Selangor akan tumbang, kata profesor kangkong...

Umno dan BN mempunyai kelebihan untuk memenangi pilihan raya umum ke-13 (PRU 13) dan merampas kembali beberapa negeri yang ditadbir pembangkang, demikian menurut kajian yang dilakukan beberapa ahli akademik.

Prof Madya Dr Fuad Mohd Jali dari Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) berkata kajian itu, yang dilakukan terhadap 1,400 responden di Kedah dan Selangor pada Mac hingga Mei tahun ini, menyimpulkan bahawa rakyat Malaysia setakat ini memilih BN.

"Di Selangor, pengundi cenderung untuk memilih BN manakala di Kedah kedudukannya 50-50 tetapi ia mungkin berubah," katanya pada Perbincangan Meja Bulat 'PRU 13: Malaysia Pilih Siapa' anjuran Kluster Politik, Keselamatan dan Hal Ehwal Antarabangsa, Majlis Profesor Negara (MPN) di Kuala Lumpur hari ini.

Pengerusi Pusat Pengajian Sosial, Pembangunan dan Persekitaran UKM itu berkata PRU 13 merupakan satu kemuncak kepada penilaian prestasi bagi BN dan pakatan pembangkang di empat negeri sama ada mereka boleh kekal memerintah ataupun BN berjaya merampas kembali keempat-empat negeri berkenaan.

Secara keseluruhannya, beliau berkata 69.6 peratus responden menyatakan bahawa BN akan memenangi PRU 13 iaitu 37.5 peratus menyatakan bahawa BN akan menang dengan 2/3 majoriti manakala 32.1 peratus pula menang dengan majoriti mudah.

"Di peringkat Dewan Undangan Negeri (DUN), 54.1 peratus responden akan memilih BN, 14.4 peratus (PAS), tiga peratus (PKR) dan selebihnya tidak pasti, manakala di peringkat Parlimen, 57 peratus memilih BN, 20.6 peratus (Pakatan Rakyat) dan 22.4 peratus tidak pasti," katanya.

Di Selangor, Dr Fuad berkata kajian simulasi berdasarkan kepada keputusan PRU 11 dan PRU 12, profil pemilih berdaftar terkini dan reputasi BN mendapati bahawa BN akan menang di 40 kerusi DUN.

Di Kedah, seramai 50.7 peratus responden memilih PAS untuk menang di peringkat DUN, 49.3 peratus (BN) dan selebihnya tidak pasti, katanya.

Beliau berkata kepimpinan dan populariti Perdana Menteri Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak yang diterima dan terus mendapat sokongan juga menjadi antara faktor kelebihan BN untuk memenangi PRU 13.

"Purata 87.4 peratus mereka yang berumur 21 hingga 60 tahun menyokong kepimpinan Najib. Tujuh puluh enam peratus menyatakan imej Najib amat baik berbanding Ketua Pembangkang Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim dan Mursyidul Am PAS Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat," katanya.

Beliau berkata sokongan golongan muda pada tahun 2008 agak merosot, justeru, Najib membuat pendekatan 'modul magnet' bagi menarik semula sokongan dengan melakukan pembaharuan yang bersifat populis dan praktikal menerusi media sosial dan transformasi politik.- malaysiakini

Pengkhianat bakal menumbangkan Selangor...

Perbuatan sesetengah pihak yang bertungkus-lumus memberikan MyKad kepada pekerja asing, sekali gus memasukkan nama mereka ke dalam senarai daftar pemilih untuk membolehkan mereka mengundi dalam pilihan raya umum ke-13 (PRU13) yang akan datang ini adalah pengkhianat yang harus diberikan hukuman setimpal,” kata ahli Parlimen Kuala Selangor daripada PAS, Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad.

“Pengkhianat seperti ini langsung tidak bermaruah sebab telah bertindak gila kerana tamakkan kuasa sehingga sanggup mengkhianati amanah dan mandat yang diberikan oleh rakyat,” kata pula Nizar Jamaluddin, bekas Menteri Besar Perak yang juga Ahli Dewan Undangan Negeri (Adun) bagi kerusi Pasir Panjang.

Sumber dalaman dalam Pakatan Rakyat berkata senarai daftar pemilih untuk negeri Selangor yang mengandungi lebih setengah juta pengundi hantu dan pengundi warga asing yang telah mendapat kerakyatan pantas dapat membolehkan BN merampas kembali Negeri Selangor.

Adalah amat sukar untuk Pakatan Rakyat menandingi angka setengah juta ini. “Boleh dikatakan mustahil,” kata seorang pakar strategi Pakatan yang memberi ulasan mengenai situasi di Selangor.

