Mungkinkah pilihanraya bakal berlangsung tahun ini? Adakah Najib akan menanti sehingga luput tempoh mandat Dewan Rakyat tahun depan? Adakah Pakatan Harapan betul-betul sanggup mengambil-alih kerajaan?
Saya menjangkakan pilihanraya akan berlangsung tahun ini. Lebih spesifik lagi, Parlimen akan dibubar dalam bulan November, dengan tempoh kempen mencecah awal Disember. Pilihanraya akan berlangsung sebelum bermula musim tengkujuh.
Berikut saya ketengahkan beberapa sebab dan alasan bagi menyokong bacaan politik ini.
Hutang IPIC
Hujah pertama berkait pembayaran hutang kepada IPIC berjumlah RM5.16 bilion (US$1.2 bilion) oleh Kerajaan Malaysia.
Kita semua sedia maklum tentang keputusan timbangtara di London antara syarikat International Petroleum Investment Company (IPIC) yang berpangkalan di Abu Dhabi dan syarikat pelaburan milik Kementerian Kewangan, 1MDB.
Bayaran berjumlah RM5.16 bilion tersebut telah dibahagi dua. Bayaran pertama sepatutnya dibuat pada 31 Julai lalu. Bayaran kedua pula, sebanyak RM2.58 bilion, perlu dilangsaikan pada akhir tahun ini.
Bayaran pertama tidak menepati waktu sehinggakan IPIC memberi tempoh lanjutan sehingga hujung Ogos, setelah terlebih dahulu memberi tempoh lima hari daripada tarikh luput asal 31 Julai.
Menurut 1MDB, kelewatan bayaran tersebut adalah kerana “1MDB masih lagi menunggu dana yang sepatutnya diterima pada Julai 2017. Berikutan keperluan mendapatkan kelulusan kawal selia tambahan (‘additional regulatory approvals’), penerimaan dana itu ditangguhkan kepada Ogos, 2017.”
Tiga hari selepas kerajaan Abu Dhabi memberikan tempoh lanjutan sehingga hujung Ogos, 1MDB membayar IPIC sebanyak US$350 juta pada 11 Ogos.
Kebetulan, pada 9 Ogos, projek East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) dilancarkan di Kuantan. Ini mencetuskan spekulasi oleh ramai pihak bahawa ‘dana yang sepatutnya diterima pada Julai 2017’ seperti yang dinyatakan 1MDB di atas, datang daripada cukong-cukong ECRL, dari Tanah Besar China.
Sekiranya benar, maka pastinya cukong-cukong yang sama akan menyalurkan baki yang perlu dibayar 1MDB pada Disember nanti. Ia akan perlu membayar, jika ia tidak mahu pelaburan ECRL hangus begitu sahaja. Namun cukong-cukong ini juga pastinya memerlukan jaminan bahawa Perdana Menteri Datuk Seri Najib Razak, kekal berada di takhta Putrajaya.
Najib Razak mesti mengadakan pilihanraya sebelum cukong ECRL boleh membantu melangsaikan bayaran kedua IPIC Disember nanti. Najib Razak perlu kekal sebagai Perdana Menteri, kerana projek ECRL pastinya akan dibakulsampahkan sekiranya kerajaan bertukar tangan.
Pertemuan dengan Trump
Hujah kedua adalah berkaitan pertemuan Najib Razak dengan presiden berkulit jingga pertama Amerika Syarikat, Donald Trump, satu dua hari lagi.
Tidak susah untuk kita meneka tujuan pertemuan Najib dan Trump. Secara geo-politiknya, ada banyak jangkaan dan teori yang boleh kita layan. Tetapi dari segi politik Malaysia, pertemuan Najib dan Trump hanyalah untuk sekeping gambar.
Najib malah tidak perlu duduk minum kopi lama-lama, atau bermain golf seharian bersama sang presiden. Cukup sekadar keduanya bertemu di koridor Rumah Putih, berjabat tangan, senyum untuk beberapa saat, bertanya khabar; ‘Dah makan belum? Isteri sihat?’ dan kemudian pulang ke rumah masing-masing.
Sekeping gambar itu akan dijaja seluruh negara di muka depan akhbar-akhbar utama, dan lantas mencairkan kempen anti kleptokrasi parti-parti HARAPAN berbekalkan tindakan undang-undang Jabatan Kehakiman Amerika Syarikat terhadap aset-aset terkait dana 1MDB yang disonglap oleh anasir-anasir di negara itu untuk membeli kapal, kondo dan barang kemas serta intan berlian.
Najib Razak dan Trump malah tidak akan mengadakan sidang media pun, kerana Najib tidak akan berani berhadapan soalan wartawan Wall Street Journal, New York Times dan Washington Post.
Dalam negara sendiri bolehlah beliau mengelak soalan media. Wartawan Amerika tidak boleh diugut-ugut dan digoyang. Mereka tidak peduli.
