Pusara UMNO di tepi bukit, Di tepi pantai Tanjung Puteri...

 

Pada mulanya ramai yang memandang enteng terhadap kebolehan Pakatan Rakyat menembusi kawasan kawasan "fixed deposit" BN, khususnya di Sabah dan di Johor. 

Sikap bongkak ini jelas terserlah apabila Perdana Menteri, Dato Seri Najib Razak menganggap kawasan kawasan tersebut sebagai simpanan tetap BN dimana kalau BN letak batang cangkul jadi calon pun boleh menang.

Akan tetapi kini situasinya sudah berubah.

Kalau di Sabah, Dr Mahathir sudah pun membayangkan bahawa BN akan kehilangan banyak kerusi disebabkan projek IC yang telah merosakkan kestabilan sosio politik di Sabah sehingga terjadinya kes pencerobohan Lahad Datu.  Percubaan mempalitkan Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim ke dalam isu tersebut nyatalah sia sia dan hanya menaikkan kemarahan orang ramai.

 

Di Johor sendiri pun orang ramai tak berapa faham kenapa Dato Seri Hishamuddin begitu bersungguh menanam rasa benci terhadap Tian Chua sedangkan dia pula yang mula-mula berkata penceroboh Lahad Datu tu "orang tua yang kebuluran dan memakai slipar."

Lama kelamaan rakyat pun mula bangun dari tidur dan menyedari hakikatnya bahawa sokongan yang diberi kepada BN tu sokongan yang bakal membawa rebah. 

Kerajaan lebih mementingkan kroni dan sahabat terdekat dari menolong rakyat khususnya orang Melayu bandar yang semakin hari semakin hanyut disebabkan inflasi, tiadanya peluang pekerjaan dan penglibatan kroni bukan Melayu didalam  sektor perniagaan.

Kini perairan Johor pun sudah mula dipukul badai Refomasi.

Berbeza dengan pendukung Perdana Menteri yang memberi pandangan dari jauh, samada ketika melayar Intenet dari rumah ataupun ketika menghirup Mocha Ais Kosong di restoran Coffee Bean (Biji Kopi), sebaliknya kita pula turun ke padang untuk mendapat tahu cerita sebenar dan bukan dari laporan pihak ke tiga.

Mengikut perhatiaan kami nampaknya betulah apa yang Dato Seri Anwar becakap tentang "Kebangkitan Rakyat." Kalau dahulu rakyat Johor, khususnya orang Melayu tidak banyak mengambil kisah sangat pasal politik, tetapi kini situasinya sudah berubah. 

Kemarahan mereka terhadap kekayaan yang dinikmati oleh Menteri BN menjadi pemangkin kepada orang Melayu cuba mendapat gambaran yang lebih jelas dari surat akhbar seperti Sinar Harian ataupun Berita Keadilaan.  

Disini pun isu nasional seperti Isu Lembu NFC diketahui ramai dan ramai pula yang bertanya kenapa tiada sebarang tindakan diambil terhadap Ketua Wanita UMNO.

 

Rata ratanya orang Melayu di Johor, khususnya mereka yang duduk di bandar merasa gelisah kerana takut kampung mereka akan diambil oleh Kerajaan negeri Johor. Mereka mendengar cerita dekat Kempas dan Tampoi rumah setinggan dirobohkan kerajaan negeri dan orang Melayu telah dihalau keluar dari tempat tinggal mereka. 

Ini telah menyebabkan ramai orang Melayu mula menyampah dengan pentadbiran kerajaan negeri kerana memberi keutamaan kepada golongan tertentu dari membantu rakyat tersendiri. Hingga hari ini ramai diantara ketua eksuitif GLC menahan air liur kerana membayangkan pulangan beratus juta ringgit apabila tanah Johor dijual kepada orang asing.

Nama Tan Sri Lim Kang Hoo sudah ada di mulut orang ramai. Mereka tahu bahawa banyak kawasan dan tanah di Johor kini dibawah Tan Sri Lim sementara mereka pula tidak dapat geran tanah walaupun telah berkali kali membuat permohonan. 

 

 Lido Boulevard

Penguasaannya di pantai Lido sudah diketahui ramai dan membuatkan orang cukup marah. Malah ada yang merasa kecewa kerana kerajaan negeri sudah memberi tanah kepada penduduk yang berasal dari Aceh, contohnya di Ulu Tiram sementara mereka memekakan telinga dari mendengar rinithan rakyat sendiri.

