Dr Juanda Jaya bertanding di Permatang Pauh...

Pengumuman calon PAS Perlis pagi tadi menimbulkan tanda tanya berhubung kedudukan Mufti Perlis Dr Juanda Jaya yang sebelum ini dikatakan akan bertanding kerusi PKR di Parlimen Kangar.

Mufti kelahiran Sarawak itu sebelum ini difahamkan sudah bersetuju bertanding menentang BN dan melepaskan jawatan lantikan istana yang dipegangnya sejak hujung Januari 2009.

Pakatan cuba mengetengahkan Dr Juanda bagi bergandingan dengan tokoh agama popular PAS Datuk Dr Haron Din (kiri) yang akan bertanding di kerusi tradisinya di Arau, bagi merobek negeri kubu kuat BN.

Dengan pengumuman itu, Dr Juanda mungkin sukar mendapat tempat di negeri Indera Kayangan dan mungkin beralih ke sebuah lagi kerusi yang dikatakan diintainya di Sarawak.

Dalam pengumuman oleh Pesuruhjaya PAS Perlis Hashim Jasin pagi tadi, parti Islam itu akan bertanding di kesemua tiga kerusi Parlimen di Perlis berbanding dua sebelum ini.

Ia antara perubahan yang dilaksanakan dalam pembahagian kerusi Pakatan Perlis yang mengambil risiko tidak mengekalkan status quo seperti dalam pilihan raya umum lalu.

Bagi kerusi DUN pula, PAS sebelum ini bertanding di 12 kerusi Dewan Undangan Negeri (DUN) dan PKR di tiga kerusi. Bagaimanapun, pilihan raya kali ini akan menyaksikan parti Islam itu hanya bertanding di lapan kerusi dengan PKR sebanyak lima.

Sumber PKR dakwa tak muktamad

DAP pula diberikan dua kerusi, cubaan kali pertama mereka bertanding di negeri Utara semenanjung itu.

Hashim hari ini mengumumkan barisan calonnya seperti berikut: Ketua Urusan Ulama PAS Padang Besar Azamhari Mohamood (Padang Besar), Ahli Jawatankuasa PAS Kangar Baharuddin Ahmad (Kangar) dan Dr Haron (Arau).

Bagi kerusi DUN pula, Ahli Jawatankuasa Pusat PAS Mohd Anuar Tahir akan bertanding di Santan; Timbalan Yang Dipertua PAS Padang Besar, Wan Kharizal Wan Khazim (Beseri), Setiausaha Pilihan Raya Abd Jamil Kamis (Bintong), Setiausaha Perhubungan Ya'akub Abu Seman (Kayang), Ketua Dewan Ulama Idris Yaacob (Pauh), peguam Zulmi Sabri (Guar Sanji), Timbalan Pesuruhjaya 3 Rus'sele Eizan ( Simpang Empat) dan Mohd Shukri Ramli (Sanglang).

Hashim menjelaskan, penetapan kerusi itu telah lama dibuat pada 15 Julai 2011 setelah dipersetujui sebulat suara dalam Majlis Pakatan Rakyat Negeri Perlis.

 

Bagaimanapun, sumber PKR memberitahu Malaysiakini, pembahagian kerusi negeri di Utara semenanjung itu masih belum diputuskan.

Perkara itu difahamkan akan menjadi salah satu agenda penting dalam mesyuarat Majlis Pimpinan Pakatan di Kuala Lumpur esok.

Dalam pilihan raya umum lalu, PAS menang di DUN Sanglang dan Simpang Empat sahaja.

Dr Juanda (gambar atas, berbaju hitam) ketika dihubungi Malaysiakini hari ini bagaimanapun enggan mengulas berhubung perkara itu dan mahu menunggu masa yang sesuai terlebih dahulu.~ Malaysiakini

On paper, Pakatan should retain Kedah...

If one were to solely look at the margin of victory in seats won by Kedah Pakatan Rakyat at the 2008 general election, the prospects of the coalition notching up another win in the state is more than assured - it has 16 rather safe seats, and will need to secure another three more to retain power.

Clearly, on paper at least, Pakatan only needs to maintain the status quo of its GE12 haul - 22 seats out of the 36 in Kedah - to pull through.

And despite reports of internal riff within Kedah Pakatan, with charges of sabotage abounding, the opposition coalition nevertheless appears stronger than its BN rival, which is also facing similar internal strife.
While friction between PAS state chief and Menteri Besar Azizan Abdul Razak (left) and his deputy, Phahrolrazi Zawawi, who is also a state cabinet member, could weaken Pakatan's hold, it is still not easy for BN to wrest back Kedah.

Kedah BN too is being hit by factional feuds, with some seeking to push former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad's son, Mukhriz, to be the new menteri besar should BN win this northern state.