Operator politik Najib Razak hanya akan menayangkan rakaman pertemuan itu di semua saluran media dan berkata, ‘Lihatlah Perdana Menteri kita, tidak disentuh kerajaan Amerika. Ini membuktikan beliau tidak bersalah, dan dakwaan pembangkang tentang 1MDB dan DOJ itu semua fitnah belaka’.
Sentimen rakyat akan diukur kemudiannya, dan Najib Razak tidak akan teragak-agak untuk mengadakan pilihanraya sebaik sahaja beliau merasakan cukup yakin bahawa kempen HARAPAN dengan modal tindakan undang-undang DOJ itu sudah cair dan tidak ampuh lagi.
Hujah ketiga ialah longgarnya integriti organisasi HARAPAN.
Percakaran antara pimpinan parti-parti komponen HARAPAN, selain pergelutan dalam pembahagian kerusi serta ketidaktentuan nasib pendaftaran gabungan tersebut dan keadaan DAP yang masih bagai digantung tidak bertali oleh Jabatan Pendaftar Pertubuhan (ROS), adalah kombinasi yang cukup mantap untuk menggagalkan usaha HARAPAN menawan Putrajaya.
Najib Razak sendiri boleh sahaja bertindak menggagalkan pendaftaran HARAPAN sebagai sebuah gabungan politik. Kalau pun anasir-anasir jahat di dalam parti-parti DAP, PKR, Amanah dan PPBM tidak menggagalkannya sendiri.
Pertengkaran terbuka PKR misalnya, menggugat integriti struktur parti itu, dan seterusnya HARAPAN sendiri. Ketidaktentuan tentang PAS juga turut tidak membantu. Malah Najib Razak juga pastinya tahu bagaimana mencatur politik PAS dan HARAPAN bagi menggagalkan usaha parti-parti pembangkang.
Mengetahui titik lemah itu, dan menekannya secara strategik, adalah kekuatan yang dimiliki Najib Razak, dan pastinya boleh digunakan secara kalkulatif untuk menghancurkan sahaja lawannya.
Maka Najib tidak perlu resah, dan boleh mengadakan pilihanraya pada bila-bila masa beliau mahu.
Duit sudah turun
Hujah keempat adalah sedikit spekulatif. Namun khabar angin mengatakan bahawa Ketua-ketua Bahagian UMNO telah bertemu di ibu pejabat parti itu sebelum Aidiladha. Pertemuan itu tidak lain bertujuan untuk membahagi-bahagi peruntukan kempen pilihanraya.
Peruntukan tersebut pastinya tidak akan bertahan sehingga tahun hadapan. Perangai orang UMNO ni tahu saja lah.
Maka bacaan saya begitu. Satu-satunya peluang yang ada jika ia mahu dilakukan tahun ini ialah pada bulan November, sebaik sahaja semua jemaah haji pulang dari Mekah, sebaik sahaja musim peperiksaan selesai, sebaik sahaja umat Melayu di Pantai Timur dilanda tengkujuh dan menanti bantuan daripada kerajaan.
Najib Razak berada pada keadaan yang paling yakin dan kuat. Mustahil beliau tidak berani mengadakan pilihanraya secepat mungkin.
Kecuali lah kalau beliau yakin dan percaya bahawa meski beliau berani mengadakan pilihanraya, tidak ada jaminan bahawa beliau akan kekal sebagai Perdana Menteri. – Roketkini.com
Better dont wear pink diamond to U.S.
or DOJ will seize it...
For more than a year, Prime Minister Najib Razak of Malaysia has been under the cloud of a corruption investigation by the United States Department of Justice. On Tuesday, his scheduled visit to see President Trump at the White House may give him a chance to offset the political damage.
The Justice Department had concentrated for more than a year on seizing $1.7 billion in assets, including jewelry, real estate and Hollywood movie rights, that it says Mr. Najib’s family members and associates acquired with money diverted from a Malaysian government fund that he headed.
But in August, the department indicated it would shift its focus to a criminal investigation into the missing money, which is estimated to total more than $3.5 billion. Officials say much of it was laundered through United States financial institutions.
Now, Mr. Trump’s invitation to visit the White House comes at a perfect time for Mr. Najib and could give him a much-needed dose of legitimacy at home as a general election nears.
“It’s a big gift for him to have the White House invite him,” said Cynthia Gabriel, executive director of the Center to Combat Corruption and Cronyism in Kuala Lumpur, adding that she was “really flabbergasted” by the visit.
The two leaders played golf together a few years ago at Mr. Trump’s golf club in Bedminster, N.J. Mr. Trump signed a photo of the two of them together, “To my favorite prime minister.”
When they meet at the White House, they are expected to discuss the nuclear threat posed by North Korea’s ruler, Kim Jong-un, as well as China’s growing influence in Southeast Asia. Mr. Trump sorely needs an Asian ally who can help on both fronts.
