continue from part 1........
Looking back at the scenario in Hang Chiang,Sungai Acheh and others places, the so called Anwar's phenomenal surge reminds me of the events of the 1969 general elections when Dr.Lim Chong Eu leading his Gerakan Party defeated the Alliance party and came to power in Penang. Dr.Lim Chong Eu’s victory was a concerted effort by the Gerakan taking advantage of an anti-government mood in Penang then. Gerakan not only wiped out MCA and MIC but partly destroyed UMNO to form the government without relying on DAP who won 3 seats or the Sosialis Rakyat which won 1 seat. Later to everyone disbelief Gerakan became part of BN.
To win Penang, the opposition must not only beat MCA, Gerakan & MIC but UMNO as well. That’s how Dr.Lim Chong Eu achieved in 1969. Dr.Lim Chong knew that Malay votes are the most crucial element for victory. The 1990 election scenario is quite similar to 1969, where the DAP almost wipeout MCA and Gerakan, but because Semangat46 lost practically in all seat they contested against UMNO, BN still retain power. Now the anti-BN mood is currently evident in Chinese majority areas, but not so in Malay majority areas. UMNO seems to hold on their ground and this is where PKR and PAS should focus more.
There are currently 15 Malay majority areas, that PKR and PAS got to concentrate on, namely Penaga(89.5%), Bertam(64.1%),
Pinang Tunggal(70.2%), Permatang Berangan(81.0%), Sungai Puyu(84.9%), Telok Air Tawar(65.4%), Seberang Jaya(62.4%), Permatang Pasir(72.3%), Penanti(72.5), Sungai Bakap(57.8%), Sungai Acheh(68.7%), Batu Maung(50.5), Bayan Lepas(60.5%),
Pulau Betong(59.1%) and Telok Bahang(60.4%).
Anwar and his team must realize that if PKR and PAS fails to secure any of the 15 Malay majority seats against UMNO, though DAP performs well by wining as many seats from the Gerakan,MCA and MIC, the opposition front still will be unable to form the government of Penang. In short, winning Malay majority seats is strategically very important if the opposition dream of coming to power in Penang. There are 15 Malay majority state seats, where UMNO is contesting against PKR and PAS.
Malays voters also constitute between 10-40% of the electorates in the Bagan Dalam(24%),Bagan Jermal(16%),Seri Delima(24%),Air Itam(20%),Macang Bubuk(40%),Perai(12%),Bukit Tengah(38%),Bukit Tambun(20%),Datuk Keramat(35%), Sungai Pinang(35%),Jawi(20%),Tanjung Bunga(27%),Pulau Tikus(13%),
Batu Uban(31%) and Pantai Jerjak(42%) state seats and they are the king makers. PKR got to slog hard to wind the hearts and minds of the Malay voters in these constituencies if they want to help the opposition candidates win.
Also,the tendency for Penang voters to spilt vote, putting opposition for Parliament and BN for the state assembly can also deny the opposition front chances of winning the state. In 2004 election though the DAP won the Tanjung parliamentary seat with a big majority but the DAP lost in all the three state seats they contested in that constituency. This goes to show that the voters split their preferences by voting DAP for parliament and retaining BN candidates for the state assembly.
Another problem that is hindering the opposition front’s chances is best summed up by Raja Petra who said,” So, in the absence of block-voting, one set of voters can be played against the other. When the Chinese swing to the opposition, the sentiments of the Malays can be played up and the Chinese 'threat' can be bandied about to 'unite' the Malays under Umno. This has always worked in the past and there is no reason it can't continue to work. The same goes when the Malays swing to the opposition like in 1999. Then the Chinese can be subtly 'persuaded' to vote government by constantly raising the specter of 'May 13'. Then, to complete this very delicate 'balancing act', the Indians will deliver the crucial 'deciding votes'. Traditionally, 90% of the Indian voters vote for ruling party.”
The mass media is currently harping on this sentiment as to frighten the Chinese and the Malay voters. As for the Indians, they always vote along with the gomen. However, due to the recent events,notably,the Bersih and Hindraf public rallies, the mood has changed. Now the Indian voters are percieved as anti-establishment. Anwar's strategy to fight along multi racial line has generated interest among the Chinese,Malays and Indian electorates much to the chagrin of the gomen who are still gambling along the long-standing politics of race, ethnicity and pluralism. If Anwar succeed in his new approach to moderation -- minus communal politics, probably our political landscape will change in years to come.
When the gomen of Wong Pow Nee (Alliance) was trounced byDr. Lim Chong Eu in 1969, the Alliance gomen found it hard to swallow. As a result of the poor performance by the Alliance gomen then, trouble broke out leading to the events of Mei 13 1969. A couple of years later, the Prime Minister, the late Tunku Abdul Rahman resigned under pressure from UMNO. Pat Lah is trying hard to maintain power in Penang, his home state, but if Penang falls, that will be the beginning of the end of Pat Lah. Can Anwar and the opposition front stop Pat Lah in his own backyard? That’s what we gonna do come 8 March 2008.
The road to victory is rather rough, because we are not the only voters walking up to the voting booth to vote on March 8 2008, but also many “hantu” will be returning from their graves to cast their votes too. Though cogent evidence of such happenings were brought up to the Election Commission,yet Rashid & his goons still got the balls to say,"mana ada hantu?"
PKR need to work extra hard to win the hearts and minds of the Malays and Anwar has to prove that he is still relevant to the Malays though Pak Lah thinks otherwise. This will be the opposition’s last chance to prove that they are still a viable force in Malaysian politics, because come 2013, the gomen in power will carve out new electoral boundaries, and will be gerrymandering their way to ensure they will be in power for another 50 years to come.
bila mengundi ingatlah....
....jangan ingat Pat Lah