Mereka memberitahu The Malaysian Insider keputusan Pilihan Raya Kecil Teluk Intan berpunca daripada pengundi yang lebih tua yang tinggal di kawasan Parlimen ini yang mendapati rayuan dan janji Presiden Gerakan untuk mengadakan pembangunan dan penyelesaian kepada masalah mereka lebih praktikal, dan bukan calon muka baru DAP Dyana Sofya Mohd Daud.
Para penganalisis juga bersetuju bahawa bangsa calon tidak memainkan faktor dalam pilihan raya kecil ini, walaupun kekecohan berlaku kerana Dyana Sofya adalah calon Melayu daripada parti Cina dan bertanding di kawasan majoriti Cina.
"Pengundi muda tidak balik untuk mengundi dalam jumlah yang besar kerana analisis awal menunjukkan pengundi muda lebih memihak kepada calon DAP," kata ketua Merdeka Centre, Ibrahim Suffian kepada The Malaysian Insider.
"Pengundi warga tua di Teluk Intan mengundi dengan cara praktikal. Mah adalah seorang penduduk tempatan, mereka mengenali beliau sejak sekian lama, dia juga berkhidmat sebagai ahli Parlimen selama dua penggal. Itu serta janji bahawa beliau bakal dilantik sebagai menteri semuanya memihak kepada beliau,"katanya.
Mah berjanji melalui manifestonya untuk menyelesaikan isu-isu tempatan dan membangunkan Teluk Intan menjadi hab pelancongan dan industri asas tani.
Beliau adalah ahli Parlimen di situ selama dua penggal, namun kalah mulai Pilihan Raya Umum 2008.
Menteri BN yang berkempen untuk Mah turut mengingatkan penduduk Teluk Intan kawasan pilihan raya itu memerlukan seorang wakil BN jika mereka mahu melihat sebarang kemajuan.
Sebaliknya, kempen Dyana di Teluk Intan menyentuh sangat sedikit isu-isu tempatan, memihak kepada dasar-dasar dan idea negara yang akan diberi tumpuan sebagai seorang ahli Parlimen, seperti kos sara hidup yang meningkat, cukai barangan dan perkhidmatan, serta memperkasakan belia dan wanita.
Mah memenangi pilihan raya ini apabila mendapat 20,157 undi berbanding Dyana Sofya yang mendapat 19,919 undi, memberikannya majoriti tipis 238 undi.
Jumlah keluar mengundi rasmi pilihan raya Teluk Intan adalah 66.7% dengan 40,236 daripada 60,439 pemilih berdaftar yang keluar untuk membuang undi mereka. Pilihan raya umum sebelum ini menyaksikan 80.7% keluar mengundi.
Adalah dianggarkan bahawa 10% daripada 60,349 pengundi Teluk Intan hidup di luar kawasan pilihan raya ini, iaitu bersamaan kira-kira 6,000 pengundi yang secara umumnya pro-pembangkang.
Pada pilihan raya umum tahun lepas, calon DAP, mendiang Seah Leong Peng memenangi kerusi Teluk Intan dengan majoriti 7313 undi.
Ibrahim menambah bahawa calon DAP, Dyana Sofya gagal berkempen secara menyeluruh berdasarkan fakta beliau adalah seorang calon payung terjun yang menentang pemimpin veteran yang dilahirkan dan dibesarkan di Teluk Intan.
Kekurangan pengalaman dan ketidakbiasaan menjadi antara penyebab Dyana Sofya tidak menang, bukannya bangsa beliau, kata Ibrahim dengan sedih.
"Saya rasa apa yang datang kepada minda pengundi adalah bahawa dia tidak berpengalaman. Mereka mempunyai calon bukan Cina sebelum ini yang menang, jadi saya tidak fikir bangsa adalah satu perkara yang besar."
Mah mula-mula menjadi ahli Parlimen Teluk Intan selepas memenangi kerusi itu pada Pilihan Raya Umum 1999 dan 2004, sebelum tewas kepada M Manogaran tahun 2008 dengan majoriti 1,830 undi dan Seah pada tahun 2013.
Penganalisis politik Khoo Kay Peng berkata bahawa strategi DAP "gagal" kerana pengundi luar kawasan yang pro-pembangkang diberi gambaran bahawa kemenangan Dyana dalam tangan.
