Biar jelas, kemenangan atau kekalahan dalam pilihan raya ditentukan kerusi marginal. Untuk gandingan pembangkang baru membentuk sebuah kerajaan yang stabil dengan keabsahan (legitimasi) yang kukuh, menumpaskan UMNO di Semenanjung Malaysia harus menjadi keutamaan.
Namun untuk UMNO tumpas bagai domino, kita tidak seharusnya tumpu di kubu kuat kita, sebaliknya kita perlu mencurahkan usaha di kawasan yang paling lemah, iaitu di kerusi marginal.
UMNO memenangi 88 kerusi di peringkat nasional, termasuk 14 kerusi dari Sabah dan satu dari Labuan. 73 kerusi selebihnya datang dari Semenanjung Malaysia.
Daripada 73 kerusi di Semenanjung, UMNO akan menang sekurang-kurangnya 30 kerusi di kawasan kampung, yang mana direka khas untuk UMNO sebermulanya, dengan campuran undi FELDA, undi pos, dan kerahan jentera kerajaan ketika UMNO berkempen. Pembangkang seharusnya lupakan sahaja 30 kerusi ini.
Untuk kerusi selebihnya, yang mana kebanyakannya terdiri daripada berbilang kaum, berpotensi untuk tumpas lantaran kemarahan terhadap UMNO semenjak tahun 2008 di kalangan bukan-Melayu, dan tsunami Melayu yang bakal mengancam ekoran tekanan dan penderitaan ekonomi yang disebabkan kerajaan UMNO.
Daripada 39 kerusi marginal yang dimenangi Barisan Nasional dengan majoriti kurang daripada 10% dalam PRU yang lalu, 32 kerusi itu dimiliki UMNO. Inilah gelanggang pertaruhan untuk PRU akan datang.
Menumpukan fokus di gelanggang pertengahan, dengan menawarkan pimpinan yang mantap, dasar yang jelas, dan mesej yang meyakinkan untuk menyatupadukan semua golongan etnik – sementara meluncur di gelombang kemarahan Melayu yang sedang bertiup kencang, bakal mengalih sokongan daripada dacing untuk menyebelahi pembangkang.
Garis 6%
Tidak sukar untuk keseimbangan ini dipecahkan seandainya kita meneliti data bahawa 38 kerusi parlimen yang dimenangi Barisan Nasional dalam PRU13, hanya dengan margin kurang daripada 10%. Selain daripada 38 kerusi ini, BN memenangi kerusi Teluk Intan melalui pilihan raya kecil pada tahun 2014 dengan margin 0.6%.
Padahal satu peralihan 6% secara puratanya bakal menghancurkan 27 kerusi marginal dan BN akan mengambil alih tempat pembangkang.
Daripada 39 kerusi marginal, 10 dimenangi dengan margin kurang daripada 2%, iaitu P76 Teluk Intan (0.6%), P89 Bentong (0.7%), P96 Kuala Selangor (0.8%), P159 Pasir Gudang (1.1%), P93 Sungai Besar (1.1%), P142 Labis (1.1%), P29 Machang (1.6%), P26 Ketereh (1.8%), P12 Jerai (1.9%) dan P119 Titiwangsa (1.9%).
Sebelas kerusi lagi dimenangi dengan margin dari 2% hingga 4%, iaitu P78 Cameron Highlands (2.1%), P158 Tebrau (2.3%), P58 Bagan Serai (2.5%), P118 Setiawangsa (2.7%), P140 Segamat (3.1%), P144 Ledang (3.3%), P53 Balik Pulau (3.6%), P18 Kulim Bandar-Baharu (3.6%), P3 Arau (3.6%), P161 Pulai (3.8%) dan P67 Kuala Kangsar (3.9%).
Enam lagi kerusi dimenangi dengan margin dari 4% hingga 6%, iaitu P146 Muar (4.1%), P11 Pendang (4.3%), P94 Hulu Selangor (4.6%), P90 Bera (5.1%), P92 Sabak Bernam (5.3%) dan P14 Merbok (5.7%).
Garis 6% sungguh bermakna. UMNO mempertahankan kubu selamatnya, Rompin dalam pilihan raya kecil pada Mei 2015, dengan penurunan undi 6%, iaitu dari 67% ke 61%. Seandainya keputusan PRK Rompin menjadi kayu ukur yang membayangkan potensi peralihan undi Melayu kepada pembangkang di seluruh negara, maka UMNO akan kehilangan 27 kerusi parlimen.