Justeru itu, tidak hairanlah jika BN berani menguar-uarkan bahawa mereka akan berjaya merampas kembali Negeri Selangor. Keyakinan mereka adalah berdasarkan kepada senarai daftar pemilih.

Juga tidak menghairankan bahawa tuntutan rakyat supaya diadakan pilihan raya yang bersih, telus dan adil telah diketepikan dan pihak kerajaan sehingga hari ini diam membisu sahaja perihal isu senarai daftar pemilih. Bantahan demi bantahan telah dibuat mengenai nama pengundi yang meragukan, nama pengundi yang telah dipindahkan tanpa pengetahuan mereka dan bermacam-macam aduan lagi tetapi Suruhanjaya Pilihan Raya (SPR) nampaknya tidak pro-aktif menyelesaikan masalah-masalah ini.

“Sehingga hari ini, pihak yang mengamalkan politik durjana ini tidak mempedulikan tuntutan rakyat yang dibuat melalui Bersih 1.0, Bersih 2.0 dan Bersih 3.0. Ini menunjukkan bahawa mereka amat takut kepada pilihan raya yang bersih, telus dan adil.

Namun demikian, mereka harus ingat bahawa kemenangan yang diperolehi melalui cara yang kotor dan jijik ini tentunya akan mengundang azab daripada Tuhan dan akhirnya rakyat kelak yang akan kerugian - Salena Tay,FMT.

BN may regain S'gor, Kedah, say dons....

Barisan Nasional has the edge to win the 13th general election and wresting at least two states from the opposition, according to a study carried out by several lecturers.

Associate professor Fuad Mohd Jali from Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia said the BN was leading if a study conducted on 1,400 respondents in Kedah and Selangor from March to May was anything to go by.

"In Selangor, the respondents banked their hope on the BN while in Kedah the situation is 50-50, but it may change," he said at a roundtable organised by the National Council of Professors in Kuala Lumpur today.

Fuad, who is UKM School of Social, Development and Environment chairman, said the 13th GE would be the acid test of whether the BN had restored its support or whether the opposition would maintain its stranglehold in four states.

On the whole, he said 69.6 percent of the respondents indicated that the BN would win the 13th GE in which 37.5 per cent felt it would a landslide victory while 32.1 percent by a simple majority.

For the Selangor state election, he said 54.1 per cent of the respondents went for the BN, 14.4 percent (PAS), three per cent (PKR) and the rest (not sure), while at the parliamentary level, 57 per cent wanted the BN, 20.6 per cent (opposition) and 22.4 per cent (not sure).

Fuad said based the results deduced from simulation studies carried out in Selangor based on the 11th and 12th GEs, the present voter profile and the BN reputation indicated that the BN would win 40 state seats.

In Kedah, 50.7 per cent of the respondents opted for PAS for the state seats, 49.3 per cent (BN) while the rest (not sure), he said.

'Magnet module' approach

He said the leadership and popularity of Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak would be a major contributing factor that would give the BN the edge to win the 13th GE.

"An average of 87.4 per cent of respondents aged between 21 and 60 supported Najib.

Seventy-six percent said Najib portrays very good image compared to opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim and PAS spiritual leader Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat," said Fuad.

He said while the BN lost the support of young people in 2008, Najib had turned the tide against the opposition by garnering their support through the 'magnet module' approach by implementing political transformation and engaging them through social networking. - malaysiakini
 

Kajian UUM: Ramai mahu Mukhriz jadi MB Kedah, Kajian UiTM: BN mungkin hilang banyak kerusi di Sabah...

 Satu kajian oleh Universiti Utara Malaysia menyatakan bahawa anak kepada bekas perdana menteri, Datuk Mukhriz Tun Mahathir merupakan pilihan ramai sebagai bakal calon menteri besar Kedah.

Kajian yang dibentangkan oleh Prof Madya Dr Rohana Yusof itu dari UUM juga menyatakan bahawa BN lebih berpeluang untuk merampas Kedah dari tangan PAS dalam pilihan raya umum akan datang.

"Rakyat Kedah inginkan seorang menteri besar yang mampu menyelesaikan masalah mereka dan pada masa yang sama rajin menemui rakyat.

"Nada ini secara tidak langsung memberi gambaran ketidakupayaan menteri besar dari kerajaan PAS melaksanakan tanggungjawab yang diharap oleh pengundi," kata Rohana dalam slaid pembentangan kajiannya.

Kajian itu dijalankan ke atas 10,800 orang rakyat Kedah di 36 DUN, yang sebahagian besarnya berusia antara 21 hingga 34 tahun.

