tumpang sekole...?: Kalu solo, PAS akan hilang separuh dari kerusi...

Bagi memahami bagaimana sukarnya untuk PAS mengulangi prestasi cemerlangnya di Selangor pada Pilihan Raya Umum (PRU) ke-13 jika ia berjuang sendirian, Sri Serdang menjadi contoh terbaik.

Pada 2008, Mohamad Satim Diman daripada Barisan Nasional (BN) menewaskan calon PAS, Ahamad Idzham Ahmad sebanyak 45 undi di kawasan hampir 50,000 pengundi.

Lima tahun kemudian, ia keadaan sebaliknya berlaku apabila pendatang baru PAS Noor Hanim Ismail memenangi kerusi itu dengan majoriti 16,251. Sri Serdang adalah kerusi campuran – 46% Melayu, 36% Cina dan 16% India.

Jika PAS meneruskan rancangannya bertanding pada PRU14 sendirian, orang bukan Melayu, yang menyokong parti itu kerana ia sebahagian daripada Pakatan Rakyat, pasti akan meninggalkan parti Islam itu.

Sri Serdang dan sebahagian besar kerusi lain di negeri paling kaya di Malaysia akan hilang.

Penganalisis politik dan peninjau pendapat awam berkata jika PAS bertanding pada pilihan raya akan datang di bawah panji-panjinya sendiri dan terdapat lebih banyak pertandingan tiga penjuru, PAS akan menjadi pihak paling rugi.

Dr Prof Mohammad Redzuan Othman berkata, aritmetik mudah menunjukkan PAS akan mengalami lebih banyak kekalahan jika mereka meninggalkan pakatan pembangkang di Selangor pada pilihan raya akan datang.

"Di atas kertas, dengan sentimen anti-BN masih kuat di Selangor, yang PAS pembangkang tolak masih perlu diguna pakai.

"Pembangkang hanya akan memperoleh majoriti lebih kecil dalam kerajaan. Saya menjangkakan DAP dan PKR mengekalkan 14 kerusi mereka tetapi PAS akan mengalami penurunan kepada separuh.

"Jika terdapat perlawanan 3 penjuru, penyumbang terbesar adalah BN dengan kira-kira 20 kerusi. Tetapi pembangkang masih akan dapat mempertahankan Selangor," kata timbalan pengerusi Institut Darul Ehsan itu.

Redzuan berkata PAS akan berisiko di kerusi campuran jika ia meninggalkan pakatan pembangkang.

Kelemahan PAS

Daripada 13 kerusi yang dipegang PAS di Selangor, hanya dua "majoriti kuat Melayu". Selebihnya terdiri tiga majoriti Melayu, tujuh "majoriti lemah Melayu " dan satu kerusi campuran.

Pakar sains politik dan Felo Institut Pulau Pinang Dr Wong Chin Huat mentakrifkan kerusi kuat Melayu sebagai kawasan pengundi Melayu lebih daripada 66% manakala lemah adalah lebih sedikit daripada 50%.

"Jika ada majoriti etnik yang kuat dalam mana-mana satu kerusi, terdapat kecenderungan undi terbahagi dua di antara BN dan pembangkang. Ia memberi peluang kepada minoriti menentukan siapa yang akan memenangi kerusi itu,” kata Wong.

"Jika PAS tidak bersama pembangkang dalam PRU14, kaum lain mempunyai sebab yang sangat sedikit untuk menyokong mereka. Ia menjadi sesuatu yang sukar untuk menangani kehilangan undi bukan Melayu," kata Wong kepada The Malaysian Insight.

Jadi mengapa PAS meneruskan pendirian tentang memutuskan hubungan dengan PKR, terutama di Selangor di mana kerajaan dan exco negeri memberinya akses kepada sumber, mengawal masjid dan membiayai program sendiri?

Kerana empat tahun selepas prestasi baik di Selangor, ternyata pemimpin parti terlupa rekod mereka dahulu – sewaktu menentang kekuatan BN sendirian. - themalaysianinsight

PAS will lose half their seats

if they fight alone in Selangor...

To understand how difficult it will be for PAS to replicate their sterling performance in Selangor in the 13th general election if they go it alone, just take a drive to the Sri Serdang constituency.

In 2008, Barisan Nasional's Mohamad Satim Diman defeated PAS's Ahamad Idzham Ahmad by 45 votes in the almost 50,000 voter constituency.

Five years on, the tables were turned when PAS newcomer Noor Hanim Ismail won the seat by a 16,251 majority. S‎ri Serdang was a mixed seat – 46% Malay, 36% Chinese and 16% Indian.

