Najib likely to delay polls coz 'fixed deposit' states not safe anymore...

The drawn-out exit of two Sabah Barisan Nasional (BN) leaders over the weekend is likely to delay a general election from a firm September date to the end of the year as the ruling coalition works to retain its “fixed deposit” in the Borneo states, say sources.

BN sources in Sabah and Kuala Lumpur say the pledge by Tuaran MP Datuk Seri Wilfred Bumburing and Beaufort MP Datuk Seri Lajim Ukin to support Pakatan Rakyat (PR) is among reasons that Datuk Seri Najib Razak is re-looking dates for a snap poll after Budget Day on September 28 for his personal mandate, some three years and three months after taking power in April 2009.

“It is not likely in September now although Umno and its partners are ready for the polls,” a BN source from Kuala Lumpur told The Malaysian Insider.

Sources had earlier told The Malaysian Insider that a snap poll was likely to happen in September if Najib carries through a plan to dissolve Parliament in August, nine months before the BN mandate expires in April 2013. There have been a few dates bandied about in the past year although the country’s sixth prime minister has expressed confidence of sweeping the majority of all state and federal seats.

Before the latest defection, BN controlled 22 out of the 25 federal seats in Sabah and one in the Federal Territory of Labuan. In Election 2008, BN lost its customary two-thirds parliamentary majority largely due to significant losses in the peninsula, where it won just 85 seats while the opposition swept 80 seats.

BN’s saving grace was in Sabah, Sarawak and Labuan where the pact trounced the opposition and made a near-clean sweep, winning 55 parliamentary seats to the opposition’s two. But after the weekend, BN now controls 136 federal seats while PR has 76 seats, SAPP two and eight independents in the 222-seat Dewan Rakyat.

A Sabah BN source also said a September date is unlikely due to the latest developments in the state, as the ruling coalition will have to ensure there are no serious ramifications from the walkout by the two senior Sabah MPs. Lajim is a deputy minister and Umno supreme council member while Bumburing is the United Pasokmomogun Kadazandusun Murut Organisation (UPKO) deputy president.

“They both don’t have much influence outside their areas but it could spread and prove to be a factor if polls are held soon. Then again, it can fester and still be a problem later on,” he added.

There has been speculation since June that Bumburing and Lajim would quit BN and support PR but it did not happen until the past weekend. “It is a mystery why BN didn’t take action earlier against both of them,” the Sabah BN source said.

Najib has said over the weekend that he will take action today over Lajim’s move to drop all party posts. The prime minister has been focusing on Sabah lately and even announced a much-wanted royal commission of inquiry (RCI) into the state’s illegals problem although no terms of reference or composition for the panel have been set yet.

Political analysts say BN has always treated Sabah and Sarawak as a sure-fire vote bank as it battles to regain the dominant Malay vote in the peninsula. “The loss of the Malay vote can be countered with votes from Sabah and Sarawak but now, no one is sure anymore if there is a fixed deposit,” a political analyst told The Malaysian Insider on condition of anonymity.

UiTM Sabah lecturer Arnold Puyok said last week his research showed that the BN could lose more up to 14 seats it now holds in the state, adding the Kota Kinabalu, Sandakan and Pensiangan seats are being considered “easy wins” for the opposition. “I don’t think the ‘fixed deposit’ will remain,” he was reported as saying.

Najib’s government has seen a slide in approval ratings with only 42 per cent giving a nod to his administration in a June survey carried out by the Merdeka Center for Opinion Research in Peninsular Malaysia, dropping by six percentage points from a month earlier.

But the prime minister remains popular, with a 64 per cent approval rating in June, down from 65 per cent in May. His predecessor, Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, went into Election 2008 with a 71 per cent approval rating but lost the customary two-thirds parliamentary majority and four states.

Najib is seen as the country’s most hardworking politician with numerous visits to various districts including the latest round under the Jelajah Janji Ditepati (Promises Fulfilled Tour) and cash handouts and pledges to help various demographics.

“Umno needs to make sure both Sabah and Sarawak remain a fixed deposit and provide the bulk of seats because the Malay vote is split in the peninsula,” the source added, referring to Umno’s share of only 79 seats in Election 2008.- malaysian insider

 PRU bakal tangguh akibat tindakan dua pemimpin BN keluar parti, kata sumber...

Tindakan dua pemimpin Barisan Nasional (BN) Sabah keluar parti hujung minggu lalu akan menyebabkan tarikh pilihan raya umum (PRU) sekali lagi ditangguh dari September ke hujung tahun oleh kerana BN perlu memastikan negeri Borneo tersebut terus menjadi ‘simpanan tetap’ kepada BN, kata sumber.

Sumber BN dari Sabah dan Kuala Lumpur mengatakan selepas ahli parlimen Tuaran, Datuk Seri Wilfred Bumburing (kanan) dan ahli parlimen Beaufort, Datuk Seri Lajim Ukin keluar menyokong Pakatan Rakyat (PR) adalah diantara sebab Datuk Seri Najib Razak terpaksa melihat semula tarikh baru pilihan raya mengejut selepas dari pembentangan belanjawan pada 28 April untuk mandat peribadi beliau, tiga tahun tiga bulan selepas ambil alih kuasa pada April 2009.

