Pakatan's rural roadmap for GE13....

Pakatan Rakyat's strength in Kuching, Sibu, Miri and Bintulu may be extrapolated to deliver six to eight urban and semi-urban seats in Sarawak, out of 31 to be contested in the next parliamentary elections.

This would be a significant improvement on DAP's two current MPs, Chong Chien Jen in Bandar Kuching and Wong Ho Leng in Bandar Sibu.

However, to make a push for the minimum 112 seats required to take over federal power, Pakatan needs rural seats. Several elements are required for Pakatan's drive to make a dent in rural contests.
Malaysians were taken aback when each Pakatan rally in Sarawak's main towns drew tens of thousands in last week's state election campaign. Hundreds even turned out for Pakatan political gatherings in rural towns like Betong , Sri Aman and Mukah - places that had never seen such political demonstrations.

Middle-class crowds also showed defiance in the giant Pakatan rally in Stutong, Kuching, on the eve of polling, when the police attempted to storm the stage, but were held off by a human chain of Pakatan supporters. The police wisely backed down.

The fear and intimidation exerted by Sarawak's strongman Abdul Taib Mahmud, periodically reinforced by threats that opposition areas will lose out on 'development', seem to have shrunk like the Wizard of Oz. These demonstrations of 'people power' in Sarawak will not remain invisible, even if radio, television and print media, dominated by BN, refuse to report on them.

The impact of the electronic media, including news portals and blogs like Malaysiakini, Sarawak Report and Dayak Baru, has been enormous. The concerted - and expensive - efforts to jam these sites in the last few days of campaigning testified to their influence.

Pakatan will hope to harness these Internet resources. It will work to disseminate to rural communities the awe-inspiring images of 20,000-30,000 voters at the April 15 Stutong rally, as well as the promises of land rights, less corruption and higher oil royalties in the Pakatan manifesto, in the run-up to the 13th general election.

In this way, Pakatan hopes to convince rural voters that a change of government is possible. This would free the rural voters to choose either side in future. This change of mindset would diminish rural communities' fear of reprisals, such as the withdrawal of development expenditure for basic infrastructure such as water, electricity, schools and clinics, if they vote against the BN incumbent.

The impetus of the gigantic crowds during the Sarawak campaign, and Pakatan's successes in 15 seats, will also be likely to spill over to Sabah and Peninsular Malaysia. Pakatan will play on the spectacle of mass rallies in Sarawak to fuel anti-establishment sentiments in urban Sabah seats in particular.

Sleeping with the anaemic?

DAP leader Lim Kit Siang has hinted at a DAP-Snap merger, indicating a desire to accommodate the Dayak-majority party to help the predominantly urban DAP make some headway in rural Sarawak.

There were persistent allegations, strongly denied by Snap leaders, of BN paymasters for Snap's candidates and potential 'frogs' or traitors within its ranks. Snap spent the entire election campaign fending off accusations that its candidates had served only to split the opposition vote.

Its performance in the election was anaemic. Its 26 candidates obtained only 2.3 percent of the popular vote, less than the 3 percent won by the 41 independent candidates. PKR may have taken seats like Telang Usan if Snap had not split the anti-BN vote. It remains doubtful that accepting some Snap members will improve DAP's chances in rural seats.

A far better strategy, over the long haul, would be for both DAP and PKR to work even harder at the grassroots level, establishing active service centres and legal aid offices, to assist rural voters in issues that directly concern them, including land rights and basic services.

The two parties' joint effort to provide transport to Penan girls in Baram to get to school was widely seen as a good start. Both parties will also need to identify credible candidates from diverse ethnic groups to contest in rural and urban seats, to shore up their claims to be multiracial.

Candidate selection crucial

Pakatan would do well to learn from the public relations disaster, caused by its highly publicised embrace of Snap last year followed by squabbling over seats, leading to three-cornered fights.

Both the DAP and PKR will seek to find credible candidates. PKR will have to work harder to impose discipline within its ranks. Disgruntled members such as George Lagong, Dominique Ng and Lina Soo contested against official party candidates. George won as an Independent in Pelagus.

DAP's worst loss came in Bukit Kota in Limbang. Its candidate did not go down well with local voters in this small town. Screening of each potential candidate for social or financial pitfalls, in collaboration with local communities, will be essential to prevent rejection by voters, or party-hopping after the seat is won.

An early, transparent selection process for each candidate, endorsed by the majority of local party members, rather than imposed by 'party central', appears crucial to Pakatan's hopes in all seats, rural and urban. A repeat of the chaotic and very public recriminations during seat negotiations leading up to the state election can be avoided if discussions are begun well in advance, and in earnest.

Fighting electoral fraud

Pakatan faces considerable obstacles in dealing with the possibility of votes being bought or tampered with, during the 13th general election.

A slew of controversies erupted during the Sarawak election. These included a reported offer of a bribe to a PKR candidate to withdraw from the Baleh contest, allegedly made in a police station by men claiming to be from the Special Branch. The DAP released a video recording of postal votes being handed over to an unauthorised intermediary.

In several constituencies, Election Commission (EC) officials refused to release Form 14 vote tallies to Pakatan counting agents. There were reports of ballot papers being marked with signatures by EC officials. A recount in a Senadin contest that BN won by 58 votes, or 0.4 percent of votes cast, was denied. There was even a comically predictable power cut in Dudong during the final stages of the vote counting, prompting DAP supporters to rush towards the ballot boxes in an effort to prevent them from being removed.

Pakatan will need to enlist an army of volunteers to work as polling and counting agents in the upcoming federal elections. The coalition will also have to push hard for voter education. Pakatan's greatest asset in Sarawak remains the intransigence of Taib and his refusal to budge, despite premier Najib Abdul Razak's efforts to dislodge him.
If Taib stays on, he will remain an important election issue in Sarawak - and indeed, in well-informed parts of Sabah and peninsula. Taib will fight tooth and nail to cling to power until the parliamentary election, perhaps hoping to outlast Najib. If he does, Taib's wealth and incessant controversial land deals will continue to rally voters around Pakatan.-Keruah Usit

source:malaysiakini

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