Seramai 528 tahanan etnik Rohingya meloloskan diri dari Depot Tahanan Imigresen Sungai Bakap, Pulau Pinang awal pagi ini dan enam daripada mereka maut dilanggar kenderaan semasa melintasi jalan di Kilometer 168 Lebuh Raya Utara Selatan (PLUS) berhampiran kawasan Jawi, Nibong Tebal. Seramai 351 pelarian berjaya ditahan semula dan polis melancarkan gerakan mencari mereka yang masih lolos. - mk
Testimoni dari seorang Bangla,kata polis Malaysia
sangat baik bagi duit kopi dah boleh lepas...
'Big Tent' strategy a misreading
of election history...
It has taken the Malaysian opposition seven straight election defeats (in four by-elections and three state elections) to realise they have a problem. For the first time since the acrimonious backdoor coup of the “Sheraton Move” in February 2020, all the opposition parties have openly stated their wish to work together, through a coalition, electoral pact, or other arrangements, under one “Big Tent”.
In March 2022, Bersatu president and former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin started holding meetings with Pejuang, the small party led by Dr Mahathir Mohamad, and PKR, the de facto leader of the largest opposition bloc, Pakatan Harapan.
The other component parties of Harapan, Amanah and DAP, had also talked about a “Big Tent” approach to unite all opposition parties to defeat the incumbent BN that has seemingly regained its dominance.
The “Big Tent” strategy relies on a simple political concept: that the root cause of any incumbent’s electoral success is a disunited opposition. To defeat longstanding powerful regimes, like the stunning successes in Kenya in 2002, Ukraine in 2004, India in 2014, and Mexico in 2000, the opposition must work together.
A 2019 study by political scientists Ostwald, Shuller and Chong called this the “opposition split hypothesis”. A high number of opposition parties contesting in an election would split the opposition votes, thus making it easier for the incumbent (like BN in Malaysia) to clinch a victory with lower winning thresholds.
Using the recent 2022 Johor state election as an example, if the opposition had used a “Big Tent” strategy, it would have saved seats like Kota Iskandar. The Harapan candidate, Dzulkefly Ahmad, had won by a commanding majority of 14,543 votes nearly 4 years ago, but the result in 2022 was vastly different:
This poor showing in 2022 makes the argument for an opposition “Big Tent” irresistible. Combining all the non-BN votes would have allowed the opposition to win the seat by 10,448 votes in a one-on-one contest. If the opposition had used this strategy for the rest of the seats, it would have gained another 19 seats, denying BN its landslide victory.
GE14 a poor ‘Big Tent’ example
Every opposition leader who mentioned the “Big Tent” concept pointed to the historic opposition victory in GE14 that ended BN’s 61-year hegemony. They claimed that Harapan won because it was willing to work with its arch-enemy, Mahathir, then the chairperson of Bersatu, and Mohd Shafie Apdal, from Sabah-based Warisan.
The only problem, however, is that GE14 is a poor example of how to succeed using a “Big Tent” strategy. GE14 was Malaysia’s most competitive election, where the largest coalitions had nationwide three-cornered fights. It was also an election where the Malay votes, representing the majority of the electorate, were split in three ways, with each coalition gaining a vote-share between 25 to 40 percent.
If the opposition split hypothesis held true, BN would have won handsomely in GE14 and Harapan would not have ushered in Malaysia’s first power turnover. GE14 showed that there were other ways for votes to be split.
To illustrate this, let us take one imagined constituency of 100 votes with a three-cornered fight between BN, Perikatan Nasional (PN), and Harapan, with PN as the newly introduced third party:
Scenario A is the classic opposition split scenario where a third party, PN, would split Harapan’s votes, thus making BN’s victory a virtual certainty. However, this assumes that BN’s voters are a monolithic bloc when, in fact, they likely are on a spectrum from borderline-BN supporters to hardcore-BN supporters.
Scenarios B and C are more realistic. In Scenario B, where PN absorbs votes from both BN and Harapan, the latter two still stand a chance to win on a thin majority depending on how many votes PN absorbs. In Scenario C, where PN splits only BN’s votes, this secures a Harapan victory.
‘Big Tent’ the last thing Harapan should do
In GE14, something akin to Scenario C happened. PAS absorbed the weak BN supporters’ votes dramatically because of the perceived Umno-PAS similarities in their Malay-Muslim credentials (with Umno as leader of BN) and public resentment against Najib’s corruption allegations.
Instead of taking votes away from Harapan, PAS took rural, conservative Malay votes from BN. On top of that, Harapan maximised the support from its voter base of urban non-Malays. In this way, a partial split instead of a full opposition split was the principal cause for BN’s surprise defeat in GE14.
