When deputy MIC president G Palanivel was chosen to defend the Hulu Selangor parliamentary seat in the March 2008 general election, it was considered a ‘safe seat’ for the Barisan Nasional. This was because the Malay and Indian voters in the constituency had traditionally given their backing to the ruling coalition.Furthermore, Palanivel was a deputy minister and was considered a prospective successor to veteran MIC head S Samy Vellu, in the event the elderly politician decideds to step down from his party's top post. The Barisan had no inkling that a tsunami was coming and when it came, the seat was swept away with 81 others, eroding the two-thirds majority in Parliament that the Barisan (and its predecessor the Alliance) had enjoyed for over 50 years.
Samy Vellu, who had held his Sungai Siput since 1974, was also shockingly unseated by poltical novice Dr Michael Jeyakumar Devaraj of mosquito party, Parti Sosialis Malaysia (though he contested under the PKR banner). As it similarly turned out in Hulu Selangor, a large chunk of the Malay voters had switched to the opposing camp, giving PKR flag bearer Dr Zainal Abidin Ahmad his first parliamentary victory.
No such thing as 'safe seat' anymore
It did not matter that Palanivel only lost by 198 votes to Zainal Abidin, a former Umno stalwart, three-term state assemblyman and ex-deputy mentri besar, who defected to the PKR in 2005. The bottom line is, the Barisan can no longer consider Hulu Selangor – or any other –a safe seat.
A by-election is now due in the kawasan, following Zainal Abidin’s death from brain cancer last Thursday. The Election Commission meets on April 2 to decide on the nomination and polling dates for the by-election, the 10th since the 2008 general polls.
In the by-elections that had been held in the past two years, the Barisan had won only two - in Batang Ai in Sarawak and Bagan Pinang, Negri Sembilan – and had boycotted one – in Penanti, Penang. It lost the others to the PKR (one parliament and one state seat) and PAS (two parliament and two state seats).
The Penanti by-election, with the absence of the Barisan, recorded the lowest voter turnout in Malaysia’s electoral history. Only 46% came out to cast their ballot papers, among the more than 15,300 people eligible to vote.The Barisan felt it would not have served any purpose to join the race in Penanti because it was not prompted by a death or any irregularities in the previous general election.
While the Barisan frowns on the practice of having foced by-elections, the coalition forgot that it had set the precedent in November 1999 when it created fresh polls for Cabinet minister Abu Hassan Omar to step down from his parliamentary seat and contest a state seat so that he could be appointed Selangor mentri besar.
Abu Hassan resigned as MB about two years later after being implicated in a sex scandal that dragged his sister-in-law into the issue. He told the media he quit because of ailing health. The Bagan Pinang polls last September gave the Barisan its sweetest by-election victory in recent times and former Negri Sembilan mentri besar Isa Abdul Samad – a villain when he was suspended as an Umno vice-resident because of money politics – was hailed as a hero when he romped home to a big win the race.
So, it is not surprising that the Barisan has since been in an upbeat mood. While taking the seat with a comfortable majority of more than 5,400 votes had buoyed the Barisan’s confidence, the subsequent in-fighting in the PKR and the suspicions cast on the DAP over its ‘Middle Malaysia’ stance, have further boosted the morale of the multi-party coalition. It probably can’t wait to test its might again in Hulu Selangor.Furthermore, the three state seats in the constituency - Hulu Bernam, Batang Kali and Kuala Kubu Baru – all belonged to the barisan, an indication there is strong support for it in the kawasan.
This is probably a factor in the mind of Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak when he told reporters on Friday that the Barisan’s chances of winning back the parliamentary seat are very bright.
The speculation at the moment is that the PKR would offer the candidature to prominent lawyer Zaid Ibrahim, a former Cabinet minister in charge of judicial matters and one of the prime movers of a soon-to-be completed Pakatan Rakyat charter. He is, at the moment, the only key leader in the PKR that is either not an elected representative or a Senator. He has only the reputation of being a rebel Cabinet member when he was a Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department during his Umno days.
Umno members have also got wind of this speculation and have recommended a ‘reserve’ nominee from the party, in case Najib decides to put up a Malay candidate. It is learnt that top of their list is former Selangor mentri besar Muhammmad Muhammad Taib,
“We had a former mentri besar in the Bagan Pinang race. Didn’t Isa gave the seat to the Barisan at the time when it needed it most?” asked an Umno supporter in an SMS.
“Mat Tyson (a popular nickname for Muhammad) still carries a lot of respect and influence. Why not him?”
The constituency has 63,000 voters, comprising Malays (51%), Chinese (26%), Indians (19%) and about 1,000 Orang Asli and others.— Shah A Dadameah,Malaysian Mirror
source:Malaysian Mirror
A typical UMNO style recycling corrupted leaders as their candidate.......
cheers.
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