Keutamaan bagi Pakatan Rakyat ialah untuk membentuk majlis strategik peringkat tertinggi untuk menyusun rancangan menawan Putrajaya dalam pilihanraya akan datang...
Tahniah diucapkan kepada pimpinan dan perwakilan PAS atas kejayaan melaksanakan Muktamar ke-59 di peringkat kebangsaan, pemuda, dan wanita dengan lancar sehingga menggagalkan usaha para penyusun konspirasi Umno yang telah bekerja lebih masa menerusi media sosial di ruang siber untuk mewujudkan perseteruan dan perpecahan dalam PAS dan untuk menghancurkan kesatuan matlamat Pakatan Rakyat. Muktamar yang baru berlangsung itu memberi harapan kepada majoriti rakyat Malaysia yang percaya bahawa politik dua pakatan di Malaysia masih hidup dan bertenaga.Timbalan Presiden PAS Mohamad Sabu menyedarkan semua orang apabila beliau menyebut dalam ucapan penggulungannya bagi Muktamar ke-59 itu bahawa PAS tidak akan berkembang ke luar pantai timur semenanjung jika parti itu tidak menyertai Pakatan Rakyat bersama PKR dan DAP.
Kata Mat Sabu:
“Kalau PAS berjuang secara sendirian, sudah tentunya jajahan kita tidak lebih daripada Rantau Panjang (utara Kelantan) sehingga Kemaman (Terengganu).
“Di bawah Pakatan Rakyat, jajahan kita melebar sehingga ke Selangor dan Insya Allah sampai ke Johor.”Pada tahun 1999, PAS mendapat faedah besar daripada kemarahan orang terhadap BN berikutan krisis politik dan ekonomi 1998 sehingga ia memenangi 27 kerusi parlimen dan 98 kerusi DUN, menjadikannya parti pembangkang terbesar.
Bagaimanapun, 93% dan 86% kerusi parlimen dan negeri yang dimenangi PAS ialah di negeri “Utara”, iaitu Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan dan Terengganu.
Pada tahun 2004, berikutan “Tsunami” Pak Lah, PAS hanya berjaya memenangi 6 kerusi parlimen dan 33 kerusi negeri (100% kerusi parlimen dan 94% kerusi negeri di negeri-negeri utara).
Tahun 2008 menandakan anjakan besar sokongan terhadap PAS dari negeri-negeri di luar negeri utara. PAS menang 23 kerusi parlimen dan 83 kerusi negeri, hanya 70% kerusi parlimen dan 76% kerusi negeri di keempat-empat negeri utara.
Pada tahun 2013, PAS kerusi parlimen yang dimenangi PAS kurang dua (21 kerusi) berbanding pada pilihanraya 2008 (23 kerusi), tetapi parti itu berjaya menambah dua lagi kerusi negeri (85 kerusi) berbanding sebelum itu (83). Kali ini, hanya 67% kerusi parlimen dan 66% kerusi negeri adalah di keempat-empat negeri utara (lihat Jadual 1 di bawah).
Jadual 1: Taburan kerusi Parlimen dan Negeri PAS (1999 – 2013)
| Negeri | 1999 | 2004 | 2008 | 2013 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parl. | State | Parl. | DUN | Parl. | DUN | Parl. | DUN | |
| Perlis | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kedah | 8 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 9 |
| Kelantan | 10 | 41 | 5 | 24 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 32 |
| Terengganu | 7 | 28 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14 |
| Penang | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Perak | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 5 |
| Pahang | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Selangor | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 15 |
| KL | 0 | NA | 0 | NA | 1 | NA | 0 | NA |
| Negeri Sembilan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Melaka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Johor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| P.Msia | 27 | 98 | 6 | 35 | 23 | 83 | 21 | 85 |
| Perlis, Kedah, K’tan & T’gganu | 25 | 84 | 6 | 33 | 16 | 63 | 14 | 56 |
| Lain-lain | 2 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 7 | 29 |
| di Utara % | 92.6% | 85.7% | 100.0% | 94.3% | 69.6% | 75.9% | 66.7% | 65.9% |
| Lain-lain % | 7.4% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 5.7% | 30.4% | 24.1% | 33.3% | 34.1% |
Dengan menganggotai Pakatan, PAS telah berjaya melangkah melampaui empat negeri terasnya.
Kegagalan PAS di Kedah pada tahun 2013 tidak boleh dikaitkan dengan penyertaan PAS dalam Pakatan, sebaliknya kerana faktor dalaman. Penjelasan yang sama boleh dikemukakan untuk memahami kemerosotan sokongan terhadap PAS di Kelantan.