If PAS go ahead with its plan to contest GE14 on its own, the non-Malays, who supported the party because it was part of the Pakatan Rakyat coalition, will most certainly desert the Islamic party.

Sri Serdang and a slew of other seats in Malaysia's richest state will be lost. Political analysts and pollsters say that if PAS contest GE14 under their own banner and there were more three-cornered fights, PAS would end up the biggest losers.‎

‎Dr Prof Mohammad Redzuan Othman ‎said ‎that simple arithmetic shows that PAS have more to lose if they abandon the opposition pact in Selangor in the next elections.

“On paper, with the anti-BN sentiments still strong in Selangor, an opposition minus PAS should still prevail.

“The opposition will just have a smaller majority in government. I expect DAP and PKR to keep their 14 seats but PAS will suffer a drop in half.

"And if there are three-cornered fights, the biggest benefactors will be BN with about 20 seats. But the opposition should still be able to keep Selangor,” said the Institute Darul Ehsan deputy chairman.

Redzuan said PAS will be particularly vulnerable in the mixed seats if they leave the opposition pact.

PAS’ vulnerability

Of the 13 seats that PAS currently hold in Selangor, only two are “strong Malay-majority” seats. The rest consists of three Malay-majorities, seven “weak Malay-majorities” and one mixed seat.‎

Political scientist and Penang Institute fellow Dr Wong Chin Huat defines strong-Malay seats as constituencies with more than 66% Malay voters while the weak ones as those marginally above 50%.

“If there is a strong ethnic majority in any one seat, there is a tendency for the votes to be split down the middle between BN and the opposition there. This leaves the minority the chance to decide who will win the seat,” said Wong.

“If PAS is not with the opposition during GE14, the other races have very little reason to back them. They will be hard pressed to make up for the loss of non-Malay votes,” Wong told The Malaysian Insight.

So why would PAS persist with all this posturing about breaking ties with PKR, especially in Selangor, where their position in the state government and state excos has given the Islamic party access to resources, control over mosques and funding for their own programmes?

Because four years after its best performance in Selangor, it appears that party leaders have forgotten their track record in the old days – when they went up against the might of BN alone. - Chan Kok Leong, themalaysianinsight

18 dilaporkan cedera...

Betoi kata PAS orang yang angkuh Allah bayaq tunai...

Masalah 1MDB belum selesai,

penyelesaian atas kertas saja...

Pihak berkuasa Abu Dhabi saman kerana 1MDB tidak bayar balik hutang.

Di bawah penyelesaian itu, 1MDB melalui kerajaan Malaysia akan bayar kerajaan Abu Dhabi AS$2.5 bilion (kira-kira RM11.25 bilion pada kadar tukaran hari ini) bagi melupuskan sebahagian hutang 1MDB.

Menurut laporan media antarabangsa, kedua-dua buah negara juga bersetuju untuk tidak menggunakan saluran undang-undang sebelum Disember 2020 dalam merundingkan pertikaian mengenai AS$3.5 bilion (kira-kira RM15.75 bilion) lagi hutang yang bersangkut-paut dengan dua bon lain yang dikeluarkan oleh 1MDB.

Penyelesaian itu digambarkan sebagai baik. Tapi apalah baiknya kena bayar balik hutang bilion ringgit dan pada masa yang sama berbilion hilang dalam kecurian.

Selesai atau tidak, beban hutang 1MDB tetap terpikul di atas bahu rakyat jelata dan pembayar cukai. Ini adalah kerana semua hutang dan tanggungan 1MDB telah dipindahkan kepada Kementerian Kewangan.

Bagi orang politik, terbabit dalam berita baik memberikan mereka keuntungan politik dan bagi ahli perniagaan, berita baik mungkin menyebabkan harga saham mereka naik.

Jadi adalah kebiasaan bagi mereka tumpang sekaki. Kalau boleh mereka akan mengaku terlibat membawa perkhabaran baik itu. Paling-paling busuk pun mereka akan mengalu-alukannya.

Menteri Sendiri Tak Percaya

Tapi apabila Menteri Kewangan Kedua, Johari Abdul Ghani, sendiri menafikan penglibatan dengan “penyelesaian” itu, jelaslah ia bukan penyelesaian sebenar atau meyakinkan apatah lagi menguntungkan negara.

Kalau ia penyelesaian sebenar dan diyakini, orang politik macam Johari tentulah akan cuba tumpang sekaki.

Sebaliknya, dia berkata dia tidak terlibat dengan penyelesaian itu sambil menambah bahawa ia adalah kerja 1MDB dan Jabatan Perdana Menteri.

Dia sekadar berkata angka-angka yang dia tengok mengenai penyelesaian itu meyakinkan. Satu hujah yang selamat sekadar melepas batuk di tangga.

