Possible seats for MCA,MIC,PPP & Gerakan bosses to contest. and chances...

The presidents of the four BN component parties will face a general election without being elected representatives themselves, having suffered a near wipeout from the opposition Pakatan Rakyat in the watershed March 2008 polls.

Malaysiakini spoke to three political analysts - Ong Kian Ming, James Chin and Khoo Kay Peng - for their take on where the four presidents could possible contest and their chances in the next general election.

Dr Chua Soi Lek

Ong Kian Ming: Possible seats - Tanjung Malim (Perak), Tanjung Piai or Kulai (both Johor).

Chua would most possibly go for Kulai, where the Chinese form around 60 percent of the electorate. Johor is also an MCA stronghold, and where Chua has his strongest support base. Kulai would kill two birds with one stone, as a win would effectively cull support for former MCA president and rival Ong Ka Ting.

Tanjung Malim would be a viable second option, as being a semi-urban constituency with a Malay majority, it would be a safe seat, banking on Umno support. Likewise with Kulai, a win would derail support for the Ong brothers, as Ong Ka Chuan is the current MP.

James Chin: Possible seat - Labis

Chua had hinted at returning to Labis, but it is entirely up to the Prime Minister and BN chairperson Najib. Chua Tee Yong, won the seat on support for the father, and since the younger Chua is serving merely as a caretaker, the father would most likely want to go back to his old seat. However, a definite seat for Chua, as with the three other party presidents, would be difficult to predict as seat allocations would depend on last-minute mass movement of voters by the Election Commission (EC) as the election date nears.

Khoo Kay Peng: Possible seat - Labis

Labis stands to be Chua's best chance, as there is continuity with his son sitting in his place. The younger Chua would most likely move on to try his luck in Bakri. Johor is more manageable for Chua, as he has a lot of support from Umno there.

To try in Perak, Chua would need to gauge his own acceptance by BN members there, which should be calculated based on grassroots support. Perak may not be as accepting as Johor. Even if Chua does not contest Labis, Bakri would be a good test bed to try and wrest the seat back from DAP.

Dr.Koh Tsu Koon

Ong Kian Ming: Possible seats - Simpang Renggam (Johor), Segambut (Kuala Lumpur)

Koh will most likely go for Simpang Renggam, since it is the only seat currently held by Gerakan. He won't be able to contest in Penang any more, as his time there has run out. Taiping (Perak) will be impossible as current MP Nga Kor Ming from DAP will eat him alive.

Puchong (Selangor) is out of the question, as are Kuala Lumpur seats. His only option in KL/Selangor is Segambut, which is an urban area, but even then the odds are against him.

James Chin: Possible seats - none

Koh's problem is not so much where to stand in the next elections, but whether or not he can withstand the internal party coup now. If he survives, he is sure to get a seat.

Khoo Kay Peng: Possible seat - Simpang Renggam

Where Koh will contest all depends on whether he is nudged out of the party over the next couple of months. He is now at the stage of survival, as there is a grand design in place to get rid of him. He has been getting his people to lobby for him, and Johor Gerakan has asked him to contest in Simpang Renggam. His base in Penang is over.

G.Palanivel

Ong Kian Ming: Possible seats - Kapar, Kota Raja,(all Selangor)

Palanivel's situation is tricky. His seat will probably have to be in Selangor, given the fact that no top leader in MIC has a seat in Selangor. It won't be in Hulu Selangor, so he will have to come down to Subang, Kota Raja or Kapar.

Kapar is a big seat which needs a lot of resources. In general, any seat that has PKR is an easier target compared to seats that have PAS. Subang is not as easy to win because it is very much urban with more skeptical voters.

James Chin: Possible seats - none

Palanivel is popular in MIC, but not outside. His track record in Selangor is dismal. Where he could stand depends on movement of voters on the electoral rolls.

Khoo Kay Peng: Possible seats - Hulu Selangor (Selangor), Sungai Siput (Perak)

Things in Selangor are good, so most likely he would go back to his old seat in Hulu Selangor, but I am not too sure if it is wise to ask the incumbent to leave. Another place that is quite symbolic is Sungai Siput, which is long associated with the MIC power base.

However, I don't see Palanivel going beyond Selangor, which is his traditional stomping ground. BN would not want their leaders to run and hide in constituencies that are comfortable. Palanivel needs to show he is confident and take the lead.

M.Kayveas

Ong Kian Ming: Possible seats - none

I don't think he will be given a seat due to the turmoil in his party. In Perak, Umno will definitely take back Grik, and Gerakan may get Taiping. I don't see any pressure on Najib to include PPP in the mix. Not to say that Gerakan has a good chance, but there is even less chance for PPP.

James Chin: Possible seats - none

PPP keeps on borrowing seats from other parties. If they want to contest, it's a matter of finding a party that is willing to 'lend' PPP a seat.

Khoo Kay Peng: Possible seats - none

I don't think the administration sees any benefit to keep a seat for PPP. It will be very tough for Kayveas in that even if PPP is given a seat, it will probably go to a younger candidate. PPP is a sleeper party, and at the end of the day, the political arena has changed.

The KPI for Najib has to be no less than two-thirds. Any less than that and he's on the way out. They have set a precedent that is very tough, and I don't see any room for Kayveas.

Sekutu Umno tercari-cari kerusi untuk bertanding

source:malaysiakini

Btw. can you all trust all these goons? Win or lose, they will be in the cabinet.

Lets vote them out....

cheers.