Selepas Anwar ke Penjara, Adakah Kedudukan Najib Makin Selamat...
Setelah muktamad hukuman penjara lima tahun dijatuhkan keatas Ketua Pembangkang, Anwar Ibrahim oleh Mahkamah Persekutuan hari ini, kesedihan rakyat hampir dapat dirasai di mana-mana.
Jika sebelum ini, ramai seperti tak kisah mengenainya, barangkali kerana yakin beliau akan dibebaskan, tetapi suasana perbualan amat berbeza sekali selepas hukuman itu dijatuhkan.
Di sebuah cawangan bank yang dipunyai oleh adik Najib Razak, beberapa kakitangannya turut meluahkan kesedihan dengan nasib yang menimpa Anwar dan keluarganya. Mereka terbuka tumpang kasihan dan menyatakan tidak wajar hukuman itu dijatuhkan.
Di sebuah kedai buku yang terkenal di ibukota, hukuman yang diterima Anwar turut menjadi perbualan ramai dan rata-rata tidak menyangka hukuman itu bakal diterima oleh Anwar.
Di sebuah jabatan kerajaan pula, ramai kakitangannya menyatakan rasa sedih yang sama. Ketika berkunjung ke sebuah cafe kemudiannya, tajuk perbualan juga tertumpu kepada hukuman lima tahun penjara itu.
Adalah dipercayai, sejak tengahari tadi, meskipun ada kelompok lain bergembira dengan hukuman keatas Anwar itu, tetapi secara umumnya rakyat dan pengundi biasa di mana juga berkongsi perasaan yang sama.
Luahan rasa sedih dan kasihan atas nasib yang diterima oleh Anwar dan penanggungan oleh keluarganya boleh didengari hampir di mana saja. Kebanyakannya bukan saja menempelak Najib, UMNO dan kerajaan atas hukuman itu, bahkan seperti tidak ternampak tanda-tanda pemenjaraan Anwar menyebabkan kembalinya sokongan rakyat.
Meneliti sejak awal kes liwat ini yang terlalu banyak dicemari dengan unsur-unsur politik, ia akhirnya menutup tirainya dengan sesuatu yang bersifat politik juga.
Dengan dipenjara selama lima tahun, ia bukan saja menyebabkan Anwar hilang kelayakan sebagai Ahli Parlimen Permatang Pauh dan kedudukannya sebagai Ketua Pembangkang turut perlu diganti dengan calon lain, ia juga hampir menutup sama-sekali peluangnya untuk kembali aktif dalam politik.
Jika dalam PRU 14 akan datang beliau dijangka masih berada dalam penjara, tidak boleh bertanding selama lima tahun lagi selepas keluar penjara kerana sekatan undang-undang yang turut menyebabkan Anwar terlepas peluang bertanding dalam PRU 15 nanti.
Dengan usianya ketika ini 67 tahun, beliau hanya mungkin boleh bertanding semula dalam PRU 16 dan ketika itu usianya barangkali sudah tentu terlalu tua.
Dalam hal ini Najib dianggap berjaya "mengkafan" dan "menyemadikan" karier dan cita-cita politik Anwar yang sebelum ini tidak berjaya dilakukan oleh Mahathir Mohamad apabila ketika era kepimpinan Pak Lah, bekas Timbalan Perdana Menteri itu dibebaskan daripada penjara kemudiannya.
Tetapi persoalan yang masih menjadi tanda-tanya ialah apakah dengan pemenjaraan Anwar yang kini mengetuai PR dan dianggap sebagai musuhnya, kedudukan Najib, UMNO dan BN akan bertambah kukuh selepas ini?
Adakah sokongan rakyat, terutama generasi muda akan berarak berbondong-bondong kepada BN atau menyebabkan kebangkitan serta penolakan lebih gagah lagi?
Bagaimana pula dengan kedudukan PR dan PKR, apakah bakal berpecah atau bertambah kukuh?
Apakah ungkapan Anwar sebelum ini bahawa jika beliau dipenjara, undi popular rakyat kepada PR akan meningkat daripada 52 peratus dalam pilihanraya lalu kepada 60 peratus benar-benar menjadi kenyataan?
Lebih penting dari itu, apakah dengan memenjarakan Anwar ini juga menyebabkan bekas Perdana Menteri, Mahathir Mohamad yang sebelum ini sudah menarik balik sokongannya kepada Najib, akan kembali menyokong atau terus mengasak dengan lebih kuat lagi?
Jika kembali menyokong, adakah ini bermakna Mahathir sanggup melupakan penentangannya mengenai 1MDB dan BR1M yang menjadi asasnya menarik balik sokongan kepada Najib itu?
Jika Mahathir terus mengasak pula, bagaimanakah nasib Najib seterusnya? Siapakah yang akan menyelamatkannya? Mampukah beliau terus bertahan untuk melawan Mahathir bersama barisan kabinetnya yang ada sekarang?
Atau adakah selepas ini Najib lebih mudah lagi disingkirkan oleh gerakan yang sudah dimulakan oleh Mahathir sebagaimana yang pernah berlaku kepada Pak Lah dahulu?
