No tsunami in Sarawak but fixed deposit gone...

The opposition promised a tsunami in a state the government calls its "fixed deposit". In the end, no tsunami happened – at most it was a bit of a flood – but the fixed deposit was washed away with the tide. Last week’s Sarawak election was the most highly anticipated in recent memory. Most people in the peninsula have little understanding of the intricacies of Sarawak politics, much less interest in it, yet this recent one piqued many people’s interest and caught their attention.

Perhaps it’s because Barisan Nasional’s performance there could very well impact the timing of the general election. Also, a state-wide election gives people a clearer sense of popular opinion about the BN which is hard to gauge from by-elections (of which there have been many). Let’s look at some of the interesting nuggets that we can glean from the results.

Rise of two-party system

In a state usually dominated by the government, Pakatan Rakyat’s 15 seats does indicate the beginning of a two-party or two-coalition system emerging. Initial estimates showed that BN’s popular vote went down from 62.93% in 2006 to 55.24% in last week’s polling.

It’s worth noting there were many three-cornered fights but in the end, voters largely chose between BN and PR (one independent did manage to win), which does show that the voters do see it as a fight between two parties (SNAP, which contested in 26 seats lost in every one of them).

The Taib factor

Sarawak Chief Minister Tan Sri Taib Mahmud might be a polarising figure for some but his party, PBB, performed exceptionally well, winning all 35 seats it contested. Still, BN’s overall reduced majority is something that Taib has to be accountable for. And he will continue to be fodder for the opposition during the campaign period for the next general election which must be held before 2013.

Taib has indicated he would step down in a few years’ time. But will it be before the next national polls? If not, is there any way Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak will be able to convince him to step down?

SUPP’s fall

Mirroring MCA’s and Gerakan’s loss of Chinese support in Peninsular Malaysia, SUPP has clearly fallen out of favour with the Chinese community in Sarawak. It won only six out of the 19 seats it contested. And of those six seats, four were won by Dayak candidates. The biggest upset was the defeat of SUPP president and Deputy Chief Minister Tan Sri George Chan who lost to DAP first-timer Ling Sie Kiong by 1,590 votes.

Its outmoded election strategy didn’t help and probably hurt its cause. In Chinese language newspapers, SUPP ads read: "If DAP wins in 15 seats, Barisan Nasional still forms government. If SUPP loses in 15 seats, Chinese representation in the government will be wiped out." This outdated approach failed to work for MCA in the peninsula in the last general election and it has now proven to be ineffective in Sarawak as well.

DAP’s rise

Somebody’s loss is someone else’s gain. SUPP’s fall coincided with DAP’s rise as the dominant opposition party, not only in Sarawak but also in the country as a whole. At the federal level it is the biggest opposition party, with more members of parliament than any of its other PR partners. (PKR used to be the biggest party but a spate of defections changed the equation).

DAP’s approach of contesting in fewer seats but winning most of them seems to be working. In contrast, PKR’s approach of contesting in many seats and losing most of them is probably worth a re-think. In Sarawak, PKR ran in 49 seats and won only three.

A delayed general election?

Before the Sarawak polls, there was widespread anticipation that the general election would be held this year. Last week’s result probably puts that speculation to rest. Although the opposition did not make great inroads, its ability to nearly double its previous victories is indication that it could also win more federal seats in Sarawak.

The clear urban-rural divide that emerged in the peninsula is now also evident in Sarawak and it probably will be the case for Sabah as well. This is not something to be taken lightly and will require some time for the government to address. I think we can safely look at late 2012 or early 2013 before the general election. - Oon Yeoh

source:theSun

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