Jika sokongan terhadap PAS di negeri-negeri utama Melayu terjejas kerana keanggotaannya dalam Pakatan, sudah tentu pencapaiannya di Terengganu tidak akan meningkat.
Jelas bahawa pertambahan penduduk secara pesat di Semenanjung Malaysia akan berlaku di Selangor, KL dan Johor. Di negeri-negeri inilah kita akan melihat adanya peningkatan jumlah kerusi (parlimen dan negeri). Kebanyakan kerusi baru ini dari segi kaum adalah kerusi ‘campuran’.
Jika PAS hendak terus berkembang di luar 4 negeri utara, ia perlu bekerjasama dalam konteks Pakatan untuk meningkatkan sokongan Melayu dan juga bukan-Melayu. Di negeri-negeri utara, PAS perlu memperkukuhkan diri dan Pakatan di peringkat dalaman.
Satu lagi cara untuk meneliti prestasi PAS berdasarkan negeri ialah dengan menganalisa peratusan undi yang diraih PAS di kerusi-kerusi yang ditandingi oleh PAS di setiap negeri.
Maklumat berkenaan boleh dilihat dalam Jadual 2 di bawah.
Sokongan terhadap PAS di Kelantan dan Terengganu mencapai tahap tertinggi pada tahun 1999 (iaitu masing-masing 60.5% dan 58.7%). Sokongan terhadap PAS di Kedah mencapai tahap tertinggi pada tahun 2008 apabila ia meraih 50.6% undi di kerusi-kerusi yang ditandinginya.
Pada tahun 2013, walaupun sokongan terhadap PAS merosot di Kedah, Kelantan, dan Terengganu berbanding tahun 1999, peratusan undi yang didapatinya masih jauh lebih tinggi daripada yang didapati pada tahun 2004.
Pada masa yang sama, sokongan terhadap PAS di luar 4 negeri utara telah meningkat dengan banyak sejak tahun 1999, khususnya di Pulau Pinang (peningkatan sebanyak 16.8%), Selangor (peningkatan sebanyak 11.0%), Negeri Sembilan (5.1%) dan Johor (7.2%). Ini menunjukkan bahawa keanggotaan PAS dalam Pakatan telah menguntungkannya di ketiga-tiga buah negeri.
Jadual 2: % undi dimenangi PAS di kerusi parlimen yang ditandingi PAS (1999 hingga 2013)
| Negeri | Parlimen (As a % of Votes in PAS Seats) | Perbezaan 1999 hingga 2013 | Perbezaan 2004 hingga 2013 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 2004 | 2008 | 2013 | |||
| Perlis | 44.5% | 35.6% | 44.5% | 44.7% | 0.2% | 9.1% |
| Kedah | 48.4% | 42.1% | 50.6% | 46.4% | -1.9% | 4.4% |
| Kelantan | 60.5% | 47.2% | 55.1% | 54.4% | -6.2% | 7.2% |
| Terengganu | 58.7% | 44.2% | 44.9% | 48.9% | -9.8% | 4.7% |
| Penang | 30.0% | 28.2% | 38.4% | 46.8% | 16.8% | 18.6% |
| Perak | 44.3% | 35.0% | 48.1% | 43.6% | -0.7% | 8.6% |
| Pahang | 44.0% | 32.6% | 39.7% | 42.1% | -1.9% | 9.5% |
| Selangor | 43.3% | 32.6% | 51.9% | 54.3% | 11.0% | 21.7% |
| WPKL | 47.5% | 27.3% | 48.7% | 44.3% | -3.2% | 17.1% |
| Melaka | 34.0% | 21.4% | 29.4% | 28.9% | -5.1% | 7.5% |
| Negeri Sembilan | 34.4% | 23.0% | 30.8% | 39.5% | 5.1% | 16.4% |
| Johor | 28.1% | 17.6% | 28.8% | 35.2% | 7.2% | 17.6% |
| Semj. Msia | 47.5% | 34.4% | 45.3% | 47.3% | -0.2% | 12.9% |
Keanggotaan PAS dalam Pakatan jelas telah membantu parti itu memenangi dua kerusi parlimen baru pada tahun 2013, kerusi yang tidak mungkin dimenanginya tanpa sokongan Pakatan.
Di Temerloh, kerusi parlimen yang mempunyai 63% pengundi Melayu, 26% Cina, dan 9% India, PAS telah menang dengan majoriti 1070 undi berkat sokongan kuat daripada 35% pengundi bukan-Melayu dalam kawasan tersebut.