Ia membandingkan peluang Mukhriz dan tiga lagi pemimpin Umno Kedah – ketua perhubungannya Datuk Ahmad Bashah Md Hanipah, ketua penerangan Datuk Seri Mohd Jamil Khir Baharom dan ketua pembangkang DUN Kedah, Datuk Seri Mahdzir Khalid.

Seramai 67 peratus responden Melayu, 78 peratus responden Cina dan 71 peratus responden India memilih Mukhriz, manakala Ahmad Bashah mendapat peratusan kedua terbanyak, masing-masing 13, 11 dan 14 peratus dari setiap kumpulan kaum.

Kajian itu juga menunjukkan bahawa 52 peratus daripada responden menyatakan ketidakpuasan hati mereka terhadap pentadbiran PAS negeri, manakala 59 peratus daripadanya berpendapat bahawa janji pilihan raya PAS masih belum dipenuhi.

Seramai 54 peratus lagi tidak mahu kerajaan pimpinan PAS dipilih semula, manakala 47 peratus menyatakan bahawa masa depan orang Melayu lebih baik di bawah pentadbiran BN.

Kedah, yang merupakan kubu kuat Umno sebelum ini jatuh ke tangan Pakatan Rakyat dalam pilihan raya umum 2008.

Rohana membentangkan kajiannya itu di program perbincangan anjuran Majlis Profesor Negara di Kuala Lumpur hari ini.

Turut membentangkan kajian di sesi pagi pada program tersebut ialah rektor Universiti Islam Antarabangsa Prof Datuk Seri Dr Syed Arabi Idid.- malaysiakini

 

BN mungkin hilang separuh daripada kerusi Sabah

BN mungkin tewas lebih daripada 60 peratus kerusi parlimennya di Sabah dalam pilihan raya umum akan datang, kata seorang penganalisis politik dari negeri itu.

Pensyarah UiTM Sabah, Arnold Puyok berkata BN mungkin tewas di 14 daripada 22 kerusi yang diwakilinya di negeri tersebut.

Pembangkang mungkin berpeluang mudah di kerusi seperti Kota Kinabalu, Sandakan dan Pensiangan, katanya.

"Saya tidak fikir deposit tetap itu akan kekal" katanya lagi yang merujuk kepada gelaran popular untuk Sabah dan Sarawak yang secara tradisinya menjadi kubu kuat BN.

Beliau bercakap dalam majlis perbincangan meja bulat di Kuala Lumpur yang dianjurkan oleh kluster politik, keselamatan dan hubungan antarabangsa Majlis Profesor Negara.- malaysiakini

BN could lose more than half of Sabah seats...

The BN stands to lose more than 60 percent of its parliamentary seats in Sabah in the next general election, said a Sabah-based political scientist.

UiTM Sabah lecturer Arnold Puyok said that, based on his research, BN could lose up to 14 of the 22 seats now held by BN in the state.

Seats like Kota Kinabalu, Sandakan and Pensiangan are being considered “easy wins” for the opposition.

“I don't think the ‘fixed deposit’ will remain,” he said, referring to the popular term for Sabah and Sarawak, which have been traditional BN strongholds.

He was speaking at a roundtable discussion on the next general election, organised by the politics, security and international relations cluster of the National Professors' Council.

Puyok said the BN will have difficulty in retaining not only Chinese seats in Sabah, but also areas where the Kadazan-Dusun make up the majority of voters.

“BN could lose up to 10 marginal areas (where the) Kadazan-Dusun (make up the) majority (of) voters,” he said, noting that the toughest battles will be seen in areas which are more urban and densely populated.

He predicted a “tripartite” battle in Sabah between the BN, the United Borneo Front led by veteran Sabah politician Jeffrey Kitingan and an alliance between Pakatan Rakyat and a local movement.

The local movement he said, is likely to be Angkatan Perubahan Sabah, led by local politicians like Beaufort and Tuaran MPs Lajim Ukin and Wilfred Bumburing, who are rumoured to be leaving the BN.

However, he posited that Lajim and Bumburing, both political strongmen in the 1970s and 1980s, have little traction outside their areas today.

“People still look at (Joseph) Pairin (Kitingan, left) as a source to unite the Kadazan-Dusun, and I don't see (Bumburing shifting) support from BN to the opposition,” he said.

Universiti Malaysia Sarawak political scientist Jeneri Amir said that, while Sarawak BN anchor party PBB is likely to win all 14 of its seats, the same cannot be said for its partners.

“PRS has six seats, but the Sarawak Workers Party is planning to contest four of these and is likely to win two... ,” he said.

