Hanya satu peratus sahaja yang memisahkan Perdana Menteri, Najib Tun Razak dengan Ketua Pembangkang, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim dalam kajiselidik menjelang pilihan raya umum dijangka diadakan beberapa minggu lagi.
Hasil kajiselidik yang dijalankan oleh Pusat Kajian Demokrasi dan Pilihan Raya Universiti Malaya (Umcedel) menunjukkan Najib ke depan sedikit dengan memperolehi 43 peratus berbanding 42 peratus untuk Anwar 'sebagai paling layak menjadi perdana menteri'.
Dua lagi pemimpin turut dimasukkan dalam kajiselidik itu, dengan Presiden PAS, Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang di tempat ketiga (26 peratus) manakala Timbalan Perdana Menteri, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin di tempat terakhir (22 peratus).
Bagi undi tidak bersetuju pula, Abdul Hadi menduduki tempat tertinggi (46 peratus), diikuti oleh Muhyiddin (42 peratus).
Di Kalangan Melayu, Najib adalah yang paling popular (46 peratus), diikuti oleh Abdul Hadi (36 peratus), Anwar (34 peratus) dan Muhyiddin (26 peratus).
Keputusannya adalah berbeza di kalangan kaum Cina di mana Anwar muncul paling popular (61 peratus), diikuti oleh Najib (35 peratus), Muhyiddin (15 peratus). Abdul Hadi adalah yang paling kurang popular, meraih hanya dua peratus.
Ketua Kajiselidik Umcedel itu, Prof Mohd Redzuan Othman berkata rating penerimaan terhadap Najib merosot kepada 54 peratus daripada 61 peratus pada kajiselidik Mac-April 2012 dan 58 peratus pada September tahun lepas.
Kajiselidik terbaru ini dijalankan antara 26 Disember dan 11 Januari, dengan 1,409 responden di semenanjung yang ditemuramah secara bersemuka.
Pengundi baru, Anwar lebih popular
Sementara itu, kajiselidik itu mendapati Anwar lebih popular berbanding dengan Najib di kalangan pengundi baru dan kali pertama.
Anwar memperolehi 52 peratus penerimaan dari kumpulan ini, manakala Najib menerima 30 peratus, dengan Abdul Hadi di tempat ketiga (24 peratus) dan Muhyiddin lepas (15 peratus).
Terdapat lebih dua juta pengundi baru dalam pilihan raya umum yang akan datang, yang mewakili kira-kira 20 peratus daftar pemilih, membuat mereka mempunyai kuasa yang kuat.
Responden terbahagi hampir sama rata dalam pilihan antara parti atau calon, dengan 48 peratus meletakkan calon dahulu dan 47 peratus memberikan keutamaan kepada parti.
Bagaimanapun, responden wanita dalam kajiselidik tersebut memberi penekanan yang lebih besar kepada calon - 54 peratus mengatakan calon lebih penting, berbanding dengan 46 peratus sebaliknya.- malaysiakini
Sokongan kepada Pakatan terus meningkat, BN turun – Kajian UM...
Kajian yang dibuat oleh Universiti Malaya (UM) menunjukkan sokongan kepada Pakatan Rakyat terus meningkat dari masa ke semasa dan kini hampir dengan Barisan Nasional.
Ini menghasilkan, persaingan antara Pakatan Rakyat dengan BN pada Pilihan Raya Umum ke-13 (PRU13) kali ini dijangka paling sengit dalam sejarah politik negara.
Hasil kajian yang dibuat Pusat Kajian Demokrasi dan Pilihan Raya Universiti Malaya (UMCEDEL) hari ini menunjukkan hanya perbezaan kecil antara sokongan terhadap kedua-dua kumpulan politik yang bertanding itu.
Dalam hasil kajian yang didedahkan hari ini, daripada 1409 responden, 42 peratus menjangkakan BN akan menang, 37 peratus pula yakin kemenangan berpihak kepada Pakatan Rakyat manakala 21 peratus tidak pasti.
Dalam kajian sebelum ini, sokongan untuk Pakatan hanya bermula dengan Pakatan 18%, BN 43% (Disember 2011), Pakatan 21%, BN 49% (April 2012) dan Pakatan 30%, BN 44% (September 2012).
Yang terbaru, sokongan kepada Pakatan sudah 37% dan BN turun kepada 42% manakala 21% lagi masih atas pagar.
Pengarah UMCEDEL, Prof Dr Mohammad Redzuan Othman berkata, hasil itu menunjukkan pertarungan antara kedua-dua kelompok parti bertanding pada waktu ini adalah bersifat terbuka.
“Kita boleh kata penentu kemenangan bagi kedua-dua parti yang bertanding adalah golongan 21% ini,” katanya ketika membentangkan hasil kajian itu di Pejabat UMCEDEL, di UM hari ini.
Memperincikan golongan 21 peratus ini beliau berkata, jika mengikut pecahan bangsa, paling tinggi adalah golongan Tionghua iaitu 53 peratus.
Dari segi pendidikan pula, paling tinggi adalah gologan lepasan ijazah iaitu 49 peratus.
Peringkat umur pula, peratusan paling tinggi adalah yang berumur antara 21 hingga 30 tahun.
“Jika dalam kategori status mengundi, peratusan paling tinggi adalah golongan yang kali pertama mengundi iaitu sebanyak 48%,” katanya.
Menurut beliau lagi, parti yang mampu menguasai golongan 21 peratus ini mempunyai peluang untuk menang pada pilihan raya umum nanti.