Ramai pula yang mula merungut dengan kerajaan Menteri Besar Ghani Othman. Ramai kini mula bercakap tentang wujudnya kerajaan suami isteri di Johor. Mereka menganggap kerajaan yang ada sekarang lebih membelakangkan kepentingan orang berada dan tidak mengambil berat terhadap nasib rakyat tempatan.

Dalam pada itu Parti Keadilaan Rakyat (PKR) sudah dapat mengembangkan sayapnya di merata tempat. Semalam ceramah membabitkan Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim di Kampung Melayu Majidee mendapat sambutan yang begitu hangat. 

Walaupun BN kononnya mendabik dada kononnya mustahil untuk Johor jatuh kepada Pakatan Rakyat, namun tanda tanda kegelisahan BN sudah jelas kelihatan. Contohnya ketika ceramah DSAI berlaku, BN cuba menggangu ceramah tersebut dengan mengadakan pertunjukkan "Live Band" dan membunyikan musik dengan kuat.

Pekara tersebut kini menjadi perbualan orang setempat. Orang yang tak hadir dengan ceramah pun menyampah dengan karenah UMNO yang bikin kacau dan tidak mahu memberi peluang kepada rakyat mendengar hujah orang lain. 

Rakyat menganggap perbuatan tersebut sebagai gelagat yang biadap dan memalukan UMNO sendiri. Maka kami nampak tanda tanda kehancuran UMNO amat jelas sekali. Walaupun bendera BN dan UMNO dipacak merata tempat, itu tidak bermaksud parti tersebut menjadi pilihan pengundi.

Misalnya semalam sahaja lebih kurang 10,000 penduduk setempat meramaikan ceramah Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim. Minggu lepas lebih 50,000 orang membanjiri sambutan ulang tahun DAP di Gelang Patah. 

Tetapi kalau kita lihat dari luar, kawasan-kawasan tersebut nampak seolah-olah kawasan totok UMNO/BN disebabkan ada banyak bendera UMNO/BN yang berkibar dari pintu masuk hinggalah ke kawasan pendalaman.

Penghujungnya, kita melihat mood rakyat di Johor, khususnya di kawasan bandar seakan akan mood rakyat di Sibu. 

Ini kerana mereka barulah bangkit dan sedar  bahawa rakyat telah pun diperbodohkan sebegitu lama semenatara kerjaan bersandiwara dengan pelbagai kata singkatan yang tidak membawa sebarang makna. Maka rakyat bersedih dan semangat untuk mahu membuat perubahan mula membenak di dalam hati orang ramai.  

Akhirnya ianya akan diterjemahkan melalui peti undi dan pemimpin BN mungkin akan terkejut apabila mendapat tahu simpanan tetapnya telah dicairkan oleh jentera Pakatan Rakyat.- pirates of putrajaya

Combating UMNO at its birthplace on a multi-ethnic front...

Now that DAP parliamentarian Lim Kit Siang is to contest in the Gelang Patah parliamentary seat, Pakatan Rakyat will have shift its resources to help him and its other candidates in Johor, a Malay-dominated BN stronghold. 

As the birthplace of Umno, the nation’s longest and strongest political party, Johor has unique electoral characteristics, including voter distribution and a political culture, that have made it a safe haven for many BN leaders.

The key to capturing the state will lie in Pakatan’s ability to find multi-ethnic support among voters, a prolonged weakness that the coalition has been struggling to overcome.

A glance at the 15 parliamentary constituencies that Lim has identified as winnable seats reveals that Pakatan is building its battle line to connect constituencies in the south, centre and north of the state.

The seats are Bakri, Segamat, Muar, Labis and Ledang in the north; Kluang, Batu Pahat and Sembrong in the centre; and Tebrau, Pasir Gudang, Johor Baru, Pulai, Gelang Patah, Kulai and Tanjung Piai in the south.

These seats are located at either side of the North-South Expressway which is constructed along the west coast of Johor. Most comprise mixed constituencies in urban and semi-urban areas.

Lim's candidacy could create a ripple effect into the surrounding urban constituencies in southern Johor, including Johor Baru, Kulai, Pulai, Tebrau, Pasir Gudang, and even to nearby suburbs like Tanjung Piai.

