corruption is finding more resonance now with Chinese voters, many of whom are swinging towards Anwar. That has given the opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR) coalition its best chance to topple the long-serving BN.

But now that BN seems weakened, the Malays are getting cold feet, the daily reported some analysts as saying.

Many Malays who had misgivings about BN earlier now seem to be rooting for the coalition, it said, and according to several private pollsters and surveys by government agencies there are sound reasons for this.

The Straits Times report said that under BN, the Malay community’s wealth and educational levels have risen sharply over the decades. Some Malays are also concerned that the opposition PR pact, if it came to power, would dilute Malay and Muslim rights, it added.

“There is a long, deep-seated relationship between the Malay community and Umno,” the newspaper quoted writer Karim Raslan as saying.

Malays form 63 per cent of the country’s population of 28.3 million.

In a poll by the Merdeka Center conducted in January and February, 72 per cent of Malays said the country was headed in the right direction, versus just 20 per cent of Chinese who felt that way. Asked if they were happy with the government, 63 per cent of Malays polled said they were compared with 20 per cent of Chinese.

Umno leaders have long been a steady presence in towns and villages, attending to community needs and winning the loyalty of Malay voters.

But this could be changing, Raslan was reported as saying, with younger Malays not as anchored to Umno.

This could be called the New Malay Dilemma, said the Straits Times.

It said although they still embrace Umno, many Malays are uncomfortable with its image as a party that has not always acted firmly against the corrupt.

The young and Internet-savvy avidly follow the scandals that have surrounded some BN figures, such as the one where a government soft loan to breed cows was ploughed into buying expensive real estate, the report said.

Urban Malays, along with the Chinese and Indians, are also irked by other issues, for instance, inflation and rising crime in Kuala Lumpur and Johor Baru, it added.

However, the Singapore daily said the government is still reasonably certain that come Election Day, Malays will still vote for Malaysia’s Grand Old Party, Umno.

PR has said it plans to ease affirmative action for Malays, and help everyone based on needs, not race.
According to the report, some Malays are worried that the Chinese, who dominate business and the rich lists, would become even more dominant economically.

BN is tapping into these fears by — indirectly and directly — fielding two controversial candidates from Malay supremacy group Perkasa. Should they win, it would be a clear sign that the Malays are suspicious of PR’s agenda, it reported.

And while PR component part PAS talks a lot about religion, there are Malays who feel it has failed to protect Malay and Islamic rights in Selangor and Penang, where PR is in power, the daily reported.

Also, in places where PAS has implemented Islamic laws, not all Malays liked what they saw.

The paper reported that while Malays do want Islam retained as Malaysia’s official religion and do not want alcohol sold in convenience stores, they baulk at laws that, for instance, require men and women in PAS-controlled Kelantan to use separate supermarket counters.

“Umno practises moderation in religion and offers a balance between material and spiritual development,” it quoted Kelantan BN campaign director Hassan Harun as saying.

In the end though, it could come down to a perception that life has indeed improved for the majority of Malaysians.-malaysian insider

 

Ia dijadual berlangsung di Lot 19, Jln Thambi Abdullah (belakang Sri Kota Supermarket) jam 8 malam. (peta: KLIK INI)

Turut berucap ialah Datuk S Ambiga, Hishamuddin Rais, Haris Ibrahim, Dato Oms Thiagarajan.

Jam 9.30 malam pula, Nurul Izzah dijadual berada di ceramah kelompok di Petaling Bahagia berdekatan KFC, Jalan Puchong (Peta: KLIK INI)

Jam 10 malam, beliau hadir di Pentas anak muda di PPR Seri Anggerik, Jalan Klang Lama. (Peta: KLIK INI)

cheers.