P59 and N25 - Time for two referendums on Najib.....

Just when I thought that politics in Malaysia could not get more exciting, it does. Prime Minister in waiting, Najib Tun Razak, made a bold and successful maneuver to wrest the state of Perak from the Pakatan Rakyat coalition. He knew he would take a short-term hit to his popularity not only in the state of Perak but in other parts of the country as well. His strategy of buying time for now in hope that he can rebuild the support for Barisan Nasional in time for the next general elections, due in 2013, was contingent on exactly that - having time.

He did not count on an ‘act of God' on the one hand and an ‘act of indiscretion' on the other to throw two spanners into the works. The surprising death of PAS MP, Roslan Shaharum, in the Bukit Gantang constituency and the unexpected resignation of PKR assemblyperson, V Arumugam in the Bukit Selambau constituency in Kedah, has given voters an unique opportunity to, in effect, have two ‘referendums' on the recent events in Perak. It is likely that the BN and Najib will lose these two referendums, with perhaps larger majorities compared to March 2008.

The Election Commission will have 60 days to hold by-elections in both seats, which would likely occur before the Umno General Assembly at the end of March. With the events in Perak still fresh in the minds of voters, the issue dominating both by-elections would be the manner in which the BN formed the new state government in Perak and perhaps how the BN was trying to dislodge the state government in Kedah using similar tactics.

In a previous article, I wrote that BN's ‘coup' in Perak is actually advantageous to Pakatan from an electoral perspective. These two by-elections will put my assertions to the test. A closer examination of both seats will show the uphill task the BN faces in both of these seats.

When BN reigned supreme

Before March 2008, it would have been ludicrous to even suggest that BN would lose these seats in any election. Even during the 1999 general elections, when Malay support for the BN fell dramatically, the BN managed to retain both Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau with a 5101 and 5984 majority respectively. The BN retained both seats with a 6702 and 7695 majority respectively in 2004. Both can be considered ethnically 'mixed' constituencies, the stronghold of the BN in previous elections save that of March 2008. Of the two, Bukit Gantang has a higher percentage of Malay voters at 63.4 percent, compared to 50.2 percent in Bukit Selambau.

Table 1 below shows the ethnic composition of both seats using data from the 2008 general elections.

BUKIT GANTANG

Malays - 63.5%
Chinese- 27.1%
Indians- 9.1%
Others- 0.2%

BUKIT SELAMBAU

Malays- 50.2%
Chinese-19.3%
Indians-29.5%
Others-1.0%

However, in March 2008, the BN managed to lose both seats with majorities of 1566 and 2362 respectively. The manner in which the BN lost both these seats is important in determining the results in the upcoming by elections.

Using results at the ‘saluran' level, I was able to estimate the level of Malay and non-Malay support for the BN in both seats in the 2008 general elections. The results are shown in Table 2 below.

BUKIT GANTANG

Malay BN support- 52.6%
Non-Malay BN support- 34.8%

BUKIT SELAMBAU

Malay BN support- 63.3%
Non-Malay BN support- 25.8%

In both seats, the BN managed to retain a majority of support among Malay voters. What caused the BN to lose both seats is the fact that its support among the non-Malay voters collapsed. This collapse is even more surprising given that the non-Malay voters in Bukit Gantang were voting for a PAS candidate and those in Bukit Selambau were voting for an independent candidate, who for all intents and purposes, was not that well qualified. (V Arumugam joined PKR when he won this seat). The hopes for BN to recapture any of these two seats rest on being able to win more of the Malay vote. The chances of BN recapturing any non-Malay support dissipated with the toppling of the Pakatan state government which was very popular among the non-Malays, many of whom were expecting a more relaxed attitude towards the renewal of land licenses.

BN ‘backlash'

The ISA arrest of popular DAP leader, Teresa Kok, will no doubt be used again by Pakatan in both these by-elections as will the more recent murder of A Kugan whilst under policy custody, whose case was not managed well at all by the Home Ministry. The non-Malay support for the BN will no doubt drop further in Bukit Gantang to perhaps as low as 20 percent, as may the level of non-Malay support in Bukit Selambau. It is unlikely that non-Malay voters in these two seats would repeat the voting behaviour of the non-Malays in the recent Kuala Terengganu by-election, where an anticipated swing against the BN did not materialise.