Dua belas kerusi selebihnya dimenangi dengan margin dari 6% hingga 10%, iaitu P16 Baling (6.3%), P42 Tasek Gelugor (6.4%), P75 Bagan Datok (6.5%), P13 Sik (6.8%), P5 Jerlun (7.3%), P141 Sekijang (8.2%), P77 Tanjong Malim (8.3%), P27 Tanah Merah (8.6%), P41 Kepala Batas (9.1%), P81 Jerantut (9.3%), P61 Padang Rengas (9.4%) dan P2 Kangar (9.5%).
Pertarungan di kerusi campuran
Daripada 39 kerusi, 5 kerusi mempunyai lebih 90% pengundi Melayu, 6 kerusi dengan pengundi Melayu dari 80% hingga 90%, dan 5 kerusi dengan pengundi Melayu dari 70% hingga 80%.
Lapan kerusi mempunyai pengundi Melayu dari 60% hingga 70%; 7 kerusi dengan pengundi Melayu dari 50% hingga 60% dan 8 kerusi selebihnya dengan pengundi Melayu di bawah paras 50%.
Dengan kata lain, 16 daripada 39 kerusi terdiri daripada lebih 70% pengundi Melayu, sementara 23 selebihnya adalah kawasan campuran dengan pengundi Melayunya di bawah 70%.
Pertarungan di Pantai Barat
Seandainya kita meneliti negeri-negeri di mana kerusi marginal ini berasal – selain 3 kerusi KeADILan di Kelantan yang kalah kerana kononnya disabotaj oleh cawangan PAS, dan 7 kerusi dari Kedah, selebihnya kebanyakan bertabur di Pantai Barat Semenanjung, mempunyai ciri-ciri semi-urban, berbilang kaum dan kebanyakannya dengan majoriti Melayu yang kecil dalam komposisi etnik.
* Perlis – 2 kerusi – P2 Kangar (PAS); P3 Arau (PAS)
* Kedah – 7 kerusi – P5 Jerlun (PAS), P11 Pendang (PAS), P 12 Jerai (PAS), P13 Sik (PAS), P14 Merbok (PKR), P16 Baling (PAS), P18 Kulim Bandar Baru (PKR)
* Kelantan – 3 kerusi – P26 Ketereh (PKR), P27 Tanah Merah (PKR), P29 Machang (PKR)
* Pulau Pinang – 3 kerusi – P41 Kepala Batas (PAS), P42 Tasik Gelugor (PAS), P53 Balik Pulau (PKR)
* Perak – 6 kerusi – P58 Bagan Serai (PKR), P61 Padang Rengas (PKR), P67 Kuala Kangsar (PAS), P75 Bagan Datok (PKR), P76 Teluk Intan (DAP) P77 Tanjong Malim (PKR).
* Pahang – 4 kerusi – P78 Cameron Highlands (DAP), P81 Jerantut (PAS), P89 Bentong (DAP), P90 Bera (PKR)
* Selangor – 4 kerusi – P92 Sabak Bernam (PKR), P93 Sungai Besar (PAS), P94 Hulu Selangor (PKR), P96 Kuala Selangor (PAS)
* KL Wilayah Persekutuan – 2 kerusi – P118 Setiawangsa (PKR), P119 Titiwangsa (PAS)
* Johor – 8 kerusi – P140 Segamat (PKR), P141 Sekijang (PKR), P142 Labis (DAP), P144 Ledang (PKR), P146 Muar (PKR), P158 Tebrau (PKR), P159 Pasir Gudang (PKR), P161 Pulai (PAS)
Strategi yang berasingan diperlukan untuk memenangi semula kerusi di Kedah, yang pada asalnya dimenangi pembangkang pada tahun 2008 tetapi tewas pada tahun 2013 lantaran ketidakpuasan terhadap kerajaan negeri pimpinan allahyarham Azizan Razak.
Selebih itu, kebanyakan kerusi ini mempunyai ciri-ciri yang agak sama, iaitu campuran, semi-urban dan Pantai Barat.
Pendek kata, untuk pembangkang, pertarungan di Semenanjung adalah mustahak untuk menang sebagai parti pemerintah baru dan memperolehi keabsahan untuk memerintah. Dan untuk menang di Semenajung kita terpaksa menyerah 30 kerusi yang direka khas untuk UMNO di kawasan kampung kepada UMNO, sebaliknya menumpukan fokus untuk 38 kerusi marginal yang berpotensi menyaksikan peralihan.
Seandainya Tsunami Melayu melanda lantaran suasana ekonomi yang semakin menekan, UMNO bakal menguburkan dirinya di kawasan campuran dan semi-urban. – Liew Chin Tong,Roketkini.com
Support For PM Hits Zero, UMNO Folks Say At Last Diapers Will Be Changed...