Mudah cakap, saya kata macam ini. Jentera propaganda kerajaan dan panglima siber A9 Umno boleh berbohong kepada sesetengah orang kampung, orang Felda dan orang PPRT tetapi mereka tidak boleh kelentong orang dalam kelas Johari.

Busuk-busuk pun Johari ada pengalaman korporat. Saya kenal dia sejak dia bekerja dengan anak syarikat Kumpulan New Straits Times Press (M) Berhad sehinggalah dia jadi Pengarah Urusan CI Holdings Berhad. Jadi dia tahu hal korporat dan hutang-piutang.

Maaflah kalau saya terlepas pandang. Saya tidak terbaca berita orang politik dan korporat mengalu-alukan berita penyelesaian itu, kecuali sekarat dua.

Hatta panglima A9 Umno yang baru saja diarah “attack attack attack attack” oleh Najib pun nampaknya tidak berapa ghairah menguar-uarkan penyelesaian ini.

Adakah mereka tidak faham, tidak yakin, tidak menghargai sumbangan JPM atau mereka tidak mahu terus terpalit dengan najis 1MDB? Boleh jadi.

Masalah 1MDB Belum Selesai

Hutang 1MDB sebanyak RM11.25 bilion yang setuju dibayar kepada Abu Dhabi dengan bantuan kerajaan itu hanyalah sebahagian daripada hutangnya yang menggunung.

Menurut laporan Jawatankuasa Kira-kira Wang Negara Parlimen (PAC), hutang 1MDB pada bulan Januari 2016 berjumlah RM50 bilion dan bukan lagi RM42 bilion seperti yang didakwa oleh Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

Kerajaan kata, hutang 1MDB kepada bank sudah selesai. Mungkin benar. Tapi bukan kerana 1MDB ada banyak duit, sebaliknya kerana hutang dan tanggungannya diambil alih oleh kerajaan.

Bila jadi hutang negara, rakyat jelata dan pembayar cukai lah yang kena tanggung. Kita dan anak cucu kitalah yang kena bayar.

Itu baru hutang 1MDB. Tak kira lagi hutang kerajaan yang lain yang naik melambung di bawah kelolaan Najib sebagai Menteri Kewangan.

Yang terbaru laporan Bank Negara mengatakan hutang luar negara kita telah naik kepada RM908.7 bilion pada suku keempat tahun lalu, iaitu paras paling tinggi dalam masa hampir 20 tahun.

Majoriti pengamal media massa arus perdana prokerajaan dan panglima A9 mungkin tidak faham ekonomi untuk mengetahui bahawa apa yang berlalu sekarang adalah kesan lingkaran ganas (vicious cycle) yang berpunca daripada hutang negara yang tinggi, ekonomi yang lembap, skandal 1MDB, rasuah dan kurang kepercayaan kepada kerajaan dan banyak lagi faktor-faktor negatif.

Semua petunjuk utama ekonomi merudum. Nilai ringgit jatuh, pengangguran meningkat kepada lebih setengah juta orang, kira-kira 200,000 graduan tidak ada kerja, inflasi naik ke paras paling tinggi dalam masa lapan tahun (sama dengan tempoh Najib jadi PM), hutang kerajaan melambung ke tahap paling tinggi dalam sejarah dan kewangan kerajaan lemah.

Senarai bencana ekonomi dan sosial ini terterusan. Lagi rendah peringkatnya, lagi parah masalahnya. Sampai ada menteri kelas ayam yang cadangkan pesakit pulangkan ubat yang tidak habis dimakan.

Image result for Kerana Najib Sayang Jho Low

Kerana Najib Sayang Jho Low

Yang sangat tidak adil dan mendukacitakan adalah tujuan tersirat pemindahan hutang dan tanggungan 1MDB kepada kerajaan melalui Kementerian Kewangan kerana mahu menyelamatkan Jho Low dan menutup mulut bekas-bekas pegawai 1MDB.

Kalau Jho Low ditangkap dan disiasat, habislah Najib dan isi rumahnya.

Natijahnya, selagi Najib dan Barisan Nasional berkuasa, bolehlah mereka timbus bangkai gajah Tok Mia 1MDB dan SRC International Sdn Bhd.

Mereka boleh guna berbagai-bagai tindak-tanduk korporat, pentadbiran, kehakiman dan kepolisan untuk menutup bangkai 1MDB.

Tetapi seandainya kerajaan baru mengambil alih, bangkai itu boleh digali semula. Kalau sudah reput pun boleh dibangkitkan semula kerana DNA 1MDB sudah bertaburan di merata dunia. - a.kadir jasin

Countries Investigating 1MDB Scandal - Bloomberg

No Dividends From Bank Rakyat So Far.

