14 December 2017

Di antara Musang King,Jam Tangan dan Kangkung...


Di sebalik terkait dengan skandal 1MDB dan menjadi pemimpin yang mencatat sejarah dunia sejak zaman Nabi Adam kerana mampu meraih derma beribu-ribu juta ringgit yang disalurkan terus kepada akaun bank peribadinya serta menghadapi cabaran sengit daripada Pakatan Harapan yang dipimpin oleh Tun Mahathir Mohamad, Najib Razak tetap bercita-cita untuk mencipta kejayaan gemilang dalam pilihanraya akan datang.

Sesuai dengan tarafnya yang bergelar bilionaire itu, budaya "cash is king"  untuk mengukuhkan kedudukan dan mencapai kemenangan bukan lagi perkara asing di era Najib ini.

Tanyalah Shahrir Samad, Ahmad Maslan, Nazri Aziz dan lain-lain pemimpin atau Ketua-Ketua UMNO Bahagian seluruh negara, tentu mereka tidak menafikan hakikat tersebut.

Dalam Perhimpunan Agung UMNO baru-baru ini, sejarah juga dicatat di mana semua perwakilan telah dihadiahkan oleh Najib dengan sebatang anak pokok durian musang king sebagai tanda kenang-kenangan.



Dengan jumlah perwakilan mencecah kira-kira 3,000 orang dan jika sepokok anak durian musang king berharga RM60, jumlah yang diperlukan untuk membiayainya mungkin boleh membina empat atau lima buah rumah PPRT untuk keluarga-keluarga miskin yang memerlukan.

Jika semua tanaman itu menjadi pula, dalam tempoh empat atau lima tahun akan datang,  meriahlah 13 rumah di setiap bahagian UMNO seluruh negara dengan buah durian itu.

Dalam waktu yang sama, di perhimpunan kali ini juga tersebar  perkhabaran bahawa selain anak pokok musang king, perwakilan juga dihadiahkan dengan seutas jam tangan jenama Tissot yang diletakkan gambar Najib di permukaannya.

Di media-media sosial terpapar dengan meluas gambar-gambar jam berkenaan.

Kalau seutas jam tangan itu berharga RM500 misalnya, bayangkanlah berapa banyak baju dan beg sekolah boleh dibeli dengannya untuk keperluan anak-anak keluarga susah dan daif di seluruh negara.



Seorang Ketua Pemuda UMNO Bahagian mengesahkan beliau memang ada menerima jam tangan tersebut.

Dengan itu, inilah buat pertama kalinya perwakilan UMNO dihadiahkan buah tangan yang boleh dikira mewah dalam Perhimpunan Agung UMNO.

Pemberian seperti itu tidak pernah berlaku sebelum ini kerana Perhimpunan Agung UMNO adalah sebahagian keperluan untuk mengisi perjuangan bangsa, bukannya seperti parti hari jadi atau kenduri kahwin yang semua hadirin harus diberikan "door gift" dan  "bunga telur".

Tetapi, semuanya sudah berubah sejak UMNO dipimpin oleh Najib yang bertaraf bilionaire sekarang ini.

Namun demikian, sesuai dengan keinginan Najib yang begitu dahagakan kemenangan, dapatkah UMNO mencapai kejayaan cemerlang dalam pilihanraya akan datang hanya dengan memberikan hadiah serta buah tangan kepada perwakilan seramai 13 orang di setiap bahagian?



Apakah oleh kerana Najib memberi begitu banyak hadiah dan buah tangan, beliau hanya mengharapkan 13 orang saja di setiap bahagian untuk memenangi pilihanraya akan datang?

Bagaimana dengan Ketua-ketua cawangan, ketua-ketua sayap peringkat cawangan,  ketua-ketua peti undi dan ahli-ahli UMNO yang lain?

Apa buah tangan dan hadiah untuk mereka dalam memastikan kemenangan parti benar-benar dapat dicapai dan tidak terlepas ke tangan Tun Mahathir dan Pakatan Harapan?

Begitu juga dengan rakyat dan pengundi yang akan membuat pilihan nanti? 