Di Sepang, kerusi yang mempunyai 59% Melayu, 23% Cina, 18% India, PAS menang dengan majoriti 1142 undi menentang seorang bekas menteri UMNO dengan sokongan kuat 41% pengundi bukan-Melayu dalam kawasan tersebut.
Jika PAS hendak merebut kembali kerusi Sungai Besar (34% bukan-Melayu), Kuala Selangor (36% bukan-Melayu) dan Titiwangsa (32% bukan-Melayu) yang dipegangnya dulu, ia mesti memanfaatkan kekuatan jenama dan kerjasama Pakatan.
Bukan hanya PAS mendapat faedah daripada kerjasama dalam Pakatan Rakyat kerana hal yang sama juga boleh disebutkan untuk DAP dan PKR.
Tidak diragui lagi bahawa dengan membentuk pakatan, setiap satu daripada ketiga-tiga parti DAP, PKR, dan PAS berjaya merebut lebih banyak kerusi parlimen dan negeri berbanding jika setiap parti ini bertanding secara bersendirian, dan dengan kerjasama itu juga mereka mampu meningkatkan jumlah keseluruhan kerusi yang dimenangi di seluruh negara.
Perkara terpenting bagi Pakatan Rakyat kini ialah untuk membentuk majlis strategik peringkat tertinggi untuk menyusun rancangan merampas kerajaan pusat dan menawan Putrajaya dalam pilihanraya akan datang, selain mencatat keputusan terbaik untuk PR di setiap negeri.- Lim Kit Siang
Top priority for Pakatan Rakyat is to set up a high-level PR 14GE strategic council to plan for the capture of federal government in Putrajaya in next general elections...
Congratulations are in order to PAS leaders and delegates for a very successful 59th Muktamar at national, youth and wanita levels, causing great disappointments to UMNO plotters and conspirators who had worked overtime through their printed or social media in cyberspace to sow dissension and distrust within PAS ranks and to sabotage the unity of purpose of Pakatan Rakyat and giving hope to enlightened Malaysians who comprise the majority of the electorate that two-coalition politics in Malaysia is here to stay as it is very much alive and kicking.
PAS Deputy President Mohamad Sabu struck the nail on the head when he pointed out in his winding-up speech at the 59th Muktamar that PAS would only be a regional party confined to the east coast of the peninsula if it had not entered into a pact with PKR and DAP in Pakatan Rakyat.
As Mat Sabu succinctly said:
“Without Pakatan, our area of dominance would only stretch from Rantau Panjang (in northern Kelantan) to Kemaman (southern Terengganu).
“But with Pakatan, we conquered Selangor and, God willing, it will be Johor next.”In 1999, when PAS benefitted most from the backlash against BN because of the 1998 political and economic crisis, it won 27 parliament and 98 state seats making it the largest opposition party.
However, 93% and 86% of the parliament and state seats won by PAS was in its “Northern” heartland of Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.
In 2004, as a result of the Pak Lah “Tsunami”, PAS was reduced to 6 parliament and 33 state seats (100% and 94% of which, respectively, were in the Northern states).
2008 marked a significant shift in PAS’s support outside the 4 Northern States. PAS won 23 parliament and 83 state seats in total, out of which 70% and 76% were in the 4 Northern States.
In 2013, PAS won 2 fewer parliament seats (21 vs 23) but won 2 more state seats (85 vs 83) and this time, 67% and 66% of parliament and state seats respectively were in the 4 Northern States
(See Table 1 below)
| State | 1999 | 2004 | 2008 | 2013 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parl. | State | Parl. | State | Parl. | State | Parl. | State | |
| Perlis | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kedah | 8 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 9 |
| Kelantan | 10 | 41 | 5 | 24 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 32 |
| Terengganu | 7 | 28 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14 |
| Penang | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Perak | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 5 |
| Pahang | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Selangor | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 15 |
| KL | 0 | NA | 0 | NA | 1 | NA | 0 | NA |
| Negeri Sembilan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Melaka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Johor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| P.Msia | 27 | 98 | 6 | 35 | 23 | 83 | 21 | 85 |
| Perlis, Kedah, K’tan & T’gganu | 25 | 84 | 6 | 33 | 16 | 63 | 14 | 56 |
| Others | 2 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 7 | 29 |
| Northern % | 92.6% | 85.7% | 100.0% | 94.3% | 69.6% | 75.9% | 66.7% | 65.9% |
| Others % | 7.4% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 5.7% | 30.4% | 24.1% | 33.3% | 34.1% |
Being part of Pakatan has helped PAS venture beyond its core 4 northern states.
