Sungai Limau - Pengundi2 Cina dah kalih kat BN/UMNO......

Pada PRU-13 lalu, PAS memenangi kerusi DUN Sungai Limau apabila menewaskan calon BN dengan majoriti 2,774 undi, sekaligus mengekalkan rekod tanpa kalah selama 5 penggal berturut-turut.

Apakah pengundian esok bakal mengesahkan PAS terus unggul di kubu kuatnya itu atau sekadar berputih mata, andai BN berjaya merampas kerusi DUN-20 yang pernah diwakili oleh bekas Menteri Besar Kedah, Tan Sri Azizan Abdul Razak sebelum ini?

Berbekalkan rekod kemenangan lampau, PAS dijangka tidak menghadapi kesukaran mempertahankan kerusi DUN Sungai Limau dengan temanya; ‘Kekal’.

Sebaliknya, BN terpaksa berkerja keras mendekati penduduk setempat dengan tawaran pakej pembangunan modal insan dan infrastruktur, untuk meraih sokongan, khasnya pengundi atas pagar kira-kira 14,000 orang yang selama ini memihak kepada PAS. ‘Berani berhijrah’ kah mereka sepertimana slogan BN dalam PRK itu?

Sebelum ini, PAS disifatkan selesa dengan kedudukan 60-40 peratus di DUN Sungai Limau (dulunya DUN Sala), berdasarkan kejayaan PAS meningkatkan undi sebanyak 1,351 kepada jumlah undi 13,294 pada PRU-13, berbanding 11,943 pada PRU-12. Dari satu segi lain, penganalisa politik berpendapat peningkatan itu hanya mewakili satu perempat (25%) daripada 5,255 pemilih baru, bukanlah suatu petanda baik untuk PAS di Sungai Limau kerana kecenderungan 75% lebih memihak kepada BN.

Strategi PAS mempertaruhkan calon muda berusia 37 tahun,  Mohd Azam Abdul Samat, cucu kepada Tuan Guru Haji Hamid, pengasas pondok di Bukit Besar, dilihat sebagai serampang dua mata, bukan sekadar mengekalkan imej kepimpinan ulamak oleh PAS, tetapi juga strategi menawan hati sebahagian 3,904 lagi pengundi muda yang mengundi BN pada PRU lalu.

Pun begitu, imej bersih calon PAS, sedikit tercalar apabila timbulnya isu poster kempen yang memanipulasi gambar Azizan, seorang tokoh dihormati oleh masyarakat Sungai Limau.

Personaliti Azizan
 
Tidak dinafikan, faktor kemenangan PAS selama lima penggal berturut-turut sebelum ini lebih banyak bergantung kepada personaliti Azizan itu sendiri, bukannya kekuatan mutlak PAS, kerana jumlah ahli PAS Sungai Limau hanya sekitar 3,000 orang saja.

Tidak hairanlah, apabila jentera kempen BN dengan mudah memasuki kubu-kubu PAS di Bukit Besar, Bukit Choras, Sungai Dedap dan Permatang Buluh, melalui program berkampung bersama masyarakat setempat yang turut disertai oleh Menteri Besar Kedah, Datuk Mukhriz Tun Mahathir.

Jika sebelum ini, pusat daerah mengundi (pdm) Ulu Sedaka, Sedaka dan Titi Batu dikuasai oleh PAS, tetapi keadaan berbeza kali ini. Ketua Bahagian Umno Jerai, Datuk Seri Jamil Khir Baharom berasal dari kawasan itu akan menjadi batu penghalang kepada PAS untuk terus mengekalkan majoriti undi di situ.

Tambahan pula, calon BN, Dr. Ahmad Sohaimi Lazim anak kelahiran Titi Batu, dijangka mendapat sokongan padu daripada orang kampungnya sendiri.

Segelintir penyokong PAS mendakwa, pengumuman peruntukan sebanyak RM RM2.25 juta kepada tiga buah Sekolah Cina di DUN Sungai Limau baru-baru ini, akan menyebabkan sokongan kira-kira 1,800 pengundi bukan Melayu beralih arah kepada BN.