Hasil kajian ini dibuat UMCEDEL bermula 26 Disember lalu hingga 11 Januari tahun ini. - Harakah Daily
Integriti dan salahgunakuasa BN akan beri kesan buruk dalam PRU
Najib, Anwar running neck-and-neck in popularity...
There is only one percentage point separating Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak and Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim in a survey as the two go head-to-head in an election expected to be called within weeks.
The survey conducted by Universiti Malaya Centre for Democracy and Elections (Umcedel) gives Najib a slight lead of 43 percent against Anwar's 42 percent as the 'most qualified to be prime minister'.
Two other leaders were included in the survey, with PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang ranked third (26 percent) while Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin finished last (22 percent).
Abdul Hadi ranked highest in negative votes among those survey (46 percent), followed by Muhyiddin (42 percent).
Among the Malays, Najib is most popular (46 percent), followed by Abdul Hadi (36 percent), Anwar (34 percent) and Muhyiddin (26 percent).
The results are different among the Chinese. Anwar is by far the most popular (61 percent), followed by Najib (35 percent), Muhyiddin (15 percent). Abdul Hadi is the least popular, garnering a mere 2 percent.
Umcedel survey team leader Prof Mohd Redzuan Othman also noted that Najib's approval rating is on the slide, garnering 54 percent in this latest survey compared to 61 percent in March-April 2012 and 58 percent last September.
The latest survey was conducted between Dec 26 and Jan 11, with 1,409 respondents in the peninsula interviewed face to face.
New voters favour Anwar
Meanwhile, the survey finds that Anwar is more popular than Najib among the new and first-time voters.
Anwar obtained 52 percent approval from this group, while Najib received 30 percent, with Abdul Hadi coming in third (24 percent) and Muhyiddin last (15 percent).
There are more than two milliion new voters in the forthcoming general election, representing some 20 percent of the electoral roll, making them a powerful force.
The respondents are split almost evenly on the choice between party or candidate, with 48 percent putting the candidate first and 47 percent giving piority to the party.
However, women respondents in the survey place greater emphasis on the candidate - 54 percent saying the candidate is more important, as opposed to 46 percent. -malaysiakini
BN’s integrity, Pakatan’s infighting key factors for polls, survey shows
Survey puts Pakatan 5pct behind BN for Putrajaya...
Pakatan Rakyat stands just five percent behind BN in popular votes, according to a recent face-to-face survey conducted in the peninsula.
The survey of 1,409 respondents conducted between Dec 26 and Jan 11 by the Universiti Malaya Centre for Democracy and Elections (Umcedel) gives BN a 42 percent chance of retaining Putrajaya, while Pakatan received 37 percent, with a high 21 percent still undecided.
And
despite the decline in Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak's popularity,
touching just 54 percent, the conclusion of the Umcedel team is that BN
would retain Putrajaya."However, the longer the BN keeps holding back the election, the more detrimental it will be to the ruling coalition," Umcedel's Prof Mohd Redzuan Othman said today.
"There are the 21 percent who remained undecided in the survey. They are indecisive as to who would take Putrajaya and this would remain the battleground.
"However, we know the inclinations, but we cannot not reveal them here," said Mohd Redzuan, who earlier in the week stated BN is likely to retain Putrajaya, but not expected to garner a two-thirds majority.
According to Umcedel's survey, Mohd Redzuan said the majority of the 21 percent who were undecided were Chinese (53 percent), first-time voters (48 percent) and university graduates (43 percent).
The question Umcedel had posed to the respondents was: "In suggesting that they are non-partisan, which parties do they think would win in the next general election and who would be in Putrajaya?"
However, he said that popular vote is not a clear indication as to which coalition would win in the coming general election, given widespread gerrymandering of seats.
In the 2008 general election, Pakatan won 49.6 percent of the popular vote but took a little over one-third of the parliamentary seats while BN bagged 50.4 percent of the popular vote, but won 63.1 percent of the seats.
Meanwhile, according to the poll, the hottest issues plaguing BN are concerns over its integrity and abuse of power.
Besides those, the other factors which may erode support towards BN are the National Feedlot Corporation (NFC) scandal, Lynas Advanced Material Plant (Lamp), efforts to reduce crime, failure to control price increase and also the coalition’s lengthy duration in running the country.
Meanwhile, the main issue plaguing Pakatan is the internal squabbling amongst the coalition partners.
Those polled also cited weaknesses in Pakatan-led state administrations, the dominance of DAP and non-Malays in Pakatan, as well as its fear of losing political power, as reasons which are turning voters away.
Selangor, Kelantan, Penang to go to Pakatan
Mohd Redzuan (left) also said he expects Pakatan to retain the states of Selangor, Kelantan and Penang.On commenting on the political situation in Selangor, he said there is uncertainty in BN as to who will be the menteri besar should the ruling coalition succeed in wrestling back the state.
“However, those polled, including those working in public and private sectors, like what present Menteri Besar Abdul Khalid Ibrahim is doing.
"Initially in 2010, when the first poll was conducted, there was uncertainty as the Pakatan government was new.
“However, over time, the people can now compare the four years under Pakatan rule to the 50 or so years under BN, with regards to Selangor,” he said.
Similarly in Kelantan, while noting support for BN is catching up, he said the holding factor for PAS is present Menteri Besar Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat.
In giving an example, he said of 10 polled, six would say they support PAS, while the remaining four were BN supporters.
“But when we asked what if Nik Aziz were to run (for election), out of the same 10, nine would say they support Nik Aziz,” he said frankly.
BN has been mooting International Trade and Industry Minister Mustapa Mohamed as a possible menteri besar should they win in the state.
The poll also indicated that the Pakatan government has a huge lead compared to BN in Penang. -malaysiakini
cheers.
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