The setback faced by PAS in Kedah in 2013 cannot be explained in terms of PAS participation in Pakatan but more so because of internal factors. Similar explanations can be used for the slight decrease in support for PAS in Kelantan.
If being part of Pakatan hurt PAS in the Malay heartland, then PAS would not have made gains in Terengganu.
Moving forward, it is clear that the states which have and will continue to experience the largest population growth in Peninsular Malaysia are Selangor, KL and Johor. These are where most of the new seat increases (parliament and state) will occur.
Many of the new seats will be ethnically ‘mixed’ seats.
Hence, if PAS wants to continue to make inroads beyond its 4 Northern States, it must work together in the context of Pakatan to maximize its Malay as well as non-Malay support.
In the 4 Northern States, PAS must look internally to strengthen itself and Pakatan.
Another way of examining PAS’ performance out on a state by state basis is to analyse the % of votes obtained by PAS in the seats contested by PAS in each state.
This information is shown in Table 2 below.
| State | Parliament (As a % of Votes in PAS Seats) | Change 1999 to 2013 | Change 2004 to 2013 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 2004 | 2008 | 2013 | |||
| Perlis | 44.5% | 35.6% | 44.5% | 44.7% | 0.2% | 9.1% |
| Kedah | 48.4% | 42.1% | 50.6% | 46.4% | -1.9% | 4.4% |
| Kelantan | 60.5% | 47.2% | 55.1% | 54.4% | -6.2% | 7.2% |
| Terengganu | 58.7% | 44.2% | 44.9% | 48.9% | -9.8% | 4.7% |
| Penang | 30.0% | 28.2% | 38.4% | 46.8% | 16.8% | 18.6% |
| Perak | 44.3% | 35.0% | 48.1% | 43.6% | -0.7% | 8.6% |
| Pahang | 44.0% | 32.6% | 39.7% | 42.1% | -1.9% | 9.5% |
| Selangor | 43.3% | 32.6% | 51.9% | 54.3% | 11.0% | 21.7% |
| WPKL | 47.5% | 27.3% | 48.7% | 44.3% | -3.2% | 17.1% |
| Melaka | 34.0% | 21.4% | 29.4% | 28.9% | -5.1% | 7.5% |
| Negeri Sembilan | 34.4% | 23.0% | 30.8% | 39.5% | 5.1% | 16.4% |
| Johor | 28.1% | 17.6% | 28.8% | 35.2% | 7.2% | 17.6% |
| P.Msia | 47.5% | 34.4% | 45.3% | 47.3% | -0.2% | 12.9% |
PAS support in Kelantan and Terengganu reached its highest level in 1999 (60.5% and 58.7% respectively). PAS support in Kedah was the highest in 2008 when it won 50.6% of total votes in the seats it contested in. In 2013, even though PAS support is lower in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu compared to 1999, it is still much higher than in 2004.
At the same time, PAS’ support outside the 4 Northern States have increased significantly since 1999 especially in Penang (16.8% increase), Selangor (11.0%), Negeri Sembilan (5.1%) and Johor (7.2%). This shows that being part of Pakatan has clearly paid dividends for PAS in these states.
Table 2: % of votes won by PAS in PAS contested parliament seats (1999 to 2013)
Being part of Pakatan definitely helped PAS win two new parliament seats in 2013 that it could not have won without Pakatan’s support.
In Temerloh, a 63% Malay, 26% Chinese, 9% Indian seat, PAS won with a 1070 majority with very strong support coming from the 35% non-Malay voters in this seat.
In Sepang, a 59% Malay, 23% Chinese, 18% Indian seat, PAS won with a 1142 majority against a former UMNO Minister again with very strong support coming from the 41% non-Malay voters in this area.
For PAS to win back some of the marginal seats which it lost such as Sungai Besar (34% non-Malay), Kuala Selangor (36% non-Malay) and Titiwangsa (32% non-Malay), it must utilize the strength of the Pakatan brand and cooperation.
It is not just PAS which had benefitted from its partnership in Pakatan Rakyat, as the same case can be made for both the DAP and PKR as well.
There can be no doubt that by forming the coalition, the three component parties of DAP, PKR and PAS could not only individually win greater number of parliamentary and state assembly seats than when they are contesting on their own, they could also achieve a greater sum total of the overall number of parliamentary and state assembly seats countrywide.
The top priority for Pakatan Rakyat at present is to set up a high-level PR 14GE strategic council to plan for the capture of federal government in Putrajaya in next general elections as well as to achieve optimum election results for PR in the various states.-Lim Kit Siang
sapa tak sayang bini...
cheers.
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