While both sides have denied these reports of internal divisions, the reality on the ground is that such reports are causing dissent among the ranks of the grassroots in the two contending coalitions.

Thirteen of the 16 ‘safe seats' for Pakatan were won with sizable majorities - Bukit Selambau (PKR - majority 12,632 votes), Lunas (PKR - 10,323), Tokai (PAS - 6,578), Kuala Ketil (PAS - 4,880), Anak Bukit (PAS - 3,806), Sidam (PKR - 3,618), Merbau Pulas (PAS - 3,576), Bukit Pinang (PAS - 3,399), Sungai Limau (PAS - 3,212), Pengkalan Kundor (PAS - 3,122), Alor Mengkudu (PAS - 2,247), Kupang (PAS - 2,094) and Bandar Baharu (PAS -1,849).

The other three seats that Pakatan won with below 1,500-vote majorities are Kubang Rotan (PAS - 1,387), Bakar Arang (PKR - 1,330) and Kulim (PKR - 1,244).

On the BN's side, it appears entrenched in the eight state seats that it had won with significant majorities in 2008.

Of these, six are traditional Umno strongholds: Bukit Kayu Hitam (Umno - 6,995), Kuah (Umno - 3,324), Sungai Tiang (Umno - 3,006), Pedu (Umno-2,733), Jitra (Umno - 2,258) and Guar Cempedak (Umno - 1,759).

The other two, won with 1,000-plus vote majorities, are Gurun (MCA - 1,554) and Ayer Hangat (Umno - 1,135).

This means BN needs another 11 seats to win back Malaysia's rice bowl.

The remaining 12 seats - six with BN and six with Pakatan - are marginal seats won with majorities of below 1,000 votes, some of them won with less than 500 votes.

The six marginal seats Pakatan wrested from the BN in 2008 are Kota Darulaman (DAP - majority 804 votes), Ayer Hitam (PAS - 506), Pantai Merdeka (PAS - 503), Bukit Lada (PAS - 208), Jeneri (PAS - 167), and Tanjong Dawai (PAS - 79).

Of the six seats the BN holds, Gerakan captured Derga with a tissue-thin margin of 163 votes, Belantik (Umno - 252), Bakar Bata (Umno - 358), Kota Siputeh (Umno - 495), Kuala Nerang (Umno - 805) and Bayu (Umno - 984).
Candidate selections 'problematic'

Despite this, BN is still confident of pulling a surprise in the coming election. Umno, for one, believes that the issues that it has stirred up in the state may dent support for Pakatan, especially among PAS members involved in the Azizan-Phalrolrazi squabble.

Phahrolrazi (left in photo), who harboured hopes of replacing the ailing Azizan as MB, and Ismail are the two state executive council members who had initially refused to take their oaths of office after being reappointed to their portfolios early last year.

There is talk that the efforts are being made to replace Alor Setar PAS head Dr Ismail Salleh (right in photo) in his Alor Mengkudu seat with state PAS Youth chief Ahmad Yahya.

This was further magnified by trouble in the selection of candidates for several state seats in what some reports say reflect a major shake-up in the state Pakatan line-up that is the take place soon.

It is said that conflicts are still prevalent in the state seats of Tokai and Sungai Tiang, within the Pendang parliamentary constituency, as well as in Jeneri and Belantek, supposedly because of grassroots leaders are against the selected PAS candidates.

Political observers believe these problems, in the least, may impact the morale of the local machinery and party supporters in the PAS-contested areas, though it is not seen as a major impairment to the overall party electoral campaign in Kedah.
Umno's internal squabbles

The elephant in the room for the Kedah BN is who the "winnable candidates" are - a question that continues to plague the party and its machinery, especially among the Umno divisional leaders.

Candidate selection problems in Umno in 2008 were said to have led to the sabotage of BN candidates, a bitter lesson that saw the coalition lost its control of Kedah.

More serious is the dispute as who the menteri besar will be if BN were to retake its former stronghold. Political observers believe this issue will persist, despite Mukhriz repeatedly denying that he is eyeing the MB's post.

Talk of Mukhriz (right) as the next MB has upset state Umno chief Ahmad Bashah Md Hanipah and his supporters, especially since Ahmad Bashah is more senior than Mukhriz and has been seen as the first in the line of succession for the post.

While pressure from the national party leadership may see Ahmad Bashah bowing to a decision to choose Mukhriz over him, his supporters may not be so easily won over.

As long as talk of Mukhriz's acceptance as MB-designate by the top Umno leadership continues to hang in the air, the BN's performance in the state, come GE13, will remain questionable, observers say.

Still, Pakatan leaders will see a serious challenge from the BN, especially since BN needs only an additional of 1,500 votes in each of the five marginal seats won by Pakatan in 2008 to give Kedah Pakatan a run for its money.-malaysiakini

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