This morning an sms from a ranking UMNO person said "heard the bird will be flying off soon".
There is also that most recent Politweet survey or something that shows only 5.83% of 640 respondents support Najib as PM.
Before the Sarawak Report and the Wall Street Journal released those details about the PM's personal bank accounts, the guy was already the most unpopular PM in our history. But there were still some die hard prepaid supporters who put up a lame fight.
Now after the personal bank account details, after that pembantu who deposited cash into the Walrus's accounts expose, even the prepaids are rethinking their position and situation.
The support for Najib is now very, very limited. It is practically zero.
It is limited only to those who get paid money. Or who get projects. (Same lah). This is a very small and shrinking circle.
The politicians are thinking three times. When the pirate ship starts to go down (it already is), will they be picked up by the lifeboats? Or will they be left to drown?
The koporats are thinking fourteen times. After the pirate ship goes down, the new captains will be tied with chains to the nearest coconut tree.
Everything they do will be scrutinised. Every single contract that has been awarded will also be scrutinised.
There may be a South African style Justice Commission that will be set up to go through and pick off all the wrongdoers.
So do the koporats still want to be identified with a sinking pirate ship?
I was at Tun Dr Mahathir's recent buka puasa cum 90th birthday party on Friday 10 July 2015.
I was surprised to see some koporats in attendance whom I have not seen in a while. One oil and gas guy is being hit by serious cashflow issues in the industry. The banker guy (yup it was THAT bank) looked pretty uneasy. - syedsoutsidethebox
Malaysia Needs Tengku Razaleigh Now...
The current parlous state of affairs in our country reminds me of one of my favorite songs from the 1960s, Simon & Garfunkel’s “Mrs. Robinson,” only with the Joe Dimaggio reference changed to fit today’s crisis in Malaysia:
Where have you gone, Tengku Razaleigh? / A nation turns its lonely eyes to you. (woo woo woo)
While Paul Simon’s lyric was melancholy whimsy about a famous baseball player, the feeling in Malaysia is deeper and speaks to our need for someone to rescue the country from the mess surrounding Prime Minister Najib Razak, his wife and much of the United Malays National Organization power structure.
The quickly unfolding scandal of the past week prompted by press reports about US$700 million from a government investment fund finding its way into Najib’s bank accounts has only added further confirmation to what many Malaysians already know: the long-standing UMNO dominated political structure is rotten at its core.
A leader is needed not just to replace Najib with another tainted personality but to begin a fundamental housecleaning that addresses deep-seated corruption and the distortions of the race-based policies of the past several decades.
Enter Razaleigh?
The only politician from either side of the aisle in Malaysia today who is widely perceived to be a man of integrity and honor and who might be trusted to restore some credibility to government is Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, known by everyone here as Ku Li.
A former finance minister and Malaysia’s longest-serving Member of Parliament, Ku Li has been a marginal figure in Malaysian politics since 1987, when he quit the cabinet after challenging Mahathir Mohamad for the leadership of UMNO. It was a bitter battle that saw Mahathir emerge as the strongman of his generation, a role he seems to think he has never relinquished.
By stepping into the shadows, Ku Li avoided the scandals of Mahathir’s government and the subsequent sleaze that surrounded first Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and now Najib. Anyone who has been at center stage is tainted. As a result of this history, Razaleigh is seen as a statesman rather than a mere politician.
Sadly, instead of seizing his moment, Ku Li is staying true to his character by waiting for the prime minister’s office to be handed to him by consensus rather than aggressively going after it.
This is not the time to be aloof. This is a crisis and our future as a nation really does hang in the balance. Ku Li needs to make a move, as numerous people of good will have urged him to do. He must not leave this to fate or the opportunity to clean up the UMNO system will be lost.
Accept the challenge
When – or if – Najib steps down or is ousted as prime minister, the biggest challenge facing his successor will be how to repair the fissures that have inflicted deep scars on the national psyche and the country’s institutions. Razaleigh seems to be the only person able to lead this mammoth task.
If Mahathir and his ally Daim Zainuddin return to take over power in UMNO, they will return the party to the way Mahathir built it during his 22 years in office, a corrupt and rent-seeking system for Malay elites with little real attention to the kampungs beyond frightening them with tales of coming Chinese dominance.
As an elder statesman who abides by the founding principles not only of UMNO but the nation, Razaleigh, 78, is a throwback to the days when Malaysian politics, while often rambunctious, still had a noble purpose. Compare that to the widespread perception today that most politicians from UMNO and its Barisan Nasional coalition partners are simply out for personal gain and to graze at the trough of the national wealth.