"Manifesto beliau diterima oleh generasi muda. Tetapi orang tua mahukan pembangunan," katanya.
"Tetapi DAP terlalu yakin, kempen dalam talian memaparkan bahawa dia adalah bintang, orang suka dia, orang beratur untuk mengambil gambar bersama beliau."
Khoo berkata pendekatan DAP sangat berbeza dengan Mah yang memberitahu pemberita walaupun sehingga hari mengundi, beliau bimbang dan merasakan pertempuran akan menjadi sukar.
"Oleh itu, pengundi luar kawasan yang akan mengundi untuk Dyana merasakan ia tidak perlu untuk berbuat demikian, dan itu adalah puncanya," kata Khoo kepada The Malaysian Insider.
Beliau menambah bahawa rasa kesungguhan untuk pulang dalam pilihan raya umum lalu tidak ada dalam pilihan raya ini kerana mereka tahu tidak akan ada sebarang perubahan kepada kerajaan Persekutuan walaupun mereka pulang untuk mengundi.
"Dia sepatutnya berkempen secara underdog, tetapi ia sudah dilakukan terlalu lewat. DAP hanya menyedari kemudian bahawa pengundi luar kawasan akan menentukan jika mereka menang. "
Beliau berkata penduduk tempatan Teluk Intan tidak akan kagum dengan manifesto Dyana kerana mereka belum lagi merasai kesan GST, jadi ia sukar bagi mereka untuk mengaitkannya.
Sebaliknya, apa yang berkaitan dengan mereka adalah apa yang Mah janjikan kepada mereka, jalan raya yang lebih baik, lebih banyak pekerjaan, status industri dan universiti baru.
"Akhirnya, mereka terpaksa memilih calon yang mampu membantu mereka. Mereka tidak akan mengundi seseorang berdasarkan cita-cita mahu memperkasakan belia dan wanita. Dan yang paling penting, Mah berjanji kemajuan untuk mereka."
Khoo juga menyalahkan Dyana kerana membuat terlalu banyak kesilapan sepanjang kempen, dan terlalu bergantung pada jentera parti, bukannya diri sendiri untuk memenangi Teluk Intan.
"Ketidaktentuan mengenai penglibatan ibunya dengan Perkasa merosakkan kredibiliti beliau. DAP cuba untuk mengurangkannya, tetapi mereka pula terlalu melindunginya. Pada akhirnya, dia tidak menonjol sebagai calon, dan dia dilihat tidak boleh berdikari."
Beliau berkata faktor bangsa Melayu tidak besar kerana selaku pembangkang atau pengundi pertengahan akan mengundi berdasarkan parti dan janji-janji yang dia buat.
Professor James Chin dari Universiti Monash pula berkata dari segi bangsa, Dyana gagal untuk memenangi pengundi Melayu Teluk Intan, mereka masih bersama Umno.
"Tekaan saya adalah pengundi Melayu masih bersama Umno. Dan jika mereka begitu besar anda memerlukan sokongan Cina yang besar juga untuk menutupnya. Tetapi yang pasti pengundi luar kawasan tidak balik untuk mengundi. Sebab itulah keputusan begitu rapat.
"Usaha untuk mendapatkan undi Melayu melalui Dyana gagal," katanya kepada The Malaysian Insider, sambil menambah bahawa ini tidak mengejutkan, memandangkan Teluk Intan merupakan masyarakat semi-luar bandar.
Beliau berkata Mah memenangi sokongan pengundi Melayu kerana keberkesanan jentera Umno yang dapat menembusi ke dalam zon Melayu dan menawarkan sokongan barangan yang lebih berbanding pembangkang.
Para penganalisis berkata dengan kemenangan ini, Mah kini boleh membantu Gerakan mendapatkan kuasa politik yang lebih besar dalam BN dan perlahan-lahan menukar nasibnya.
"Mereka benar-benar perlu berusaha dan melaksanakan janji untuk orang Teluk Intan. Untuk DAP, mereka perlu kembali kepada papan putih mereka dan bekerja keras untuk memenangi kawasan bukan bandar,"kata Ibrahim.
"Ia menunjukkan bahawa di kawasan separa bandar atau luar bandar sokongan menjadi sukar untuk DAP dan ahli-ahli mereka perlu bekerja di kawasan begini jika mereka benar-benar mahu menang dalam pilihan raya umum akan datang." – tmi
Victory in defeat...