Sebenarnya begitu banyak persoalan mengenai "apa berlaku selepas ini" berikutan dengan hukuman penjara lima tahun yang diterima Anwar ini.
Pilihanraya kecil Permatang Pauh yang akan diadakan dalam tempoh terdekat dan siapa Ketua Pembangkang yang baru akan menentukan sejauh mana kebangkitan rakyat dapat dilihat dalam menuju PRU 14, manakala pendirian Mahathir selepas ini pula akan menjadi kayu pengukur sejauh mana Najib masih boleh bertahan lagi dalam UMNO.
Walaupun Anwar mungkin lebih "damai" dipenjara, Najib sebaliknya belum tentu "aman" juga. - Shahbudin Husin@shahbudindotcom.blogspot
Can Najib sleep well now that Anwar’s gone...
For one, Shabudin says in his latest blog posting, a renewed wave of sympathy for Anwar might translate into greater support for Pakatan Rakyat.
Reporting on the talk around town, he says there is sadness for Anwar and his family and disappointment over the Federal Court decision at discussions in coffee shops and office canteens, including in government offices and even a branch of CIMB, a bank headed by one of Najib’s brothers.
“The outpouring of sadness and sympathy for Anwar and his family can be heard nearly everywhere,” he writes. “Many blame Najib, Umno and the government. Indeed, there’s no sign that Anwar’s imprisonment will return the people’s support for them.”
He posed a series of questions, some of which are rhetorical.
“Will the support of the people, especially the younger generation, return massively to Barisan Nasional? Or will Anwar’s conviction result in an even braver uprising and rejection of BN?
“What will happen to Pakatan Rakyat and PKR? Will there be a break-up or a strengthening of the coalition?
“Will Anwar’s prediction that his imprisonment will result in an increase in popular votes for the opposition – from 52% to 60% – come true?
“More important than all that, will former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad return his support to Najib or attack him more fiercely? If he gives back his support, would that mean that Mahathir would be willing to forget about 1MDB and BR1M, which were the reasons he cited for opposing Najib?
“If Mahathir continues with his attack, what will eventually happen to Najib? Who will save him? Will he be able to fight back with the support of his Cabinet?
“Or will it now be easier to oust Najib?”
Shahbudin says those are only some of the questions that have cropped up with Anwar’s conviction.
He says the result of the upcoming by-election in Permatang Pauh will be an indicator of how the 14th general election will go. - fmt
'Hope' cannot be jailed in Jalan Harapan...
Once again, the fortified prison gates opened this evening to 'welcome' its most famous inmate, one that has rattled the powers-that-be for a decade-and-a-half.
In
the past, Anwar Ibrahim spent five years languishing behind its walls
from which he continued to pose a threat to the ruling elite. It was
here that the idea for PKR was conceived.So while concrete and steel could contain his physical existence, they however failed to incarcerate his spirit and mind.
Imprisoning him would not halt the momentum which he triggered following his sacking in 1998.
He dismissal from the government made the biggest crack in the fortress called BN, and he demolished the myth that the ruling coalition was indestructible.
As his lead counsel Gopal Sri Ram argued, this man made immense contributions to the democratisation of this nation.
Rekindle embers, ignite anger
It was because of him that the prime ministers who came after Dr Mahathir Mohamad were forced to dance to a different tune and add new words to their vocabulary such as 'moderation' and 'transformation'.
If not for Anwar, the likes of DAP and PAS would never have been able to reap the resulting electoral spoils, which now some claim have inflated their egos to the point of imploding.
For his diehard supporters, the candle of hope lit by Anwar cannot be extinguished even if he is put behind bars.
On the contrary, his current sentence could prove to be catastrophic for BN given the widespread perception that the judges were executing the bidding of their political masters.
In recent years, Malaysians have been suffering from political fatigue, especially with the opposition displaying traits similar to that of their rivals.
But the decision to imprison a 67-year-old grandfather could rekindle embers and ignite anger.Thorn in the flesh
Anwar is synonymous with the word tenacious, a fact that even his opponents admit to, albeit while gritting their teeth.
Many an opportunity had arose for him to flee this predicament and seek asylum abroad.
But he chose to remain on Malaysian soil. Such is the nature of the man, who since his days as a student leader, has been a fighter right down to the bone.
Even after his dismissal as deputy prime minister, Anwar wasted little if no time wallowing in sorrow but took to the streets in protest.
Since then, he has been a thorn in the flesh for all those who wish to retain their grip on the reins of power.
During Anwar's final stop on his nationwide road show last night, PAS deputy president Mohamad Sabu paid homage to this boldness.
In for a surpriseAcknowledging that the opposition leader was not perfect, Mohamad Sabu pointed out that his courage was undeniable.
The PAS stalwart admitted that if it had been him in the latter's shoes, he might have opted to seek refuge in a foreign country instead of having to undergo the suffering of prison.
And so for those who believe that the sun has set on the opposition leader, they might still be in for a surprise. In or out of a cage, a tiger is still a tiger.
To quote Anwar's scathing speech from the dock this afternoon: "I have fought most of my life [...] My struggle will continue, wherever I am sent and whatever is done to me." - mk
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