Cukupkah sekadar mereka menjadi penonton saja kepada semua hadiah, pemberian dan buah tangan itu, sedangkan untuk membeli sayur kangkung yang dibanggakan Najib telah turun harga dan rakyat harus berterima kasih dengannya, mereka perlu membeli sendiri biji benihnya jika ingin menanam di kawasan rumah mereka? - ShahbudinHusin


Hubungan dengan istana,
jangan termasuk jerat UMNO...

Semua pihak khususnya pemimpin Pakatan Harapan (HARAPAN) diingatkan supaya tidak terjerumus dalam perangkap UMNO yang dilihat galak mengapi-apikan lagi hubungan parti pembangkang dengan pihak istana.

Keadaan itu kata Naib Pengerusi DAP, Tengku Zulpuri Shah bin Raja Puji hanya akan memberi keuntungan politik kepada parti pimpinan Perdana Menteri Datuk Seri Najib Razak.

Menurutnya, tindakan sesetengah pihak dalam UMNO memanjangkan lagi isu melibatkan status twitter Datuk Zaid Ibrahim yang mencetuskan kontroversi baru-baru ini hanya untuk mengalih perhatian rakyat daripada penyelewengan 1MDB.

“Isu yang terus dimainkan ini umpama sengaja mencurah minyak ke dalam api.

“Ia tak lebih daripada untuk mengalihkan isu malapetaka 1MDB dan kesusahan kehidupan rakyat akibat GST, ketidaktentuan harga minyak, kenaikan harga barang serta kejatuhan nilai ringgit,” kata ketika dihubungi Roketkini.

Adun Mentakab itu berkata, UMNO telah memulakan serangan dan propaganda halus mereka dengan mula mencetuskan isu keturunan sehingga ia meleret-leret hingga saat ini.

“UMNO yang mulakan dahulu mainkan isu keturunan, bila dah tak boleh berhujah, mula sebut kepala bapak dan macam macam lagi.

“Kita daripada PH jika ikut perangai mereka – itulah yang mereka mahu, politik maki hamun, adu domba dan bukannya politik kebenaran tapi politik kebencian,” ujar beliau.

Ketua Pembangkang Dewan Undangan Negeri (DUN) Pahang itu berkata, saat ini, UMNO akan cuba mengheret istana dalam politik bagi menjejaskan imej HARAPAN.

“Selepas pihak istana terheret dalam kancah politik, mereka akan mainkan lagu kononnya HARAPAN akan hakis kuasa Raja Raja Melayu,” jelas Tengku Zul.

Sekiranya UMNO berjaya lakukan demikian, sudah tentu imej dan hubungan pihak istana dengan HARAPAN akan terjejas.

“Jadi, kita perlu fokus pada isu rakyat dan jangan terperangkap dalam jerat mainan UMNO ini.

“Jangan termakan dengan adu-domba mereka,” katanya lagi.- roketkini

GE14 ‘Mother Of All Battles’ Shaping Up...

Prime Minister Najib Razak, under siege but fighting back, has beaten the war drums for a do-or-die general election that is just around the corner. Will we see UMNO returned to power, or be replaced for the first time?

Malaysian politics reached a climax over the 9 December 2017 weekend as UMNO, the backbone of the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, went into battle mode to face the impending general election. The 14th election must be called anytime between now and August next year but widely expected to be in the first quarter.

The dominant narrative emerging from the annual UMNO general assembly is a do-or-die “Mother of All Elections” the second time in five years this phrase has been used. BN must not only win big, but also snatch back the two-thirds supermajority it first lost in 2008 and failed to recover in 2013. Is this narrative a reflection of UMNO’s growing confidence of retaining power? Or chest-thumping to whip up the morale of the party that has seen in recent years a series shocks and setbacks, internally and nationally?



UMNO Getting Stronger?

Amidst the current flux in politics, two significant views are emerging. The first is that UMNO is indeed recovering and consolidating itself following the outbreak of the 1MDB scandal in 2015. The serious knock-on effects on BN are obvious given the centrality of UMNO as leader of the coalition. After all the man in the eye of the storm is the prime minister and UMNO president, Najib Razak.

