Dari laporan yang diterima PH hilang harapan untuk menang di CH. Di situ kawasan Orang Asli yang sudah terbuka minda mereka untuk memperjuangkan nasib mereka. Calon BN bukan calang-calang orang, bukan tok batin menyumpit kera tapi seorang pegawai polis berpangkat tinggi, dan seorang siswazah Ph.D. Dia pula seorang Islam. Kesetiaan Orang Asli kepada pemimpin mereka dari keturunan sama menjadikan calon BN punya harapan cerah untuk menang di lubuk Orang Asli.
Dari segi pemilihan calon BN lebih bijak dari PH yang menganggap calon berbangsa India boleh menyemput para dewa membantunya. Besar kemungkinan dewa Syiva, dewa kehancuran, yang turun padang. Maka ayoyolah calon PH.
Sebenarnya kemenangan BN bukan kerana perompak kelas cakrawala Najib mendapat sokongan para pengundi CH. Impak Najib tak ada. Pihak UMNO dan PAS putarbelit setero lama, iaitu anti DAP yang dikatakan anti Melayu, anti Islam, anti hak istoimewa Melayu, dan mahu laksanakan konsep 'Malaysia Malaysia' yg ditentang orang Melayu.
Anti DAP masih menebal di kalangan orang Melayu. Politik Malaysia sejak Merdeka hingga sekarang dan beberapa pru akan datang tetap berbau perkauman. Ada semacam kegelojohan di pihak DAP dan PKR hendak menguasai pimpinan kerajaan PH, dan menyingkirkan Tun M.
Hati-hati jangan salah perhitungan nanti buruk akibatnya. Walaupun Tun Mahathir berkempen di CH namun beliau tidak boleh menyelamatkan calon PH dari DAP yang tidak disenangi oleh majoriti para pengundi di situ.
Dari berbagai laporan dikatakan jentera PH lemah. Kononnya para juak-juak BERSATU lebih banyak menyidai diri, bergambar dengan para menteri dari melaksanakan amanah parti. Dalam perang siber juak-juak BERSATU gagal menentang berbagai tuduhan dan kecaman dari pihak musuh. Sebahagian besar juak-juak itu dianggap tukang 'potong dan tampal' saja.
PRK Semenyih akan menjadi ukuran apakah BERSATU masih gagah perkasa, dijulang rakyat atau sebaliknya. Di sini calon BERSATU akan menentukan nasib. Pada PRU 14 PAS mendapat 6.000 undi. Semenyih majoriti Melayu. TSMY sebagai pengerusi BERSATU mesti mempastikan calon BERSATU menang selesa. Kalau BERSATU kalah TSMY wajar letak jawatan kerana kepimpinannya tidak ada oomph lagi.
Jangan bersilat kata, memutar lidah mendabik diri kononnya PH gagah perkasa kerana para pemimpin PH yg super hebat. Itu fantasi untuk menyedapkan diri. Maaf cakap hanya aura, ketokohan dan kewibawaan Tun Mahathir sebagai pemimpin negara bertaraf negarawan yg menghidupkan kerajaan PH. Para menteri lain jangan khayal dengan kuasa pinjaman Allah.
Para juak-juak, macai-macai yang minum sisa Tun jangan berlagak seperti ayam jantan pondan berkokok seluruh kampung tapi ekor berbau tahi. Ingat yang menentukan kemenangan dan kehancuran kuasa ialah kuasa Allah dan kuasa undi rakyat, bukan para pemimpin parti politik yang bodoh sombong, seperti merak di kayangan.- Yahaya Ismail.
PRK P078 CH - Analisis keputusan pengundian - IDE
Selepas CH,jika PH tak berubah,pengundi wajib kasi warning melaui Semenyih.
Analisis kekalahan PH di Parlimen CH...
Sejak hari pertama saya tiba di Cameron Highland, saya dapati sebahagian besar Parlimen Cameron Highlands terutama di Parlimen Jelai adalah kawasan Majoriti Peneroka FELDA dan Orang Asli yang mana kedua2 kelompok ini berkait rapat dengan FELDA dan JAKOA.
8 bulan kita mentadbir Putrajaya, amat sedikit atau hampir tiada langsung program2 kerakyatan, mendekati rakyat, penerangan dibuat oleh Kerajaan melalui 2 Agensi ini.
Dengan ertikata lain, kita sendiri tahu Peneroka FELDA dan OA adalah "Fix Deposite" BN sejak sekian lama tapi kita tidak ambil endah perkara ini.
Akibatnya bila datang PRK di lokasi 2 kelompok terbesar ini, kita sebagai Kerajaan Memerintah sendiri GAGAL menembus masuk ke kubu2 2 kelompok ini manakala lawan kita BN "selesa" keluar masuk dan terus menguasai 2 kawasan ini.
Pemilihan Calon BN juga menjadi faktor utama kemenangan mereka dan di sebelah PH, kita terpaksa terima hakikat bahawa Calon "Recycle" kita semakin tidak diterima.
2 PDM tradisi yang selalu dimenangi Mano mencatat keputusan mengejutkan. 1 Kawasan Majoriti India dan 1 kawasan Majoriti Cina di Tanah Rata menolak Mano diatas kertas undi.
Kerajaan wajib beri penumpuan pada FELDA dan JAKOA jika mahu menang kerusi2 "Fix Deposite" BN dlm PRK2 atau PRU akan datang.