The non-Malay voters in both these constituencies have already shown that they are willing to vote for the opposition in large numbers. For example, in the new village of Kuala Sapetang in Bukit Gantang, which is 97 percent Chinese, the support for the BN in 2008 was 28.7 percent. Similarly in the polling station of Bukit Rusa in Bukit Selambau, which is 71 percent Indian, the support for the BN in 2008 was 29.8 percent. No doubt the BN will attempt to ‘bribe' or perhaps ‘threaten' the non-Malay voters in Bukit Gantang on the issue of land licenses but it would be difficult to overcome the level of ‘betrayal' that many of these voters would be feeling after the ‘coup' in Perak.

The same strategy cannot be used in Kedah since the state government is still in the hands of the opposition, under a PAS-led government. There will not be the same kind of fear in facing a BN ‘backlash' in Bukit Selambau if the non-Malays there voted in an opposition candidate. Some may argue that the Malay vote in Bukit Gantang is fully capable of swinging at least a few percentage points in favour of the BN. The BN would campaign on the basis that the Perak government is now firmly back in the hands of the ‘Malays', making the not so subtle point that DAP was dominating the previous state government.

Furthermore, the rebellious actions of the former MB, Mohd Nizar Jamaluddin, and the threat by Karpal Singh to sue the Sultan of Perak may spur more Malays to back the BN candidate this time around. These campaign strategies may work but only if one believes the following: that the recently deposed Pakatan government was genuinely unpopular among the Malays, that Nizar himself enjoyed low approval ratings among the Malays, that the Malays in Perak are united in supporting the actions of the Sultan in the recent ‘coup', that the Malays in Perak were unambiguously supportive of how the two PKR and one DAP assemblypersons were ‘bought', all of which can be contested and challenged.

Who will be chosen?

And if Pakatan fields Nizar to run in this parliamentary constituency, which coincidentally is also where the state seat of one of the PKR defectors (Changkat Jering) lies, it will be difficult to stop Malay ‘sympathy' votes from going to the former PAS menteri besar. Thrown into this mix is the challenge of selecting a suitable BN candidate in the midst of an Umno election. This seat was ‘allocated' to Gerakan in 2004 in exchange for Gerakan ‘ceding' Taiping to PPP president, M Kayveas, and was ‘returned' to Umno in the 2008 elections.

This means that there is no ‘front-runner' within Umno to lay claim to this seat. If Abdul Azim Mohd Zabidi, the current Umno treasurer, runs again in this seat, the opposition will likely have a field day in playing up all the 'scandals' associated with him. If another ‘lesser' Umno leader is chosen, he or she has to face the potential of disgruntled factions within Umno not campaigning for him or her as was the case in the recent KT by-election.

BN's challenge to win back the Bukit Selambau seat is even more challenging. There, PAS will make full use of the fact that the BN is trying to destabilise the Malay dominant state government of PAS by employing some of the same tactics used in Perak. The BN will have its hands full trying to retain the Malay vote in this PAS governed state. PAS can easily peel away some of the Malay vote for the BN, which at 63 percent in 2008, has little upside and lots of downside. There is very little which Pakatan actually needs to do except to show up and campaign in both by-elections. This is very much a referendum (or two) on the BN rather than on Anwar and Pakatan even though there is ample room to criticise the strategies and coherence of the opposition coalition and its de facto leader.


In other words, this is as close to a ‘nightmare' scenario as you can possibly get, from Najib's perspective. After losing Permatang Pauh and Kuala Terengganu, he faces the prospect of another two by-election losses, very likely with larger losses compared to March 2008. After the triumph of snatching back Perak, Najib and the BN will more than likely go into the Umno General Assembly ruing yet another political setback and loss of political momentum. - by Ong Kiang Ming

source: Malaysiakini

cheers.