Given his status and principles, there is growing bewilderment about Razaleigh’s silence on the latest scandal. The money apparently sloshed into Najib’s accounts from 1 Malaysia Development Bhd. and the many related and mounting scandals are a national disgrace. It is all, finally, too much.
Perhaps Razaleigh’s reluctance to publicly chastise and challenge Najib stems from loyalty to Najib’s father, Tun Abdul Razak Hussein, the country’s second prime minister.
Tun Razak handpicked the then-youthful Razaleigh to help establish Bank Bumiputra and later charged him with setting up and running the national oil corporation, Petronas. Some say that within UMNO circles at the time, it was known that Tun Razak explicitly endorsed Razaleigh as a future prime minister. But others are less charitable.
They believe that Razaleigh’s current approach is calculated: he may be positioning himself as a candidate for a senior post in a cabinet reshuffle widely expected to be executed by Najib soon after the Aidil-Fitri celebrations later this month. Of course, that will depend on whether Najib is still in office by then.
The worry for many of us is that by his silence, Razaleigh risks losing the credibility and general good will he enjoys both in elite circles and among grassroots UMNO members. “He needs to speak out, and soon. The longer he is out of the public eye on an issue of such import, the higher the possibility that he will become just another footnote in history,” said one observer.
Let me add my voice to this. Sir, your nation needs you. Our lonely eyes really are looking your way.- Mohd Hussein Yussof, Asia Sentinel
Saya Cina pun benci kena tipu...
Amatlah tidak wajar segelintir pihak melabelkan keseluruhan kaum Cina adalah penipu. Ini kerana insiden pergaduhan yang berlaku di Plaza Low Yat tiada kena mengena dengan bangsa.
Malangnya, sikap rasis dalam masyarakat kita sudah tidak dapat dibendung lagi dan keadaan seperti ini tidak menguntungkan semua pihak.
Dari awal insiden sehinggalah ke hari ini, ramai yang mendakwa tertuduh mempunyai resit pembelian sebagai bukti dirinya ditipu. Malangnya penyebaran khabar angin 'hearsay' tanpa mengemukakan gambar resit itu masih membuatkan orang ramai tertanya-tanya siapakah yang berada di pihak yang benar.
Tampil seorang gadis Cina cuba meredakan keadaan bahawa apa yang terjadi ini tidak membabitkan soal kaum di negara ini.
BACA KENYATAAN DARI GADIS CINA DI BAWAH:
Saya sebagai Cina pun benci kena tipu. Saya faham perasaan kena tipu. Saya pun tahu banyak Cina yang suka tipu tetapi bukan semua Cina suka tipu sebab ada Cina pun benci kena tipu dari orang.
Dulu, saya pernah satu kali beli phone di Low Yat, kena tipu juga. Sampai rumah, phone rosak. Balik ke sana, diorang cakap tak boleh tukar la, orang yang jual sudah tidak bekerja di sana.
Mulai dari hari itu sampai sekarang, saya tidak pernah pergi beli barang di Low Yat lagi. Kalau kita sudah tahu diorang itu penipun, jangan pergi beli dengan dia lagi. Tak payah pergi kedai sana, pergi beli barang di kedai lain.
Kalau orang tipu, apa bangsa pun ada. ORang jahat bukan Cina sahaja. Melayu, India, Indonesia, apa-apa bangsa pun ada. Tapi kita jangan libatkan bangsa sekali. Kita kan 1 Malaysia?
Cina berkawan dengan Melayu, Melayu berkawan dengan Cina. Macam oarang semua cakap Cina mesti suka tipu. Tapi, sumpah atas nama tuhan saya, saya tak suka tipu orang. Keluarga saya kaya bukan sebab tipu orang.
Orang-orang Melayu yang kerja dengan bapa saya, diorang tahu macam mana. Gaji lagi tinggi dari luar. Bonus semua okay.
Saya suka berkawan dengan orang Melayu sebab bila kita ada hal, diorang akan tolong kita tanpa minta apa-apa. Hati mulia. Itu yang saya suka sangat berkawan dengan Melayu.
Berniaga ini biar jujur supaya orang akan datang balik ke kedai itu. Kalau kena tipu, siapa nak datang balik betul tak? Kalau tipu sebab mahu kaya memang tak akan jadi sebab manusia sekarang tidak bodoh. Siapa pun tak suka kena tipu.
Saya minta maaf dengan Melayu di sini yang pernah ditipu dengan Cina. Saya Cina juga, saya pun pernah di tipu bangsa sendiri. - Stephy Wong
Jika Stephy faham dengan situasi seperti ini, mengapa tidak anda? - THEHYPEMEDIA
cheers.
No comments:
Post a Comment