What Is Going On...

Recall a few weeks back I blogged that Bank Rakyat has not yet declared any dividends (for FYE 2016??) Well it is now 28th April 2017 and still no dividends have been declared by Bank Rakyat.

Considering that Bank Rakyat has been consistently declaring DOUBLE DIGIT dividends for so many years, obviously something is not very right in Bank Rakyat.

A friend of mine (a Dato and a CEO of a GLC) sent me this sms :

"Bank Rakyat is still silent about 2016 dividends. You blogged about this earlier I believe. Its already almost May. Last year they paid out at end March. Year 2016 closed four months ago! Apa cerita? Ada skandal ke?"

I also checked with the other person who first warned me about Bank Rakyat not paying dividends. He also said, "Memang tak ada".

So Bank Rakyat, sila jawab?
Ada skandal ke?
Pasai apa belum ada dividen lagi?
Duit pi mana?

And please declare real dividends ok.
Kita tak boleh ikut style Ponzi Scheme.
Atau Pak Man Thelo.

Media people - call Bank Rakyat lah.
Ask them what is going on.
Why no dividends so far?
Why the big delay? This is end April already.
What is going on?

Media people - also call Khazanah Nasional and Malaysian Airport Holdings Bhd.

Talk is they have made big losses in their airport operations in Turkey. They are using their "monopoly" profits in Malaysia to cover the huge losses suffered in their Turkey operations.

Remember Sime Darby losing about RM800 million in Qatar or somewhere not too long ago?

Tiap kali depa pi niaga ke negeri padang pasir, depa mesti kena liwat habis.

In the long run, they all get liwatted. - ostb

Breaching The Trust...

One of the two is a retired army general with nearly 40 years of unblemished service to King and Country. No one would have thought that a former Chief of Armed Forces would one day be dragged to court, like a common criminal, to be tried for grand larceny. And being a former member of this elite club, I am ashamed of being one.

Gen Tan Sri Abdul Aziz Zainal (Rtd), chairman of Bank Rakyat, was my junior at the Royal Military College, Sungei Besi. And like all juniors he suffered some hard knocks from the seniors. We all underwent such orientation (ragging) in those heydays when telecommunications were still rudimentary.

It was an accepted norm then that the moment you entered the gated grounds of the Royal Military College, Sungei Besi, your life and well-being were being entrusted to your seniors. They were the ones who would determine your future. We took this in our stride. No one complained or made a hue and cry over it, as would be the case today.

To be accepted as a member of the armed forces was something we would give an arm and a leg for then. It was a distinction we cherished in spite of the ignominy of being “bullied” for almost a year. We endured the hardships in order to be part and parcel of an august club. Notwithstanding that, we harboured no grudges against our seniors and are still best of friends till today.

It is unkind of me to discuss the character of an accused in an upcoming CBT trial, as it is sub judice (under judgment of a court of law). I am not prejudging an accused person before his trial. My doing so has nothing to do with the case, which will come up for mention at the Kuala Lumpur Sessions Court on Monday October 10. It has to do with the belief that being a commissioned officer of the army your behaviour should be impeccable and being charged with CBT casts a shadow on exemplary conduct of members of the Armed Forces.

Someone asked me would I not have done the same when a huge sum of money was at my disposal? RM 15 million is no small change. It can make or break a person. But there again, you are being entrusted with public funds. The money is not yours. It belongs to depositors and the bank. RM 15 million was earmarked for the publication of a coffee-table book on a national leader and the upgrading of the bank’s computing systems.

That leads me to the other question. Why RM15 million for two jobs that, in my calculation, would not cost more than RM4 million?

I have done coffee-table books before. The last one we did for a state agency cost them barely RM15, 000 for 200 copies. The cost of printing one book was RM75. The duo was tasked to print 20,000 copies and if RM75 is taken as a benchmark, it would cost only RM1, 500,000. Upgrading of the bank computing systems may take another RM2 million, at the very most, after all Bank Rakyat is not Maybank or Public Bank.

Aziz Zainal and Mustafha Abdul Razak, may have allowed greed to cloud their thoughts. Two simple jobs requiring an estimated RM3.5 million have been exaggerated over four times. Whatever their reasons are, the truth may or may not surface at the upcoming trial.

In the meantime, I hope my junior, Aziz Zainal, has the moral courage to own up to his mistakes if he has made them. Aziz, you are an officer and a gentleman. That was drummed into us at the Royal Military College. Just be one. Period.- Fathol Zaman Bukhari,Ipoh Echo