While Dato Sak attacks Pekan, Daim is asking Najib to leave...

Dato' Mohd.Ariff Sabri bin Hj. Abdul Aziz aka Samonkol AK47(pic above), ex-ADUN of Pulau Manis, Pekan.( 2004-2008)went back into the lion’s den last Wednesday, 14th of March. He took part in his first ceramah as a DAP member in Pekan Pahang in a kampong called Kampung Sungai Miang.

The ceramah was organized by the local PAS chapter at a house belonging to a PAS supporter. The house has a big compound and was able to accommodate a large crowd. The two other speakers at the ceramah were my fellow DAP colleague, Encik Aspan Alias. The other was PAS firebrand, deputy president- Tuan Haji Mat Sabu.

Blogger Sir Wenger Khairy aka The Pirates of Putrajaya wrote...

I just finished watching Dato Sak's inaugural ceramah as a DAP party member. Certainly he did not disappoint and he really assailed "Najib-Ah-Gor" in his address. This was a real bold move and demonstrated a statement of intent. 

Dato Sak and Aspan Alias are attacking Najib in his own backyard. Sensing that this could be a threat, the Prime Minister instructed some members of the local Mat Rempit to create a ruckus. 

An UMNO ceramah was organized nearby too so that there is an audible interference when you listen to the ceramah on YouTube.

This was a bad move as the pictures below reveal the turnout between Dato Sak's ceramah vs. UMNO's ceramah.

Sak's ceramah

 UMNO's ceramah

Above: UMNO purposely organized a ceramah about 100m away from Sakmongkol's ceramah. The UMNO speaker could be heard from the YouTube screaming DAP Komunis, and insulting PAS and so on.

But the UMNO speaker did sound like he was in some sort of medical complication. I estimate about 70 people were forced to attend. The loudspeakers were directed towards Dato Sak's ceramah in an attempt to sabotage the PAS organised event.

 

 

Above: Sakmongkol's ceramah was held in the local PAS supporter's house. I estimate around 400-500 people turned up.

Sak's ceramah was interesting because it achieves a lot at a strategic level. Sak is now able to put a Malay face on DAP and really weaken UMNO's central campaign message that DAP is a Chinese Chauvinist party and only UMNO can stand up against DAP. 

And secondly, Sak comes across as a leader. So this is not just a case of DAP getting a Malay face, the DAP has a Malay leader.

And Sak makes a great message that is quite unlike other politicians. His basic premise is this - we have different opinions. He has his opinion and brings the facts to back up his opinion. But UMNO is unable to counter these facts and resorts to name calling and intimidation. 

He says this shows that UMNO is really a morally bankrupt party whose claims of an "Alif Ba Ta" struggle are as hollow as Sharizat's claim that really she had nothing to do with the NFC.

Sak also laid bare two of Najib's fundamental short comings as a leader. The first is that he basically is short on details and makes decisions without having a clue about the repercussions or implications. To this he mentioned an encounter Tun Daim had with Najib. Najib it seems was elated with the latest popularity findings and was sure he was going to win. After all 69% of the voters approved of him, so says Merdeka Centre.

Daim then shot back and asked him point blank. "Where are the votes going to come from." Najib was stumped. Merdeka Center polls did not tell him where those votes are going to come.

Let me also take this opportunity to tear this poll to pieces.

I refer you to the main exhibit below - the so called proof that Najib has a 69% Approval rating.

Voters were called and asked a question that would mean "How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the performance of Najib Tun Razak as Prime Minister?" The categories were
a) Very Satisfied
b) Somewhat Satisfied
c) Somewhat Disatisfied
d) Very disatisfied
e) Unsure
f) Refuse

22% responded that they were very satisfied. 47% responded that they were somewhat satisfied. Merdeka Centre added these two numbers together to come out with the 69% approval rating.

That is just ridiculous. Firstly you cannot read much into "somewhat satisfied" . This question has all the hallmarks of response bias and interviewer error. Just think how can this question be phrased and interpreted in a consistent manner in Malay or Chinese or Tamil? The default position would be between b) and c) as this would reflect a 'so-so' evaluation of a Prime Minister.

The second issue is the interviewer error. In the survey Malays gave Najib a whopping 74% "approval" rating. Remember this "approval" rating was just folk who mentioned in an interview that they were not pissed at Najib. 

The second issue to note is that this interview was a phone interview. Now imagine if you were a Malay Government servant, and some folk calls you and asks you do you approve of Najib, what are you going to answer?

See - that is the second major mistake in this survey.

The third issue is UMNO is drawing inferences without any proper data. The survey was designed to ask people what they thought of Najib. I've already listed two serious issues with the survey. 

The survey was not crafted in a way to ask people who they would vote. Najib is an individual. UMNO is a party. Najib is not UMNO. UMNO is not Najib.

Big difference.

To me this survey has very little internal validity and really can't be relied upon by UMNO to estimate its support.

In his ceramah, Dato Sak mentioned that Daim told him he expects a minimum of 26 seats in East Malaysia to fall in the next general election. This should be read together with what Daim recently said, when he mentioned that Najib should leave if he fails to win more seats. 

The Economist and other influential organizations have more or less said that this time, the outcome will be a hung Parliament, i.e. BN with much less seats than before. 

If you add a), b) and c) together, basically using Merdeka's Centre and UMNO's powers of extrapolation, we can reliably conclude that Daim is asking Najib to leave.-  Sir Wenger Khairy 

source: the Pirates of Putrajaya blogspot.com

cheers.