Anwar verdict: What Najib now faces...

Last July, Prime Minister Najib Razak and Indonesian Muslim leader Amien Rais had a private meeting in a third country to chat about the case of Anwar Ibrahim. Amien, who is close to Anwar, apparently had expressed brotherly concern to Najib about how the political conflict within the Malay leadership was undermining the credibility of Malaysia as a country the Muslim world looked up to.

Amien intimated whether Najib could withdraw the charge. Najib, predictably, told Amien he could not do as asked as he had no power over the judiciary. Besides, Najib said, the case had nothing to do with him.

Six months later, on January 9, the High Court stunned Malaysians by acquitting and discharging Anwar of the charge of sodomy. The surprise verdict lent support to Najib’s assertion about the independence of the judiciary.  Indeed, at face value, the court’s verdict to acquit Anwar is a setback to Najib’s political position.

A free Anwar would certainly be a grave threat to the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition. It had indeed been widely thought a foregone conclusion that Anwar would be found guilty and put away before the coming general election — reflecting the Malaysian public’s generally low confidence in the judiciary.

So what does the verdict mean for Malaysian politics?

Much has been speculated about the timing of the general election, the 13th since independence. Will Anwar’s freedom accelerate or delay Najib’s plans? While it must be called before 2013, there has been talk that Najib was leaning towards a snap poll soon after the Chinese New Year next week.

Significantly, Najib had also told Amien he was unsure how he would fare at the polls, rating his chances as “50/50”. He was either expressing astute humility or being frank. Either way, it meant he was unlikely to call a GE as early as March or by June, as some are expecting.

This was echoed later when he spoke to the Wall Street Journal, saying that “we still have not delivered on our promises” — referring to the various reforms on the administrative, economic and political fronts that he had announced since taking up the premiership.

In other words, Najib is mindful of his reformist credentials. Allowing the judiciary to be independent would be consistent with his promise of reforming Malaysian politics and governance, as demanded by the electorate. To that end, the verdict by the High Court worked to Najib’s favour.

Anwar walking free also means a fresh and important reason for a later GE: Najib can do with more time to fulfil his electoral promises and strengthen Umno and the BN. He needs to stave off a serious challenge from an Anwar-led opposition whose morale has been revitalised by the verdict.

Najib has so far done a good job at positioning himself as a competent leader. Although he has his fair share of criticism, he has a vision for the country and a roadmap to get there. But he faces an uphill political battle. Unlike his predecessors, Najib has to grapple with the psychologically daunting expectations of winning back the BN’s two-thirds majority in Parliament that Abdullah Ahmad Badawi lost in the 2008 elections.

Najib knows that should he fail to do so, the Umno knives will be out and he could face the same fate as Abdullah — forced discreetly to step down by the party hardliners.

He will also be expected to win back Selangor where, as party liaison chairman, he is Umno chief for that state. Wresting back Selangor would be his saving grace should he fail to resecure the two-thirds at the federal level. His sympathisers can argue that at least he has won back the richest state, one of five that fell to the opposition in 2008.

In anticipation of Najib going all out to recapture Selangor, the opposition state appointed Anwar as its economic adviser. The latter’s freedom will make it harder for Najib to achieve his goal, even though Anwar’s opposition ally, the Islamist party PAS, is facing dissension in its ranks in Selangor.

Should Najib come under pressure from Umno hardliners to rein in Anwar, there will be a push for an appeal against the High Court’s acquittal verdict. There are already rumblings. A prosecution appeal will revive the saga and risk public ire. Matters could end with Anwar going back to jail, and/or backfiring on Umno as the Malaysian public feels further alienated by what they see as relentless victimisation of a political adversary.

In the end, Najib will have to make the judgement call, as he told the WSJ. Will he succumb to the hardliners or rise above the fray, be the emergent reformer and shake up the political system and its politics? - Yang Razali Kassim

source:malaysian insider

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