“SUPP is in bigger trouble, and is likely to lose five of its seven of its seats as the perception among the Chinese is that a vote for SUPP is a vote for (Sarawak Chief Minister) Abdul Taib Mahmud.”

SPDP, he said, is also in trouble due to recent defections.

The 2011 Sarawak election has shown popular vote for BN dropping by close to 10 percent compared to the 2006 state polls, he added.

'Sabah, Sarawak kept Umno afloat'

UKM lecturer Jayum Jawan said the question is no longer whether the Borneo states  are fixed deposits, but rather a “floatation device (pelampung) to keep Umno and Malays from sinking”.

“In 1963, when Singapore left Malaysia, in 1969 when the ruling coalition lost its two-third majority and were fearful even though in other countries people could rule with much less than that...and again in 2008,” he said, listing the instances when the two states had provided support.

“In 2013, when the parliamentary term is over, I don't know if Sabah and Sarawak will be a floatation device for any battle ship.”
  
Jawan (left) added that, in Sabah and Sarawak, the church is the “third force” with its strong network throughout the states.

“Christians are voters too and have their interests...The church was previously only concerned in the hereafter but now they are concerned in the 'herenow'.

“Whether this will affect the next general election we will see, but it will definitely be a strong factor in Sarawak politics henceforth.”

He said the people of Sarawak are feeling that they are not in the mainstream of development and when someone comes along promising change, it is very appealing.

“This cannot be taken lightly. The opposition can offer the moon and the stars, that is their job, and the job of the government (of the day) is to deliver on its promises,” he added.- malaysiakini

Mukhriz MB Kedah kalau BN menang...

BN’s Jerlun parliamentarian Mukhriz Mahathir would be the people’s choice for Kedah menteri besar, should the coalition win back the state in the next general election.

A recent survey by Universiti Utara Malaysia across the 36 state seats has established that there is overwhelming support for Mukhriz (right), the son of former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

The poll saw 67 percent of Malays, 78 percent of Chinese and 71 percent of Indians backing Mukhriz.

The deputy international trade and industry minister emerged ahead of senior Kedah leaders including federal minister Mohd Jamil Khir Baharom, state Umno liaison chief Ahmad Bashah and state opposition leader Mahdzir Khalid.

Three hundred respondents were picked at random from each polling district for the survey.

Of the 10,800 respondents, 76 percent are Malays, 16 percent are Chinese, 7 percent are Indians and one percent of Thai origin.

The majority, or 47 percent, live in villages. Another 32 percent live in urban settlements, 20 percent in cities  and 1 percent in estates.

Better chance seen for BN

It was found that BN, in particular Umno, stands a better chance of winning the election now.

This is because 52 percent of the respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the state government’s performance, while 59 percent said many of its election promises remained unfulfilled.

While 54 percent do not want to see the PAS-led government re-elected, 47 percent indicated their belief that Malays had fared better under BN rule.

Kedah, once an Umno stronghold, fell to Pakatan in the ‘political tsunami’ of 2008. 

However, issues have arisen under the leadership of Menteri Besar Azizan Abdul Razak (left), who have been at odds with the Pakatan and PAS central leadership.

The poll saw the Kedah people rejecting Kedah PAS and this could be interpreted as the Islamist party’s failure to fulfill the promises made to the people in the last general election.

Despite many issues facing Azizan, the poll showed that should PAS retain control of Kedah , Azizan would likely be retained as MB.

Azizan is polled at 40 percent of the respondents, while present exco member Phahrolrazi Zawawi is second at 12 percent, Amiruddin Hamzah third at seven percent and Mohamed Taulan Mohd Rasul is fourth with three percent.

What they want in an MB

The poll showed Kedahans favoured an MB who can resolve the problems faced by them and was willing to meet the people.

“This feeling indirectly gives the impression of the incapability of the present MB and the PAS government to fulfill its obligations as hoped for by the electorate,” the poll commented.

“They felt the need of a dynamic leadership who is also innovative in handling economic issues which are critical to the Chinese community.”

The poll also showed that 66 percent of the respondents complained that rising prices was the main problem in Kedah.

Others included road maintenance (58 percent), garbage collection (37 percent), rising crime rate (31 percent), job opportunities (30 percent), water supply (28 percent) and opportunities to open business (27 percent).

Nationally, the Kedah people polled in the survey showed they accepted Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak’s leadership as it had brought stability in the country.

“Economically, they are satisfied with Malaysia’s performance rather than the state’s performance. Politically, the people of Kedah are satisfied with the Malaysian political scene rather than the present Kedah scene,” the study showed.- malaysiakini

 

cheers.