For Mr. Najib, a White House handshake will show voters back home that he can set foot on American soil without being jailed, analysts and opposition members said.
“He can say, ‘I am not wanted in the United States and I can go there without being arrested,’” said Tony Pua, a member of Parliament and a critic of Mr. Najib.
Simply avoiding arrest on a United States visit might seem a low bar for a world leader.
But in Malaysia, the Justice Department investigation has undermined Mr. Najib’s assertions that nearly $681 million deposited in his personal bank accounts was a gift from an unnamed Saudi donor.
The Justice Department said last year that the source of $731 million in Mr. Najib’s accounts was actually the Malaysian government fund.
Mr. Najib has said that he committed no wrongdoing. His office declined to comment for this article.
“From a pure public relations point of view, it’s a meeting the White House should avoid,” said Donald Greenlees, an authority on Southeast Asia with Australian National University. “Even a photo op with Kim Jong-un would be better.”
Among those highlighted in the assets seizure cases are Mr. Najib, who is identified in court documents as “Malaysian Official 1”; his wife, Rosmah Mansor, who is renowned for her foreign shopping excursions; and his stepson, Riza Aziz, whose company, Red Granite Pictures, produced “The Wolf of Wall Street” and other films.
In the United States, Ms. Mansor may find it best not to wear jewelry that the Justice Department wants to seize, including her $27.3 million necklace with a 22-carat, pink diamond pendant, or the 27 gold necklaces and bracelets that she acquired in Los Angeles for $1.3 million.
Also caught up in the scandal are the actor Leonardo DiCaprio, who received more than $12 million in artwork, and the model Miranda Kerr, who received more than $8 million in diamond jewelry. They received the items as gifts from Jho Low, a friend of Mr. Aziz who played a key role in establishing the Malaysian fund.
The department says the money used to acquire the property and luxury goods was diverted from One Malaysia Development Berhad, the investment fund that Mr. Najib headed.
Last month, the Justice Department filed a motion to stay the forfeiture cases so that they would not have “an adverse effect on the government’s ability to conduct the related criminal investigation.” A hearing is scheduled for Sept. 18 in Los Angeles.
While Mr. Najib might wish for Mr. Trump to halt the Justice Department investigation, that would seem unlikely given the department’s independence. After all, Mr. Trump has been unable to stop an investigation into Russian election meddling that is headed by Robert S. Mueller III.
“This is a meeting of two leaders who both have legal problems, so it is bound to raise eyebrows,” said Wan Saiful Wan Jan, chief executive of the Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs in Kuala Lumpur. “If they have a one-on-one meeting, no one really knows what transpires in that session.”
Mr. Najib is the latest in a growing line of world leaders to receive invitations from Mr. Trump, including President Abel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt and President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines, who exert harsh authoritarian control over their countries.
Both the Malaysian leader and Mr. Trump have removed top officials from their roles, but Mr. Najib has also taken much more aggressive steps to protect his hold on power.
In 2015, Mr. Najib fired Malaysia’s attorney general to stop an investigation into the theft of government funds, and named a new one who quickly cleared Mr. Najib of any wrongdoing.
The opposition leader, Anwar Ibrahim, is serving a five-year sentence for sodomy in what critics and rights advocates say is a politically motivated case.
When members of his own party criticized Mr. Najib, he removed them from their posts.
His government has blocked unfriendly news outlets and charged a political cartoonist, Zulkiflee Anwar Ulhaque, with nine counts of sedition. Mr. Zulkiflee, known as Zunar, often depicts Mr. Najib as the “Man of Steal” and his wife, Rosmah, with a giant diamond ring. He faces up to 43 years in prison.
Mr. Pua, the member of Parliament, was sued by Mr. Najib for defamation and is now under a court injunction limiting what he can say about the prime minister.
Mahathir Mohamad, 92, who served for 22 years as prime minister and is now a leader of the opposition, said Malaysia has turned into a “dictatorship” under Mr. Najib where the rule of law is no longer enforced.
Mr. Najib controls the media and nearly every aspect of government, he said, and critics are arrested and detained without due process.
But Mr. Najib’s visit to the White House will not give him the legitimacy he seeks because of Mr. Trump’s own standing, said Mr. Mahathir, who was seen as authoritarian when he was in power.
“I would be very worried if he was making a visit to a very highly respected president of the United States,” he said. “But Trump is not a highly respected president, even in the United States. He himself is under investigation and he has been very erratic.”
Mr. Mahathir added: “Whether he supports Najib or not, he is not going to make much of an impact. If he says Najib is a great leader, people will say, ‘Well, that’s Trump. We don’t take him seriously.’” – New York Times
Dedahkan kos sebenar lawatan Najib ke White House...
Sapa yang lakukan ini gua tabik pasai dia menolong
selamatkan pemandu2 dirompak penyanggak2 UMNO...
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