The best representation of a “Big Tent” approach was actually GE13 and not GE14, where the opposition formed an unlikely alliance of PKR, DAP, and PAS: Pakatan Rakyat (PR). This set up a nationwide straight fight.
If the opposition split hypothesis held, PR should have walked away with at least 107 seats, or 189 seats in the best-case scenario. Instead, they won only 89 seats - 23 seats shy of taking government.
To win, Harapn should maintain a professional distance from a coalition like PN, because the latter’s ability to split BN’s votes is favourable to Harapan. Joining forces under a “Big Tent” is the last thing it should do.
In Malaysia, the opposition split hypothesis does not hold, making the opposition’s calls for a “Big Tent” strategy a misplaced fantasy. - James Chai,mk
We Are Better Than Them!...
Within the Opposition are the leaders who should lead our Nation. And by leading the Nation, I do not just mean there is a Prime Minister in waiting within the ranks of the Opposition. In fact, there are already a number of able, capable and qualified wannabe Prime Minister waiting to put their hands up should the post of PM becomes vacant after BN’s defeat at PRU15. Hell, at least two of them are ex Prime Ministers! Who shall be PM will be chosen from one of them by common consensus. So let us not worry our selves too much about who should, and should not, be prime minister. There is already an abundance of potential PM's within the rank of the Opposition!
No, it is just not the PM’s post that I am talking about. There are enough able individuals within the Opposition to be Finance Minister, Minister of Home Affairs, Defense Minister, and there are enough good people for all the other Ministries. Whoever is chosen PM from the ranks of the Opposition will be able to put together a Cabinet that we need. Lim Guan Eng, Shafie Apdal, Waythamoorthy, Rafizi Ramli, Nurul Izzah, Hannah Yeoh, Anthony Loke, Mat Sabu, Saifudin Nasution, Fahmi…the list is endless.
There is an abundance of good men and women waiting to do their duty to King and Country, and certainly NOT, for themselves. After the lessons learned in the failure of the PH government ousted after Langkah Sheraton, I bet you they will all now be prepared for all eventualities.
I do not see any frogs among them. I do not see anyone with a racist or religious agenda among them. I do not see any one of the with a personal agenda, among them. And for sure we will keep a constant and benevolent eye on them to make sure that their cakap is serupa bikin.
They lack for only one thing now. A leader worthy enough to lead. A leader who wants to lead because he understands duty and loyalty to the aspirations of the rakyat. A leader selfless and devoted to Malaysia, for Malaysia, and of course a leader of all Malaysians. We know there is all this, and more, within the ranks of the Opposition.
What do they have within Barisan Nasional?
Forget the Chinese, the Indians or the others within BN. There is only UMNO aka the largest political party of any race globally. There is now only the leaders from UMNO that dictates all things within BN. And what leaders they have in UMNO!
Najib, Zahid, Ismail Sabri, Tok Mat, the Umno Court Cluster - and all the have been that never was….Hishamuddin, Nazri, Anwar Musa, KJ, Tajuddin Rahman, Tengku Adnan, and do not forget their guest arrtist, Kak Rosmah of the Hermes Handbags and Pink Diamonds infamy! They are the leaders of UMNO and of Barisan Nasional. Not a solitary individual of merit, grace and respectability among them. Not one! For a shining moment there was Tok Mat who promised much, but he too was felled by the scrounge of that despicable mantra
: “Cash is King”. And with BN are a few of the Royals - including Mr Sultan Down South and Dollah Pendek, all lured by the promise of vast richness.
Pakatan Harapan against Barisan Nasional in PRU15 is really an uneven fight, made despicably more so by CASH. Today, what has then hearsay a few months back is now fact. Pakatan Harapan should not have signed the MOU with Ismail Sabri because Umno will not extend the MOU once it ends in July. And why not? Simply said, Umno intends to buy as many frogs as is possible to ensure that they have the numbers to win PRU15. Umno wants to buy these frogs before, during or after PRU15. They have the inclination, they have the need, and they have the money to do so. There are enough greedy politicians within the ranks of the Opposition who are waiting to be bought when the price is right. The horse-trading has already begun.
Let UMNO do what they want now. Let them say what they want. Let them promise to do everything under the sun for us if they win PRU15. Just remember this. Only one thing stands between victory or defeat for BN at PRU15. OUR VOTES!!!.
So guys go about the task of earning a decent living now. Take care of your family. Do what you must to keep body and soul together until you are asked to cast that one vote that you have. That one vote that you have, when put together with all the others votes cast by other Malaysians who have had enough of greedy and corrupt politicians….just that one vote of yours and the other millions from like-minded Malaysians…. will ensure electoral victory for Pakatan Harapan. Enough said. ABU! - Hussein Abdul Hamid
cheers.
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