Jailing Anwar or letting him loose on the hustings...

Some people enjoy a game of poker. In this game, one must be able to call the bluff. For instance, your 4 opened cards on the table reveal 4 Kings whereas your opponent's 4 opened cards on the table reveal 3 Aces and 1 dud or useless card. He tells you that he has the 4th Ace in his hidden hand. Will you choose to believe him and close shop or would you be willing to put big money on the table and dare him to show his hidden card? Are you brave enough to call his bluff?

Prime Minister Najib Razak may not play the card game of poker as he is a Muslim and Islam forbids it, but he certainly plays political poker and no where is it more evident than in the Sodomy II Trial of Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim.

As Najib intends to call for snap polls this year, he has to decide whether it is better to leave Anwar alone to campaign on the hustings or would it be more advantageous if his arch-enemy is put firmly behind bars.

Let us look at the first scenario of Anwar being acquitted of the sodomy charge.

In such a case Anwar will be able to go around giving fiery ceramahs or political talks to convince people that Pakatan Rakyat is the better choice. The Opposition Leader will be able to marshall the forces of DAP and PAS, and harness their strength to boost the PR coalition. Anwar could really do wonders if he is acquitted and freed from the burden of the trial hanging over him like the sword of Damocles. With peace of mind, he can galvanise the rakyat into throwing their support behind the opposition.

On the other hand, if Anwar is behind bars, Pakatan members and supporters may be demoralised and lose hope. The fire in their belly may be doused, they may lose the morale to fight even before the polls are called.

Own goal

Even so, conventional wisdom dictates that it is far smarter to allow Anwar the chance to campaign all round the country. It is still the better option, with Najib standing to gain substantial Malay votes if he is seen to be benevolent towards his enemy. Najib must do well to remember that in the 10th General Election in 1999 when Anwar was jailed on charges of corruption and sodomy, Terengganu fell to PAS as the Malays were sympathetic towards Anwar and they were angry with the government for what had happened to Anwar.

Continuous attacks on Anwar will backfire on BN as the vote of the Malays will swing towards Pakatan. Anwar is no ordinary Malay leader. He was a former UMNO deputy president, a former Deputy Prime Minister and a former Acting Prime Minister. His popularity far exceeded Najib's and even former premier Mahathir Mohamad.

To jail him would not only spark condemnation and calls of "coward" against Najib, already-rising Malay anger will blaze even hotter at what they perceive to be the persecution of a fellow-Malay.

BN's overzealous attacks on Anwar will be 'over-kill'. It will be an own goal, turning the Malay psyche against themselves as it had happened in 1999. History has shown such results and Najib should take note of it.

Therefore, it is wiser for Najib to heed common sense and allow justice to be fully carried out instead of piling pressure on the courts to whip up a decision that favour him and BN.

Time for Najib to mull

Nonetheless, should Najib waver and Anwar is jailed and the BN still wants to win elections, the only way out would be for the BN to use gutter politics. Besides the Datuk T sex video, this also involves adding phantom voters to the voter rolls and other dubious shenanigans with the assistance of the Election Commission.

As it is, there are already reports by PAS lawmakers that a substantial amount of names have been added to the voter rolls: more than 70,000 in Selangor, above 60,000 in Kedah and above 50,000 in Perak.

PKR MP for Subang Sivarasa Rasiah informed Malaysia Chronicle that the Sodomy II Trial which begins on June 6 and scheduled to finish on June 30 will surely not see its end by June 30. Sivarasa, a lawyer by profession, said this type of trial usually takes a few months at the very least.

Thus, Najib will have time to mull over which is the better choice: to let his enemy have free rein to go around campaigning for the polls or to have him immobilised. Najib is not a cut and slash decision-maker. He is one who weighs his options slowly. Perhaps much too slowly as witness the deteriorating economy.

Resurgent Anwar

Meanwhile, Monday's failure by Anwar's lawyers to recuse the trial judge for incompetence and bias will buy time for Najib to do lots of mulling over the matter.

Anwar's defense had wanted to disqualify the judge, arguing that he was biased and had shut out their arguments by saying the complainant Saiful Bukhari Azlan was a witness of truth.

"This shows Yang Arif is biased and inclined, and this is obvious. Your lordship acted beyond what is required by law," Anwar's lead counsel told the court on Monday morning.

But Judge Mohd Zabidin Mohd Diah rejected the application for him to stand down on the basis it had no merit. However, he allowed a deferment to July 13 and a stay of the trial pending an appeal by the defense.

Where this judge is concerned, there have been two previous serious instances of incompetence. The first instance was when he allowed reporters and photographers into the closed-door proceedings at the bedroom of the condominium unit where the alleged sodomy took place. The next day a picture of Saiful Bukhari Azlan (the complainant) pointing at the bed was splashed across the local dailies.

The second instance was when the case should have been thrown out due to Saiful having a romantic liaison with a member of the prosecution team.

At the end of the day, the decision for Najib is actually a very easy one. After all, as BN leaders seem to be confident that the Malay vote and the Indian vote have returned to them, they should have nothing to fear from a resurgent Anwar.

source:Malaysia Chronicle

cheers.