The challenge for Pakatan will be to extend its targeted “political storm” to constituencies in the centre and north of the state.

It will have to deal with the fact that, in Johor, there is no seat where Chinese Malaysians make up more than 70 percent of the voters, unlike in several other parts of the country.

Twelve of the 15 seats consist of 40 percent Chinese voters - of these the parliamentary constituency of Kulai has the highest percentage at 58 percent, followed by Bakri, Kluang, Gelang Patah and Kulai with more than 50 percent.

Liew Chin Tong, the DAP strategist who will move from Bukit Bendera in Penang to Johor, had predicted that - should Pakatan get 35 percent Malay, 80 percent Chinese and 50 percent Indian support in Johor - 20 parliamentary constituencies will fall like dominoes.

Rainbow team

If Pakatan does not field a credible line up of multi-ethnic candidates, the DAP will not be able to achieve the “political storm’ on its own. Generally, Malays in Johor are conservative nationalists who view the DAP as a Chinese party.

It is learnt that Pakatan is mobilising more high-profile leaders to contest in Johor, particularly from PKR and PAS which will be tasked with winning Malay support.

PAS vice-president Salahuddin Ayub and former army chief Gen (Rtd) Md Hashim Hussein, who joined PKR on March 6, are expected to contest in Pulai and Johor Baru respectively.

PKR is likely to send another retired army deputy chief, Lt-Gen (Rtd) Abdul Ghafir Abdul Hamid, to contest Pasir Gudang.

Johor PKR chief and former MCA strongman Chua Jui Meng, who has been out of the public eye since March 18 - when Lim was announced at the Gelang Patah candidate - is tipped to contest Segamat despite his disgruntlement with the seat allocation.

PAS is expected to field a Chinese and an Indian candidates in Johor, in part to ward off the MCA claim that it is an ‘extremist’ party.

The proposed 'rainbow team’ is expected to pose a strong challenge to BN led by Johor Menteri Besar Abdul Gani Othman.

Pakatan's analysis has shown that Malay support for it in previous elections has been abysmal, with only 10-20 percent in certain Malay-majority constituencies.

The Tenang by-election in January 2011, for example, proved that PAS had failed to make inroads into Felda settlements in spite of the efforts of its NGO, Anak, led by Mazlan Aliman (right) who is from Johor.

PAS has since focused its campaign on the second and third generations of Felda settlers, hoping that these better educated young voters can help to offset the political affiliation of their parents.

Pakatan will still need to push up Chinese support to between 70 and 80 percent.

In the 2008 general election, the MCA had won seven, or half, of the parliamentary seats it contested in Johor, despite strong anti-establishment sentiments against BN parties in other parts of the country.

To win the Chinese support, Pakatan will have to get through to guilds and associations which have provided solid support for the BN.

It is learnt that Pakatan is trying to get help from former left-wing political activists generally known as lao zuo (the old left), who are currently involved in the Chinese education movement. They enjoy a good reputation among local Chinese communities.

Battle for new voters

Pakatan is further pinning its hopes on young voters who are working in Johor Baru and Singapore to return to their hometowns to ‘vote for change’. The coalition believes that it has higher support among those exposed to alternative information via cyberspace.

The Pakatan analysis has found that many of them had not registered as voters or did not vote in 2008. However, the unexpected “political tsunami” may lead them to show more enthusiasm this time around.

The 20-40 percent increase in new voters in the parliamentary seats will not necessarily be unfavourable to the BN.
    
For instance, Sembrong, now held by Home Minister Hishammuddin Hussein, has more than 8,000 new voters, or 25 percent more than in 2008. About 70 percent were registered via political parties, most likely Umno, as Pakatan’s machinery is weak in this rural seat.

There are internal problems that Pakatan must overcome in Johor - the weak grassroots organisation of PKR and PAS; unhappiness among PKR and DAP local leaders over the fielding of 'parachutists' in their constituencies; and seat allocations decided by the central leadership of each party.

A successful battle in Johor will not only help open Pakatan to open the door to Putrajaya, but will also be a litmus test for its credibility as a multi-ethnic electoral force capable of breaking the BN’s dominance of Malaysia's middle ground.-malaysiakini

Pasukan pelbagai kaum harapan Pakatan di Johor

cheers.