Kena lebih serius perbanyakkan program2 mendekati pengundi melalui FELDA dan JAKOA.
Peneroka FELDA dan Komuniti OA tak peduli pada isu2 besar 1MDB, TH, Tol yang tiada kaitan dengan mereka.
Mereka cuma peduli apa yg Kerajaan beri pada mereka atau sekurang2nya permudahkan kehidupan mereka.
Perkara mudah yang Kerajaan PH abaikan. - Mohd Fauzi Mohd Azmi
PH jangan anggap dirinya arnab, UMNO-PAS sebagai kura-kura
PAS carries UMNO to victory,even
as PH doubles its orang asli vote...
Barisan Nasional (BN) cannot take full credit for its win in the Cameron Highlands by-election as it would not have happened without PAS’ support.
Political analyst associate professor Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said PAS voters were the biggest contributors to the increase in BN’s vote majority in Cameron Highlands compared with in the 14th general election last year.
PAS obtained 3,587 votes in GE14, but did not field a candidate this time around.
“In the last general election, the vote was split as the contest involved BN, PAS, Pakatan Harapan (PH), Parti Sosialis Malaysia and Berjasa,” Awang Azman, a senior lecturer at Universiti Malaya, said today.
Today, BN candidate Ramli Mohd Nor obtained 12,038 votes, defeating PH’s M.Manogaran (8,800) and independent candidates Sallehudin Ab Talib (314) and Wong Seng Yee (276).
Ramli’s 3,238-vote majority was an increase from the 597 votes BN candidate C. Sivarraajh had obtained previously.
Awang Azman said the results were not surprising, as usually, the incumbent party would be able to defend the seat, especially in the Cameron Highlands parliamentary constituency, traditionally a BN stronghold.
“Similarly, in the four previous by-elections which PH won. PH must work harder in BN strongholds,” he said, referring to the Sg Kandis, Balakong, Seri Setia and Port Dickson by-elections.
Meanwhile, Universiti Utara Malaysia senior lecturer in political and international affairs Md Shukri Shuib said PH must look at the results rationally, and improve.
“The government must improve many things, including Felda. Do not look at them (Felda settlers) as your adversaries,” he said.
Umno acting president Mohamad Hasan had earlier said the win in the by-election was the outcome of the Umno-PAS collaboration.
Mohamad said PAS’ assistance in the by-elections had drawn PAS voters to put their trust in BN.
Mohamad had said BN’s first victory after its defeat in the four previous by-elections would boost the party’s spirits to face the coming Semenyih state by-election.
Camerons outcome a wake-up call,
but ground-shaking it is not...
Umno and Barisan Nasional (BN) won handsomely in Cameron Highlands. By any stretch of the imagination, it is not a ground shaking result. Many had predicted it and saw it coming, given the fact that Umno/BN had cleverly chosen a local Orang Asli candidate to assure it of strong support from Orang Asli and Malay voters.
The Pakatan Harapan (PH) candidate, an ethnic Indian, had an insurmountable task to ride above the politics of race and religion waged by Umno/BN. On top of that, the PAS block votes were also expected to go to Umno/BN. But if we are to compare today’s results with that of the last general election, the outcome was quite predictable.
In that election, the percentage of votes obtained by MIC/BN was 10,307 (40.7%), PAS 3,587 (14.2%) and PH 9,710 (38.3%). The turnout was 25,326 (79%). MIC/BN won by 597 votes. Combined, MIC/BN and PAS got 13,894 (54.9%).
Here, with PAS choosing not to contest, Umno/BN’s share of the votes was 12,038 (56%), an improvement of 1.1% over the votes obtained by MIC/BN and PAS last year. The majority for Umno/BN was 3,238, which more or less reflected the majority it obtained in the last general election plus some 3000 votes contributed by PAS.
PH, on the other hand, secured 8,800 votes (41%), an increase of about 3% from what it obtained in May 2018. It would seem that most of the votes for PSM and Berjasa in GE14 had gone to PH. This time, the turnout was 69%.
Now with such equations and permutations in the results, do you think it carries great ramifications and entails ground-shaking movements in the voting patterns? I do not think so.
Rather it is just a logical sequence and consequence of local politics, as well as voting patterns carried over from GE14. I do not think it would be accurate to think that the results reflect the national mood or sentiments of the people on the ground.
For supporters of PH who are looking at the larger picture, the results could be a blessing in disguise, to serve as a “wake-up” call to PH to reflect on what they have done wrong, and to understand where they failed or disappointed the people. More important is the next general election. PH has time to correct things.
As for the upcoming Semenyih by-election, the combined votes obtained by Umno and PAS in GE14 was thousands short of the votes obtained by PH.
In GE14, PH obtained 23,428 votes (51%), Umno/BN 14,464 (31%) and PAS 6,966 (15%). The PH vote bank was about 2,000 more than the votes of Umno/BN and PAS combined.
If PH were to lose there in the coming by-election, then we can say that the country is going through significant changes in voting trends. - Wan Haron Wan Hassan
N24 Semenyih
Pecahan pengundi mengikut kaum:
Melayu - 67.7%
Cina - 16.7%
India - 1.9%
Buaya pun ketawa...
Bila dapat Menteri cam ni awat tak kalah...
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