 “Ia tidak mungkin pada bulan September sekarang walaupun Umno dan rakan-rakan sudah bersedia untuk pilihan raya, “kata seorang sumber BN dari Kuala Lumpur kepada The Malaysian Insider.

“Umno perlu memastikan, Sabah dan Sarawak kekal menjadi simpanan tetap dan memberikan banyak kerusi oleh kerana di Semenanjung, undi Melayu berpecah,” tambah sumber tersebut dengan menambah Umno hanya mendapat 79 kerusi dalam pilihan raya 2008.

Sumber ini yang memberitahu The Malaysian Insider bahawa pilihan raya mengejut akan berlaku pada bulan September jika Najib meneruskan rancangan untuk membubarkan parlimen pada bulan Ogos, sembilan bulan sebelum mandat BN tamat pada April 2013. Terdapat berberapa tarikh yang menjadi buah mulut dalam tahun lalu walaupun perdana menteri keenam Malaysia itu telah menyatakan keyakinannya untuk mendapat majoriti kerusi Dun dan Parlimen.

Sebelum dua pemimpin BN Sabah ini belot, BN mengawal 22 daripada 25 kerusi parlimen di Sabah dan satu di Wilayah Persekutuan Labuan. Dalam pilihan raya 2008, BN hilang penguasaan tradisi dua pertiga di parlimenoleh kerana kekalahan teruk di semenanjung di mana BN menang 85 kerusi manakala pembangkang mendapat 80 kerusi.

Penyelamat BN adalah Sabah, Sarawak dan Labuan dimana gabungan tersebut menang besar apabila mendapat 55 kerusi manakala pembangkang mendapat dua kerusi. Namun selepas hujung minggu ini, BN kini mengawal 136 kerusi, PR 76 kerusi, SAPP dua dan lapan calon bebas dari 222 kerusi Dewan Rakyat.

Menurut sumber BN Sabah lagi, kemungkinan besar tarikh pilihan raya umum tidak lagi September memandangkan perkembangan terbaru di negeri tersebut, tampuk pemerintah perlu memastikan tiada kesan serius menerusi tindakan keluar parti oleh dua MP veteran itu. Lajim ialah timbalan menteri dan ahli majlis tertinggi Umno manakala Bumburing ialah timbalan presiden Pertubuhan Pasokmomogun Kadazandusun Murut (Upko).

“Mereka berdua tidak ada pengaruh yang kuat di luar kawasan mereka namun keadaan ini boleh merebak dan akan menjadi satu faktor sekiranya pilihan raya diadakan dalam jangkamasa terdekat ini. Lagipun, keadaan ini boleh membarah dan tetap akan menjadi satu masalah nanti,” katanya lagi.

Telah wujudnya spekulasi sejak bulan Jun yang Bumburing dan Lajim akan keluar dari BN and menyokong PR tetapi ia tidak berlaku sehinggalah minggu lepas. “Ini merupakan satu misteri kenapa BN tidak mengambil tindakan awal terhadap mereka berdua,” kata sumber BN Sabah lagi.

Najib telah berkata minggu lagi yang beliau akan mengambil tindakan terhadap Lajim yang melepaskan semua jawatan parti pada hari Isnin. Perdana menteri sebelum ini telah memberi tumpuan pada Sabah dan telah mengumumkan penubuhan Royal Commission of Inquiry (RCI) yang telah dinanti-nantikan untuk menyelesaikan masalah pendatang tanpa izin walaupun masih belum mempunyai terma dan komposisi untuk panel masih belum diketahui.

Menurut seorang penganalisis, BN selama ini melayan Sabah dan Sarawak sebagai tempat yang pasti menang dalam perlawanan untuk mendapatkan undi Melayu di semenanjung. “Kehilangan undi Melayu boleh ditampung dengan undi dari Sabah dan Sarawak, tetapi kini tidak ada sesiapa yang boleh menjamin apakah masih terdapat simpanan tetap,” kata seorang penganalisis politik yang tidak mahu namanya diketahui kepada The Malaysian Insider.

Pensyarah UiTM Sabah, Arnold Puyok memberitahu pada minggu lalu bahawa kajiannya menunjukkan BN boleh kalah 14 kerusi yang mereka pegang di negeri tersebut, termasuk Kota Kinabalu, Sandakan dan Pensiangan yang dikategorikan sebagai kerusi mudah menang bagi parti pembangkang.

Kerajaan Najib mendapat 42 peratus sokongan terhadap prestasi memberikan tamparan kepada kerajaannya dalam survey yang dijalankan oleh Merdeka Center di semenanjung, menurun enam peratus dari bulan sebelumnya.

Akan tetapi, perdana menteri kekal popular dengan sokongan sebanyak 64 peratus pada bulan Jun, menurun satu peratus berbanding Mei. Penyandang jawatannya, Tun Abdullah Badawi memasuki pilihan raya 2008 dalam keadaan mendapt 71 peratus sokongan tetapi hilang penguasaan majoriti dua pertiga di parlimen.

Najib dilihat sebagai ahli politik paling berkerja keras dengan pelbagai lawatan ke tempat berbeza termasuk yang terbaru, program ‘Jelajah Janji Ditepati dan pemberian tunai dan janji untuk membantu rakyat dari demografi berbeza.-malaysian insider

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