So near, yet so far. It has been a whirlwind campaign over the last two weeks, and although we may not have achieved our ultimate goal of winning this by-election, I don’t think anyone can deny that we have given our all against the might of the entire Federal government machinery.
Despite the negative and malicious campaigning, the people of Teluk Intan have shown their strong support for the ideas, struggles and principles that my party and I stand for.
Nonetheless, I congratulate Dato’ Mah Siew Keong on his victory.
I believe that this result is a great achievement for me personally, as well as a progressive step forward for the party. In spite of the tremendous odds stacked against us, we managed to knock down barriers previously thought impossible, and that is the real victory.
I accept the outcome positively, and vow to strengthen my resolve and continue fighting for the hopes and dreams of all Malaysians. I would like to take this opportunity to thank the party leadership for their unflinching support, the campaign team for their tireless commitment, and our volunteers who sacrificed so much time and energy.
I would also like to thank our coalition partners, including leaders from PAS and PKR who gave us their strongest support. In particular, I would also like to thank the local Teluk Intan PAS machinery, as well as the PAS Muslimat, for all their efforts and solidarity.
Finally, I would like to extend my deepest and most sincere appreciations to each and every voter of Teluk Intan. You have let me into your lives and I hereby tell you that I will continue what I have started.
This is not the end but merely the beginning. If there is one thing I have learned from the last two weeks, it is that there are thousands if not millions of Malaysians who also believe in the goal of “Malaysianising” Malaysia. And so, to each and every one of you out there, I promise that the day will come when we will all roar together for a new Malaysia.
DYANA SOFYA MOHD DAUD
To the good people of Teluk Intan
To the good people of Teluk Intan
UMNO the real Teluk Intan winner, says Anwar...
Gerakan's victory in Teluk Intan is actually a victory for Umno, said Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim.
"Gerakan is inconsequential, and can claim that their president has won, but on their own, they are virtually ineffective," Anwar said when met at his daughter's wedding reception in Permatang Pauh.
"So it is basically Umno and (the) entire federal government versus Pakatan.”
Anwar said BN and Umno used the race card when campaigning to the Malays by saying that DAP is very aggressive and dangerous, in order to garner votes for themselves in this by-election.
He added that all the Malay extremist groups were on the ground to do just that.
"Unfortunately the Chinese community were not aware of the extent of the racism being played (out).”
Anwar said Pakatan Rakyat's rivals gave the perception that DAP often asserts pressure in Pakatan and this shows that the Malays are weak.
"But we say the Chinese candidate in Gerakan is under Umno's thumb, he will submit to Umno. The Malay candidate in DAP, on the other had, will be more assertive.
"Notwithstanding all this, we will have to work hard and work more especially in rural heartland," he said.
Gerakan's Mah Siew Keong won with a razor thin majority of 238 majority votes over DAP's Dyana Sofya Mohd Daud in the Teluk Intan by-election yesterday.
'Inconsiderate and arrogant'
On his remark that Chinese are stupid if they continue to vote BN, Anwar explained the context in which he made the statement.
"We have never seen in history how Umno leaders have been so inconsiderate and arrogant in casting aspersions and making absurd allegations against any minority community especially the Chinese," he said.
"MCA and Gerakan has no ability and courage to stand up against Umno, so certainly it is absurd or stupid to assume that the Chinese will still support BN," he added.
"I was right because still a vast number of Chinese still support Pakatan and DAP," he asserted.Anwar also attributed DAP's loss in Teluk Intan to the poor turnout yesterday, which is 67.4 percent, a drop from 80 percent in the May 5 general election last year.
He recalled that DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng (left) has said that a 70 percent voter turn-out was necessary for a chance for the party to retain the seat.
Low turnout had plagued Pakatan in several by-elections like Sungai Limau, Kajang, Bukit Gelugor and now Teluk Intan.
"This trend is quite disconcerting, it will affect our performance. Some voters are overconfident since they think this election doesn't make a difference in the state or federal government unlike a general election," Anwar explained.
Malay support maintained
He pointed out that despite the DAP's loss, the party had maintained its Malay support, although smaller in percentage. However support from Chinese and Indians had decreased.