Arising from the crisis, UMNO under Mr Najib has split yet again, leading to the rise of the breakaway Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, also known as PPBM or Bersatu. This new party has among its ranks former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad, former deputy prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin who was sacked for questioning Mr Najib on 1MDB, and former chief minister of an important Malay belt state, Kedah (Mukhriz Mahathir).

More fundamentally, the UMNO split – the fifth in its 71-year history – has also altered the national political landscape, with Bersatu entering into an unprecedented alliance with the opposition Pakatan Harapan coalition, spiritually led by the jailed Anwar Ibrahim, a former deputy prime minister and UMNO Number 2 himself. The net effect is the unthinkable reconciliation between allies-turned-foes Dr Mahathir and Mr Anwar, and the convergence of one former premier, two former deputy premiers and at least one former chief minister in common opposition to Najib. It is not always that Malaysians see so many high-level former UMNO leaders going into combined opposition against a sitting prime minister, a point not missed at the UMNO assembly.

Despite the split in the ruling party, the expanding opposition alliance and the widening international spillover of the 1MDB scandal, Prime Minister Najib seems secure for now. Such is the power of incumbency. In fact, the UMNO assembly further entrenched the positions of Mr Najib and Mr Zahid with the passing of a resolution to have no contests for their posts when UMNO’s party elections are held possibly next year.



Mother of All Elections 2.0

The second view is that Mr Najib is actually on much shakier ground than he would admit, and that the coming general election will indeed be a “do-or-die” electoral battle whose outcome will be critical for his survival. “It is not just another general election,” said Mr Najib. If BN wins again, it could well mean the breakup of the PH opposition, given its current state of fragility; while Mr Najib will be confirmed as the most wily sitting prime minister since Dr Mahathir.

But if for some reason, voters grow tired of all the political shenanigans but chose to remain silent until they decide to vote against UMNO and BN, then Mr Najib will not only be out of power; he could end up in deep trouble. The stakes are indeed very high for him.

While UMNO leaders have touted the criticality of winning back the two-thirds majority, the reality is that many people are sceptical this will happen. Even UMNO leaders talked about this super-majority goal with some guard. Mr Zahid said it is not enough to rely on the strengths of UMNO and BN alone. Mr Najib spoke about the critical need to win over the third group of “persuadable voters” that is “significant to BN” – the “fence sitters”. In other words, UMNO is really not sure of a win this time. Indeed, rarely has Mr Najib talked about “the risk of UMNO and BN losing, and losing everything”.



What If the Opposition Wins?

There are at least two key sources of disgruntlement against the UMNO-led ruling coalition: rising cost of living which some UMNO leaders are in denial of; and issues of ethics and governance. There are undercurrents of unhappiness among the political and business elites as well as the ordinary public who may well form a significant group of fence-sitters.

Overall, many Malaysians at this point are rather resigned to more of the same. They are so used to the political longevity and entrenched power of UMNO, and by extension BN, that they might not want to rock the boat. They may want the opposition to take over but are afraid of the unknown. Many therefore might either spoil their vote, or stay at home and not face an excruciating dilemma at the ballot box.

This may not be the best outcome for Malaysian politics. But for those who are deeply troubled by what they perceive as the growing rot within the system, a regime change would not be as scary as it seems. In other words, they may be prepared to try out a new government and give it a chance to do things differently. The role of an effective, viable and respected opposition is crucial in this regard.

If the alternative government delivers, it will be voted back to power. If it fails, voters can bring UMNO and BN back to rule. A stint out of power may not be bad for UMNO’s soul; it could lead to serious introspection and much needed rejuvenation.

This model of politics is not new. There have been long-serving political parties that have been voted out but came back to power better. Japan’s LDP is one example. Other countries where long-serving parties have been dethroned but play influential oppositionist roles instead are Indonesia’s Golkar, Taiwan’s Koumintang and India’s Congress. Is this the crossroads that Mr Najib is talking about? - Yang Razali Kassim,eurasiareview 

The Strength Of The Pakatan Harapan

Last nite I was hosted for dinner and an interesting discussion by 11 of my seniors from the Anglo Chinese School in Ipoh. These were folks who had completed their Form Five in 1958, 1963 and so on. At that time there was no SPM or MCE. They called it the School Certificate.  Thank you to my Elders.