Jika ini berlaku, BN bukan sahaja dapat mengurangkan majoriti PAS, tetapi tidak mustahil akan berlaku kejutan. Mungkinkah PAS akan kecundang di gelanggang sendiri akibat dari penderhakaan pengundi bukan Melayu?-fmt

Kalu tak menipu bukan UMNO namanya...

Majlis berani hijrah utk jadi ahli UMNO baru bersama Menteri Jamil Khir...

Seorang ahli PAS, Ismail Said mendedahkan bahawa beliau telah ditipu kononnya telah menyertai UMNO dengan "penyerahan borang" kepada Menteri di Jabatan Perdana Menteri, Jamil Khir Baharom sedangkan sebenarnya beliau ke majlis itu kerana telah dijemput untuk menerima sumbangan sebanyak RM100. Baca seterusnya di sini...

Mainan otak orang berkarat biru....naikkan harga gula nak kurangkan kencing manis turunkn harga gula nak dapatkan undi lebih .... itulah tahap pemikiran UMNO dulu,kini dan selama2nya....

PAS may win Sg Limau, but BN wins psy war...

The fight for the Sungai Limau state seat is a battle between two spheres - the physical, where development is a major issue versus the spiritual, where voters are constantly reminded about the need to preserve their soul and dignity.

"Do not sell your soul for a piece of sarong," PKR deputy president Azmin Ali told supporters in Kg Selengkoh on Friday, while PAS candidate Mohd Azam Samat reminded them about the perils of bribery in the eyes of Allah.

Despite this, BN has poured in millions in terms of financial allocations in Sungai Limau while trying to bank on its "fixed deposits" - the padi farmers and the fisherfolk.

Government ministers, led by Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, have made Sungai Limau their home these past 12 days, disrupting the peaceful lives of villagers here.

At the same time, BN is also trying to sway the young and Chinese voters with material promises as the two groups are pragmatic and are known to vote based on needs and not emotions.

PAS tries to keep the old folks and women firmly within their grip as these two groups have great influence in their families' decisions to vote.

Sungai Limau is after all a rural seat, where families and friends stay close despite their political differences.

But this war is not only between BN and PAS.

Mukhriz personal battle

This war is fought on several fronts, one of them is for Kedah Menteri Besar Mukhriz Mahathir to redeem himself after losing the chance to become Umno vice president at its recent by-election.

Mukhriz also has the duty to preserve his father's dignity, as a loss for Mukhriz is a loss for Mahathir, the influential former premier, who is seen not just as the political driver behind his son's ambitions, but some say a backseat driver of Umno as well.

On the other hand, Azam is trying very hard to fit in the shoes of former Sungai Limau assemblyperson and former Kedah Menteri Besar Azizan Abdul Razak who has won the seat three times for PAS, which has held it for five terms since 1995.

Azizan died on Sept 26 paving the way for this by-election that goes to polling tomorrow.

More than just a by-election, a Sungai Limau win is also about unity - within Umno as well as within PAS in Kedah.

Both parties are smarting from internal factions and a win or lose in Sungai Limau indicates how well the conflicts have been handled or dealt with, as both parties prepare for GE14.

If BN wins, it would be a major victory for Mukhriz for this is the first time he is leading a by-election, and a victory would seal his strength as head of the Kedah government.

PAS win a redemption

A win for PAS could mend the hearts of its leaders who failed to retain Kedah on May 5, and the party would continue to play its role as a major opposition in the state legislative assembly.

If PAS loses, or even if its majority is reduced, the party would have to do some serious study on what went wrong and change its strategies for future battles.

Whichever the case, the campaign for the Sungai Limau seat ends at midnight; the votes of the two parties' hardcore supporters will remain firm while some swing is expected in the youth (which makes up 23 percent) among the 27,222 voters.

Some swing is also expected in the Chinese community after RM2.25 million in aid has been given to three Chinese schools as a carrot, although they may opt to support Pakatan Rakyat after Penang Chief Minister and DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng reminded them that Umno has often treated them as second class citizens.

In the final analysis, PAS may retain the seat with a lesser majority, but BN would have made major inroads into PAS' hardcore areas.

In other words PAS may win the election but lose the war; on the other hand, BN may lose the seat but wins the campaign to weaken PAS in its stronghold.-susan loone,malaysiakini

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