This, Anwar attributed to the manner in which the campaign was conducted in Teluk Intan.
"BN and Umno blatantly demonise and create fear among voters and apparently nothing has changed," Anwar said."Umno displayed arrogance and racism as well as insulted, abused and launched personal attacks against the candidate," he added.
"All our efforts to counter did not reach the rural heartland. We have been doing it but it’s not easy to get premises for ceramah while the locals are glued to mainstream media like TV3 and RTM1 and RTM2," he stressed.
And these are the areas where BN and Umno most focused their campaign, he pointed out.
Anwar said that to any decent observer, the democratic process is flawed when the opposition does not have excess to the media.
He said the system will continue to persist even in the GE14 which will be called by 2018.
However he conceded Pakatan also had to work harder to diffuse its internal disputes.
These problems included DAP and PAS disagreeing on the implementation of hudud law in Kelantan and PKR's internal polls which have been tarnished by alleged fraud and violence.
On the crisis in the PKR polls, Anwar said he was calling a meeting among PKR leaders tomorrow night to discuss the matter.
"Failure to address this or explain these issues will affect the voters," he said.Anwar also conceded that Mah (left) being promised a minister post in the cabinet and the perception that he would be able fulfill promises made by the BN, was a factor in the former deputy minister's victory.
Anwar also blamed the Election Commission for being blind to the many alleged irregularities in the by-election.
He cited the example of an Umno man walking into a polling centre wearing BN's logo and the "blatant use of money" to entice the voters like promises of development.
"No doubt there was a high turnout at the DAP's final ceramah on Friday, but these are mostly urban or semi-urban voters. However BN played with the sentiments of the rural folk from all communities," he added.- mk
"I think Dyana did fine but was stumped by the lack of returning voters (related to voter turnout) which was a major factor – these will mostly be younger voters."
Kian Meng has got a detailed analysis here.
"The Chinese swing was very significant – 15 per cent i.e. out of town young people did not come back to vote."
"Second, she didn’t really tackle local issues. But DAP has pushed the envelope further with this foray."
Of course, some of the voters in a semi-urban place like Teluk Intan may still be captive to the usual dirty tricks (the hacking of Pakatan politicians’ phones, the distribution of dubious photos, the handing out of goodies) and many of them still don’t have access to alternative news and views in the online media.
But the DAP/Pakatan also has to figure out why out-of-town voters did not feel compelled to come back and vote this time around.
Was it because nothing much was at stake in terms of parliamentary numbers, no matter who won?
Or maybe not enough of these out-of-town voters realised the breakthrough that Dyana might have made in helping to cast off race-based politics?
Or could there be something deeper and more troubling – like Teluk Intan voters living in Selangor/KL growing a bit more disillusioned with the problems within Pakatan (Pas’ hudud gambit, the infighting within PKR, and the Big Capital inclinations of the DAP)?
Have voters grown a bit more disenchanted with the Pakatan’s inability to come up with an alternative pro-people development model that focuses on their basic needs (as opposed to the neoliberal model that results in greater inequality) – a model that would capture the imagination of the ordinary rakyat on the ground? A model that would pay more than lip service to food security, affordable housing, public transport, universal health care (instead of medical tourism) …
Some introspection and reflection might be in order to learn from the lessons of Teluk Intan.- anil netto
The Chinese were called ingrate , intruders, trespassers and to leave Malaysia by BN and by bodies BN supported and yet they still voted for BN...
Untung orang Teluk Intan,boleh dapat universiti,boleh dapat limbungan kapal,boleh dapat lebuhraya pesisir pantai.Orang Teluk Intan tak payah pergi KL ,Teluk Intan menawarkan peluang pekerjaan. Labur 6 bilion BN hanya mampu tambah 71 undi saja. Pada tahun 2013,Mah dapat 20,086 ,pada PRK 2014 Mah dapat 20,157.Dalam tempoh setahun,dengan kempen bantuan agensi kerajaan,media perdana ,BN hanya mampu tambah undi 71 sahaja...
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DAP
BN
BEBAS
5/5/2013
31/5/2014
Berkat kemenangan BN di Teluk Intan
cheers.
...dan angkat teloq pemimpin2 dan penyangak2 rasuah!!! sambil melaung "hidup Melayu"...
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