One of the questions they asked me was 'How strong is the Pakatan Harapan?'  

 If you have watched the latest remake of Jungle Book (the animation) the wolves repeat their oath, 'The strength of the wolf is the pack and the strength of the pack is the wolf.'

The second part of this statement  "the strength of the pack is the wolf"  seems to apply to the Pakatan Harapan. The strength of the PH lies in two parts. The first is the individual strengths of the component parties namely the Parti Pribumi Bersatu, the DAP, Parti Amanah and the PKR. 

No matter whether it rains or shines, each one of these components have their undying supporters and voters which will translate to votes and seats to be won.

The second part of the Pakatan Harapan's strength 9which is a bonus) is Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed.   Dr Mahathir provides the focus and the glue to reach Putrajaya. 

Here is some info about the two previous elections... 

                                               BN                                          PAKATAN 

2008                                  140 seats, 51%                           82 seats, 48%
2013                                  133 seats (-7)                              89 seats (+7)
Popular vote                       5,237,699                                  5,623,984
%                                        47.4 % (-4%)                            51.0% (+3%) 

Well,  since Tan Sri Muhyiddin, Mukriz and a few other leaders are no more in the BN, the BN's seat count is even less.

There are 222 Parliamentary seats, so you need 111 + 1 = 112 seats to form the federal government. 

165 Parliamentary seats are on the Peninsula and 57 are in Sarawak and Sabah. The Pakatan Harapan need only win 20 more seats to topple the BN. 

Talk is that... 
- DAP will be contesting 40 Parliamentary seats in the Peninsula.
- Parti Bersatu will be contesting 55 seats.
- The PKR will be contesting 50 seats in the Peninsula.  
- Parti Amanah may contest  20 seats  

Both DAP (and the PKR) will contest some Parliamentary seats in Sabah and Sarawak.

The DAP holds 31 Parliamentary seats in the Peninsula, 5 seats in Sarawak and 2 more in Sabah (total of 38). This means the DAP is contesting an extra NINE seats in the Peninsula. The DAP may also contest more than the SEVEN seats they already have in Sarawak and Sabah.

Since time is short and resources are limited some observers suggest that Pakatan deploy its resources carefully for maximum effect.

It is suggested that Mukriz  Mahathir focus extra efforts to win all the Parliamentary and State seats in Kedah for the Pakatan. Similarly Tan Sri Muhyiddin should focus extra efforts on securing Johor.

Tun Dr Mahathir has been doing a great job among the  Felda areas  and also as chief campaigner in other constituencies throughout the Peninsula. 

Parti Amanah seems to be strongest in Kelantan and has good potential to rout PAS and UMNO from some of the seats.  Husam in Kelantan and his Amanah cohorts should focus heavily on Kelantan.

As the incumbent State government in Selangor, PKR should work extra hard to win even more Parliamentary and State seats in Selangor for  Pakatan candidates. The same applies for the DAP in Penang. 

There are some internal issues in the PKR.   The party has three power centres namely the Anwar Ibrahim family, Azmin and his Selangor group and finally  Rafizi Ramli and his technical boys.  

However the ground support for the PKR is still intact and does not seem to have any adverse effect on the party's popularity.

The Pakatan need only win an extra 20 Parliamentary seats to defeat the BN.

Lets say... 
- Parti Bersatu wins a minimum 10 seats. 
- DAP wins THREE extra seats. 
- PKR wins THREE extra seats. 
- Amanah wins FOUR seats. 
Its game over for the BN.

We are not including Parti Warisan in Sabah.  Or the Pakatan Harapan's   Dayak friends in Sarawak.  Its Game Over for the BN. - ostb


Parlimen belum bubar, 
BN dah mula pamer poster melalui papan tanda digital di sekitar KL. 
Ini salah dari segi akta Pilihanraya. SPR tidur.




cheers.

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